Where Are The Supporting Points Of The Cotton Market?

Zheng cotton continues to weaken. The Fed's statement that the economic outlook is still facing great risk of downfall has brought bad profits to global commodities.

At present, the Zheng cotton market has formed the basic and policy facet. The new year cotton will continue to be the dominant market trend. However, the policy of purchasing and storage has changed the market expectation. If the latter can absorb a large amount of stock, it will also change the demand side.

Spot market stalemate

Recently, the cotton spot market has stabilized and rebounded, and the policy of purchasing and storage has been a strong boost to the market.

At the same time, the downstream is getting warmer recently, and the demand for high-grade cotton is strong.

At present, the market wait-and-see mood is heavier, and because of the existence of the purchase and storage price of cotton farmers and the psychological of selling, the sale is not active at present.

New flowers began to come into the market, but the big cotton ginning factory is not buying much at present. The enthusiasm of cotton growers after harvest is not high. The stalemate must wait for the new flower to go on the market.

State reserves remain zero

In addition, the price of cotton substitute Dacron staple and viscose staple is relatively strong. Up to September 21st, the price of polyester and short staple was 13830 yuan / ton, sticky short quoted at 20040 yuan / ton.

However, judging from recent understanding, the demand for short, short and short cotton as a substitute for cotton has been reduced, and the attractiveness of cotton has been enhanced.

Downstream demand has not been fully recovered

The price of combed 32 yarn continues to pick up, and prices have kept rising since the end of 8.

The recovery of downstream demand started roughly at the end of 7. The early overdue autumn and Winter Christmas orders began to appear one after another. In August, cotton inventories of cotton enterprises and yarn stocks of textile enterprises were digested, and prices could be gradually raised to ease the pressure of losses.

But from the point of understanding, this

22 thousand the upper cover pressure is bigger.

As for the price of cotton, as of 22 days, the FCIndex M sliding price quotation is equivalent to RMB 20364 yuan / ton, 1% tariff quotation is equivalent to 19916 yuan / ton, and the price of cotton to port is 415 yuan / ton higher than the domestic price (sliding price difference) and 33 yuan / ton (1% customs duty difference) respectively, and the price difference has dropped sharply compared with the previous stage.

India announced this week to liberalize cotton exports, triggering market opposition.

Judging from the current price difference, the difference between the 1205 contract and spot price is above 2000 yuan / ton. Based on the supply and demand side and the purchase and storage price of the new year, I think the above 22 thousand strategies can be adopted to establish the selling insurance strategy in stages.

The high domestic cotton price makes the price of the outer cotton more attractive. However, due to the issue of import quotas and the expectation of the future market, domestic manufacturers' imports still have some concerns.

{page_break}

Operation mentality

From the trend, although there is a policy of purchasing and storage and the improvement of the recent cotton industry chain situation, it can not sustain the upward trend of the price.

On the operation, the early empty list can still be held. Speculators still need to maintain light warehouses. The purpose of light storage is to deal with fluctuating quotas, while taking into account the effective utilization of funds, especially when cotton is hard to develop unilaterally at present.

For the hedging, the above 22 thousand can be used to build up a certain proportion of the cotton sold in the new year.