Poor Manufacturing Data &Nbsp; Short Term Zheng Cotton Or Shock Intensified.

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The US purchasing management index (PMI) dropped from 50.8 in September to 51.6 in October, the US Institute of supply management announced on 1. Economists surveyed earlier predicted that the US manufacturing PMI would rise to 52 in October. The data above 50 indicates manufacturing expansion. Data show that US manufacturing industry barely expanded in October. The manufacturing data released by other countries in the world are disappointing.

According to statistics released by China logistics and purchasing Federation in November 1st, the official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index in October dropped to 50.4 after two months' rise, which is lower than the estimated median value of 51.6, reflecting the possibility that the economic growth in the four quarter will continue to decline.

According to the US Department of agriculture in October 31st, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) reported in the weekly crop growth report that as of October 30th, the cotton harvest rate in the United States was 55%, 44% in the previous week, 58% in the same period last year, and 43% in five years. As of October 30th, the excellent and good rate of cotton in the United States was 29%, compared with 29% in the previous week.

There has been rain and snow in parts of Dezhou recently. Cotton picking The work is stagnant. Dezhou agriculture report shows that some of the cotton has been damaged by frost, but the overall color and quality have not been significantly affected. Some cotton farmers are even gratified by the weather, hoping that rainfall can improve the water storage in the dry cotton field, and create favorable conditions for planting cotton in the spring. In November 1, 2011, the Central Cotton store planned to store and store 39100 tons of cotton. The actual turnover was 26430 tons, with a turnover rate of 67.6%, of which 9510 tons were traded in the mainland and 16920 tons in Xinjiang. As of yesterday, cotton temporary storage and storage transactions totaled 144370 tons this year.

[current offer]

　　 US cotton: the US cotton main force closed at 99.26 cents / pound, down 3.82 cents, or 3.81%.

Zheng cotton: Zheng cotton main contract 1205 contract 20255 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton, or 1.22%.

On the spot side, cotton prices continued to show a downward trend yesterday. Cotton sales were still difficult due to insufficient demand for cotton shopping in the lower reaches. As of November 1st, China's cotton price index (CC Index 328) closed at 19381 yuan / ton, down 28 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. In terms of external cotton, the sales of high-grade Australian cotton and American cotton are relatively active in the recent 10/11 years, which is related to some enterprises eager to use quotas. However, as a whole, because of the large number of US cotton coming to Hong Kong in the new year of 11/12 in November, the wait-and-see mood of textile enterprises is enhanced and there is no strong demand for orders. On the same day, China's cotton import index (FC Index M) closed at 115.39 cents / pound, and the discount tax was about 19163 yuan / ton, compared with the same level of real estate cotton price difference was 218 yuan / ton.

As of the date, the main cotton producing area in China Unginned cotton The purchase price is 4.0-4.3 yuan / Jin. Cotton yarn market has not yet stopped, the yarn price center continues to move down, "cotton price drop - yarn price drop - cotton price down" vicious cycle seems to have signs of recovery. At present, the forecast of the price of the fabric market is stronger, and the characteristics of the weak are temporarily difficult to change. In addition, from today's Canton Fair feedback information, textile and clothing export orders as expected, there has been a marked decline. On the whole, under the background of poor terminal demand, whether the state reserve can successfully absorb the excess cotton resources in the market is a key factor for stabilizing cotton prices.

　　 [technical analysis and operational recommendations]

The Greek government announced on Monday night that the decision to carry out a referendum on the latest solution to the European debt crisis disrupted the pace of Europe and hit the high-risk assets such as European and American stock markets, commodities and the euro. In the meantime, the US dollar rebounded sharply for two days and the uncertainties in Europe at the end of the year. The latter will further cause the short-term shocks of the commodities to intensify. The US cotton yesterday returned to the bottom of the 100 integer pass, and it will take 98 lines, the long term and the monthly line. The worst trend this month will be to hit the bottom 2 after the 30 month line. Zheng cotton Yesterday's trading volume was 60 thousand lows, and 1/3 less than its position. The position has been kept at the bottom platform area of 220 thousand hands for 1 consecutive months. The outflow of funds and the further decline of attention have undoubtedly seriously affected the activity of cotton. In the short term, Zheng cotton will once again focus on inter regional fluctuations. Yesterday, the short selling of the main players will be beneficial to the short-term operation today, and we should guard against a rapid fluctuation in a certain direction in the short term. {page_break}

　　 Operation suggestion:

Within 1205 days, Zheng cotton's contract was affected by the fall of the US cotton market. Today's opening will again challenge the 20000 integer pass. The short line operators are backed by 20000. After falling below 20000, they can defend close to the former low and buy 20250 days, and the short-term rebound pressure is 20300.

　　 [disclaimer]:

This recommendation is for reference only in trading, not on the basis of market entry, and is therefore subject to market risk.