2011 Forecast Of New Cotton Price Fluctuation In The Second Half Of The Year

(1) the cash input increased in the first half of the year, and the cost of employing workers rose continuously for 9 years.

Monitoring results, cotton production cash input in the first half of 588.3 yuan / mu (Table 1), an increase of 70.1 yuan / mu. Increase 13.5%. The material cost increased by 52.1 yuan per mu, accounting for 74.3% of the increase, and the labor cost increased by 18.1 yuan / mu, an increase of 23.5%. It is estimated that the annual cost will increase by at least 202.1 yuan per mu, reaching 1444.7 yuan per mu, or up 14%.

　　 (two) cost push Cotton price The new cotton price is expected to rise. Fall back To a reasonable interval

In March, the state multisectoral introduced the new cotton temporary storage and storage price of 19800 yuan /t, deducting 1000 yuan /t processing and transportation cost 18800 yuan /t, 328 grade seed cotton price 4.48 yuan / Jin, is a be reassured The purchase price.

According to the monitoring results, costs continue to drive up the price of raw cotton. In the first half of the year, the cost of material rose by 52.10 yuan per mu, and the cost of lint increased by 612.9 yuan /t to digest. It is estimated that the annual labor cost will rise by 150 yuan per mu, and the lint cost will be increased by 1764.7 yuan /t. The total cost of material and labor costs drove up 2377.6 yuan /t, that is, temporary Purchase and storage price 18800 yuan /t based on the increase of 12.6% yuan 2377.6 yuan /t to digest the pressure of rising costs.

This is in line with the January forecast that the reasonable expected price of new cotton will be between 2.1 and 22 thousand yuan /t, but does not include the increase in land rent. The driving factors of cotton price increase are international oil price, inflation and urbanization.