The Decline Of The National Cotton Is &Nbsp, While The Outer Cotton Break Down.

This week (November 2011 14~18), domestic

Due to the continuous weakening of the spot market and the increase in the enthusiasm of the enterprises, the average daily turnover of cotton storage and storage has exceeded 40 thousand tons, with a total turnover of 211840 tons, an increase of 46880 tons compared with last week, an increase of 28.4%.

As of November 18th, the current year's purchase and storage

Due to the low purchasing power of textile in the lower reaches, spot trading was in a slump, seed cotton prices continued to decline, and cotton purchase and sale.

The market is concerned about the spread of the euro debt crisis to the core countries of the euro area. The euro weakened against the US dollar, the market risk aversion increased, and the commodities were suppressed. New York cotton futures finally fell sharply behind the surrounding market and fell below 95 cents in one fell swoop, and cotton merchants lowered their spot quotes accordingly.

In November 18th, New York cotton futures contract settlement price in December was 94.8 cents / pound, down 4.4 cents / pound, or 4.5%, compared with last week.

The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated on the basis of 1% tariffs. The import cost of the folded renminbi is 18092 yuan / ton, down 417 yuan / ton, or 2.3%, compared with last week. According to the sliding tax, the import cost of the folded renminbi is 18487 yuan / ton, down 413 yuan / ton, or 2.2% lower than last week.

The sales of yarn and cloth are still sluggish. Textile companies have stopped production and restricted production, and finished product inventory remains high. They can only increase sales promotion efforts, and cotton yarn prices continue to fall.

In November 18th, 32 cotton combed yarn prices were quoted at 26250 yuan / ton, down 490 yuan / ton last week, or 1.8%, and the polyester staple price was 10900 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton, or 3.1% lower than last week.

Looking ahead, the international cotton price is running weak.

In recent years, the European debt crisis has continued to ferment, France and Italy are deeply in the trap, especially the debt problem of Italy has become a new focus. The yield of its 1 year treasury bonds has reached 6.1%, reaching a new high in 14 years. The short-term market worries that the European debt crisis will continue to spread to the core countries of the euro area are hard to recede, and the trend of commodities is worrying.

From a fundamental point of view, although the US cotton export contract data surface scenery, but it can not withstand scrutiny.

The US Department of agriculture data showed that as of November 10th, the total number of US cotton export contracts reached 2 million 350 thousand tons in 2011, accounting for 3 million 550 thousand tons of 2/3 forecast for the current year, but the contracted volume exceeded 1 million 600 thousand tons in the previous year, and the net signing volume is only 750 thousand tons this year.

In fact, the export situation of US cotton is not optimistic. As of now, the total volume of export shipments is only 323 thousand tons, down 32.4% from the same period last year, which is 48.2% lower than the average in the past three years, of which 98 thousand tons of shipments to China decreased by 45.1% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 49% over the past three years.

Domestic cotton prices remain oscillating.

The national cotton market monitoring system released in recent 2011, the national cotton production survey report shows that after August, the rainwater in the Yellow River and Yangtze River Basin is too much, which has a certain negative effect on cotton growth, and the output is 3.8 percentage points lower than that predicted in August.

In 2011, cotton planting area in China increased by 79 million 417 thousand mu, an increase of 8.5% over the previous year, with an average yield of 95 kg / mu, an increase of 11.6%, and a total output of 7 million 548 thousand tons, an increase of 21.2%.

Despite the decline in output, domestic textile consumption is shrinking and its prospects are not good. Textile enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu have been saying that the yarn market is very depressed, orders are seriously inadequate, the operating rate of enterprises is reduced, and some enterprises have plans to stop production and leave. The national cotton market monitoring system predicts that domestic consumption will only be around 9 million tons this year, and there may still be a downward trend in the latter stage.

In the new cotton supply season, a considerable portion of resources need to be digested through storage.

So far, the temporary storage capacity has exceeded 600 thousand tons this year, effectively easing the pressure of supply. In the medium term, the loose supply and demand pattern of the cotton market will continue. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain the oscillation pattern under the support of the purchasing and storage policy.