Polyester Industry'S "Profiteering" Era Will End

Last year, under the promotion of high cotton prices, China's chemical fiber industry has made a bumper harvest, especially the polyester industry has entered the "golden age".

However, since 2011, the poly ester industry, which is dominated by the chemical fiber industry, is facing new challenges due to the decline in cotton prices, the quantitative easing policy launched by the United States, the tightening of monetary policy in China, and the sharp impact of domestic and foreign macroeconomic policies such as crude oil and other major commodity prices.

In particular, PTA, the main raw material of polyester, said goodbye to "September".

What is the status of China's polyester industry after more than a year of gold development? What will happen to the supply and demand pattern of polyester industry after the "profiteering" era of PTA? What is the development trend of China's polyester industry?

In response to these problems, hosted by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association and China Chemical Fiber Corporation, the Eighth China International polyester forum, hosted by China netted fiber and British Thailand Global Chemical Co., Ltd. was held in Shanghai on 10-11 November.

More than 150 Representatives from industry leaders, experts and business leaders attended the meeting.

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In the context of a sharp fluctuation in cotton prices, polyester polyester industry has entered a "golden period". Polyester production increased from 12 million 710 thousand tons in 2005 to 25 million 130 thousand tons, an increase of 97.7%, an average annual growth of 14.6%, and its growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the chemical fiber industry.

Last year, the sharp fluctuations in cotton prices allowed the chemical fiber industry to have "good opportunities" and developed very well, especially polyester polyester industry.

Against this background, the capacity and output of polyester polyester industry increased rapidly in China last year, and the equipment technology level was obviously improved, and the product structure was optimized, which promoted the rapid development of the industry and improved the competitiveness of the industry.

Zheng Junlin, Secretary General of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, said that in 2010, China's chemical fiber production was 30 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 85.6% over 2005, with an average annual growth rate of 13.1%.

Polyester fiber production increased from 12 million 710 thousand tons to 25 million 130 thousand tons, an increase of 97.7%, an average annual growth of 14.6%, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the chemical fiber industry.

Polyester production accounts for 81.3% of the total output of chemical fiber, 5 percentage points higher than that in 2005.

During the period of 11th Five-Year, the total investment of China's complete set of polyester equipment was 300 million to 350 million yuan, and the domestic polyester project with large capacity, high starting point and low cost achieved scale efficiency and shortcut.

With the continuous advancement of polyester equipment technology, the profit margin of polyester polyester industry has also improved significantly.

In 2010, the profit rate of chemical fiber industry reached 5.45%, which was 3.65 percentage points higher than that in 2005.

Polyester polyester industry's profit margin increased by 3.99 percentage points to 5.41%.

Although the production capacity of polyester polyester industry in China increased rapidly last year, the development of polyester industry has affected the development of China's polyester industry to a certain extent because of the lagging development of polyester raw materials, and some raw materials are heavily dependent on imports.

Zheng Junlin said that in 2010, China imported about 15 million 600 thousand tons of synthetic fiber raw materials, an increase of 28.2% over 2005, with an average annual growth of 5.1%.

PTA, the main raw material of polyester, has developed rapidly in domestic capacity, and the contradiction between shortages has been alleviated quickly. The dependence on imports dropped from 54% in 2005 to 34% in 2009.

But MEG, another raw material of polyester, has a high degree of dependence on imports.

During the period of 11th Five-Year, the dependence degree of MEG imports has been above 70%. In recent years, it has shown an upward trend, reaching 78% in 2010.

The expansion of raw materials is faced with multiple factors.

With the rapid expansion of PTA capacity in China, the operating rate of PTA devices will decline and profits will shift to PX.

Therefore, the PX plant operating rate will be further upgraded on this basis, expanding its capacity.

For MEG, because of its slow growth, the external dependence will continue to increase.

For polyester industry, raw materials are one of the important factors that affect the development of polyester industry.

At the meeting, Roger Lee, executive director of the British Thailand Global Chemical Co., Ltd. expounded the general situation of the global polyester raw materials market, such as PTA, PX and MEG. It reviewed the current situation of the global polyester raw material market comprehensively, and analyzed the production and demand imbalance caused by the late expansion with detailed data.

On the PTA side, with the construction of PTA factories in mainland China, the demand for PTA imports will be further reduced, and the PTA exporters of South Korea and Taiwan will also face threats.

According to his analysis, PTA's capacity expansion is much faster than its demand rate, so the profits of PTA will also be reduced step by step.

In addition, the impact of PTA futures market on spot market prices will continue to deepen, which will exacerbate the fluctuation of polyester industry chain and will have some impact on the market.

For PX, because of the rapid expansion of PTA capacity in Asia, it will also lead to a relatively tight supply of raw material PX.

However, Roger Lee pointed out that, compared with terminal demand, the supply of PX is enough to meet the projected demand in 2012, and PX's profits can also maintain a good level.

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In recent years, China's dependence on MEG imports has been increasing. Therefore, in the coming years, China will expand its capacity to expand MEG, and these expansion projects will focus on the field of coal chemical industry.

Roger Lee said that the construction of such projects needs to overcome economic and environmental problems.

He also pointed out that the high price of crude oil and naphtha will further increase the pressure of MEG price rise in Asia and Europe.

In addition, Qu Yan, who has been studying the polyester filament Market for many years, analyzes the future development of China's polyester raw materials.

She said that with the rapid expansion of PTA capacity in China, the operating rate of PTA devices will decline and profits will be pferred to PX manufacturers.

Therefore, the PX plant operating rate will be further upgraded on this basis, expanding its capacity.

For MEG, because of its slow growth, the external dependence will continue to increase.

Product demand will further increase.

Combined with the increase and decrease factors, it is estimated that China's Polyester demand in 2015 is 44 million 600 thousand tons, compared with 2010, an average annual growth of 9.3%.

China's PTA demand is expected to grow at an annual average of 9.3% from 24 million 900 thousand tons in 2010 to 38 million 360 thousand tons in 2015.

The sales manager of Samsung petro chemical (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., through the GDP model, predicted the consumption of polyester products in China.

He believes that the growth rate of polyester consumption will decline in the next five years, and the average annual growth rate is expected to remain near 9.6%.

In terms of polyester fiber, it is estimated that in the next five years, the domestic per capita consumption of polyester fiber will reach 12.8kg/, with a total volume of 17 million 800 thousand tons.

The export of polyester fiber is 20 million 500 thousand tons, and the proportion of exports will be reduced.

In terms of PET bottles, it is estimated that in the next five years, the consumption of PET bottles will expand from 3 million 200 thousand tons in 2010 to 5 million 370 thousand tons in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of over 11%.

For the consumption of polyester film, Feng Jia Jun predicts that the next five years will continue to expand, and the application area will also change.

"It is expected that there will be two major demand centers for packaging and electrical and electronic services, with a total demand of nearly 930 thousand tons by 2015."

Based on the above analysis, Feng Jia Jun believes that the demand for polyester in China is expected to be 44 million 600 thousand tons in 2015, combined with the increase and decrease factors, compared with 2010, the average annual growth rate is 9.3%.

In the whole industry, the proportion of polyester fiber dropped from 87.1% in 2010 to 85.9% in 2015.

At the same time, it is estimated that the proportion of PET bottles will rise to 12.3% in 2015.

The average annual growth rate of polyester demand fell from 14.1% in 2005~2010 to 9.3% in 2010~2015.

In addition, China's PTA demand is expected to grow at an annual average of 9.3% from 24 million 900 thousand tons in 2010 to 38 million 360 thousand tons in 2015.

The PTA demand for producing PET bottles increased by an average of 11.4% per year, and the PTA demand for the production of chemical fibers increased by an average of 9% annually.

After the meeting, the experts said in an interview with reporters that China will continue to dominate the global polyester industry and play an important role in the future.

However, due to the current macroeconomic situation is not optimistic, polyester industry "fool can earn money" era has ended, the polyester industry will usher in a new round of shuffling.

The development of the polyester industry in the future will be embodied in two major characteristics. First, the large polyester enterprises will continue to maintain the upstream and downstream industrial chains and continuously enhance the value of the enterprises.

Two, small and medium-sized polyester enterprises will tend to make differentiated products and enhance the added value of products.