The RMB Exchange Rate "7 Consecutive Down" &Nbsp, Will Show More Significant Two-Way Fluctuations.

How do we see the RMB exchange rate "7 consecutive falls"?

It shows that the government has no control over the future.

In December 8th, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell again, which has been since November 30th.

Devaluation does not mean manipulation of exchange rate.

China foreign exchange trading center data show that the 8 day spot market in the morning market, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate once reported more than 6.36 positions, 8 yuan to the US dollar exchange rate intermediate price 6.3319, according to the middle price 5/1000 fluctuation range, the intraday renminbi to the US dollar exchange rate once again touches the trading interval lower limit.

For the change of the RMB exchange rate in the spot market, the 7 representative of the Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiations, Chong Quan, said that the exchange rate issue is closely related to foreign trade.

The devaluation of the renminbi shows that the RMB exchange rate is not controlled by the Chinese government. The Chinese government has never manipulated the exchange rate. The exchange rate of the renminbi fluctuates according to market changes and market demand. This is a very good phenomenon.

Zhao Xijun, vice president of the school of Finance and finance of Renmin University of China, told our reporter that it is not correct to accuse China of manipulating the RMB exchange rate. We are carrying out a managed floating exchange rate system. The purpose of management is to make the exchange rate changes more in line with the economic laws.

Another industry pointed out that in a sense, the devaluation of the renminbi is a good thing, which means that the RMB exchange rate has finally come to a two-way fluctuation, and it also sends a warning signal to overseas investors that the RMB exchange rate will not fluctuate upward or fluctuate in the future.

This may dispel the idea that some hot money is coming to China.

Internal and external factors lead to short-term decline

In the analysis of the reasons for the continuous limit of RMB foreign exchange, the industry believes that there are many reasons for this, both international and domestic factors.

Zhao Xijun pointed out that the factors that affect the exchange rate are very complicated, which mainly include long-term fundamentals, short-term market factors and psychological factors involved in foreign exchange market traders.

"First, because the growth rate of China's imports exceeds that of exports under the new growth mode, the trade surplus is narrowing.

This means that the supply and demand of foreign exchange market based on trade will be more balanced than before.

Secondly, the market supply and demand of funds have also been affected.

China is now encouraging foreign investment, so domestic enterprises will have more capital outflows.

In addition, as the global economy continues to be dragged down by debt problems in Europe and America, many institutions, in order to avoid risks, reduce foreign investment and sell overseas assets to recover funds, which will slow down the flow of capital.

Third, we must not exclude the fact that there is a large number of speculative funds coming in and increasing the volatility of the market.

Zhao Xijun analysis said, "from the current basic factors leading to capital flows, it is still relatively normal, but it does not exclude the role of speculative factors, is the result of a combination of factors, we need to carefully judge."

Guo Tianyong, a professor at Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the market has always been accustomed to the appreciation of the renminbi, which is somewhat inappropriate or even panic for the recent devaluation.

Devaluation is certainly due to instability in the international market, domestic economic downturn and speculative capital speculation, but its macro risk control also means that the degree of exchange rate marketization is improving.

At the same time, moderate depreciation is not only conducive to exports, but also reduces the pressure of international hot money inflow, reducing central bank's basic money supply, and helps to curb capital bubbles.

Future two-way volatility may be stronger.

The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been touched down for several consecutive trading days. Does this mean that the trend of RMB appreciation has changed?

Cao Fengqi, director of the financial and securities research center of Peking University, said that the current RMB dollar exchange rate continued to decline for a short period of time. In the medium to long term, the RMB is still rising to the US dollar, and the turning point is too early.

"People are too sensitive and impetuous about the RMB's limit, which is by no means the turning point of the RMB exchange rate."

Tan Yaling, director of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, told our reporter, "we observed that although there was a big fluctuation in the intraday market, the final closing rate was not big.

For RMB, we should wait and see with a normal mind. The past appreciation mentality is not normal. Now the more tense mentality of devaluation is not conducive to our grasp and recognition.

Market economy and price law should be undulating and curvilinear.

In the future, there will be more two-way fluctuations in the RMB to us dollar exchange rate.

For the future trend, Zhao Xijun said that it is not easy to predict that the narrowing of the trade surplus is bound to be a trend. Short-term fluctuations may be more frequent, increasing the risks faced by foreign trade enterprises.