Cotton Is Winding Away From The Bottom.

After the breakthrough of the long term running area of less than 18000 points last year, the market participants' main structure continued to grow and scale grew steadily.

In the first two months of 2011, Zheng cotton price continued to rise, and the continuous contract rose to a record high of 33720 yuan / ton from 28500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.

After the mid-term shock, the lowest price of 19100 points was set down in October 21st, and then a small rally was launched, seeking new price support again, and building the bottom form near the low point of 19300.

The 2011 year went on vigorously, in this year, global finance.

The trend of Zhengzhou cotton since the listing can be divided into three stages: early in the year, hot money stares at cotton and leads the commodity market; in the middle of the year, there are more air differences and large fluctuations in cotton prices; in the latter part of the year, the textile mills were destroyed and the cotton prices fell from the high.

The main reasons leading to this trend are three: first, the sharp reduction in global cotton production in 2009/10 caused empty inventories and gave investors ample reason for speculation.

Textile mills have also stepped up procurement efforts, lest they should not cook rice at last.

Many varieties, including American cotton, Central Asia cotton and Brazil cotton, are all wrapped up in the global textile mill.

Under the cooperation of the external environment, the global cotton market has attracted a lot of capital, and cotton prices have also set a record high. Two, with the high price of cotton, the market believes that this year's cotton planting area in the United States and the world will be greatly improved, and the focus of investors will gradually shift to the battle of area.

However, Japan's earthquake triggered a financial tsunami, and the lack of Japanese demand caused the global commodity market to vibrate.

In addition, it is worth noting that the US cotton intention planting area is much lower than the market expectations and China's cotton prices continue to weaken to allow the two sides to compete fiercely; three, the optimistic expectation of the global market outlook in the middle of the year has been on the decline. With the increasing sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the US dollar index has risen sharply.

In addition, the rapid rising cost pressure of textile mills has always been difficult to digest in the downstream market. In addition, many countries around the world have begun to raise interest rates.

Multiple pressures have caused textile mills to break up, and USDA's US exports of cotton are expected to continue to decline.

Zhengzhou cotton futures prices bottomed out in August 31, 2011, and cotton futures prices began to rise near 19910 yuan in September.

Cotton futures in 2013 are expected to rebound to around 30% of the drop, which is 24000 yuan.

This position is in the middle of 2011, and the price of the anti bullet plate area is very high.

In addition, the market price is now returning to the 60 day long market average cost line location. At present, the pressure line is tightly wound with the K-line. After repeated entanglement, it will choose a breakthrough direction.

Therefore, from the golden section and the long-term market cost, Zheng cotton has a very large possibility of forming a stage at the bottom line of 20000 yuan.

Recently, Zheng cotton prices basically oscillate in the range of 20500 - 21000 yuan, and the market is relatively stable.

At the present stage, Zheng cotton has already appeared a short-term upward channel. The upward trend line is repressing the price adjustment space. At present, Zheng cotton is in the horizontal arrangement.

The 80 cent / pound area of the US cotton is the most frequently inflection point for ICE cotton price.

On the whole, Zheng cotton price is expected to break away from the bottom, and the market will seek higher price pressure upward.