Chemical Fiber Industry: Deep Exploration

During the opening year of 12th Five-Year, the chemical fiber industry and enterprises are planning and layout for the next 5 years, and strive to go deep through these 5 years.

Operation: steady growth but slowing down month by month

Yield increase steadily

Important data: in 1~10 months, the production of chemical fiber still maintained a relatively fast growth, and the output reached 27 million 969 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 15.42% over the same period last year.

Among them, the production of polyester fiber was 22 million 973 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 16.73% over the same period, nylon 1 million 317 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 8.41%, and viscose staple production of 1 million 559 thousand and 100 tons, an increase of 24.71% over the same period last year.

Reason analysis: after more than 10 years of rapid growth, China's chemical fiber industry will "12th Five-Year" average annual growth rate down to 6%.

However, the adjustment of growth rate and the pformation of development mode all need a process. In addition, with the expansion of the application field of chemical fiber, its demand keeps increasing every year, and there is still much room for the growth of chemical fiber volume.

Fluctuation is obvious.

Important data: since entering 2011, the market of chemical fiber products has fluctuated greatly. Most of the prices of chemical fiber products have risen slightly from January to mid March. After mid March, they fell rapidly, and the three quarter oscillation increased, but the second half of 9 fell rapidly.

Such as polyester filament FDY 100D in mid February to reach the high point of 15800 yuan / ton, in late March began to decline rapidly, to mid May to a trough of 14000 yuan / ton, 6~9 months showed a slight fluctuation upward trend, since September after half a month, the market began to 15500 yuan / ton down.

Reason analysis: after January, the price of many kinds of chemical fiber varieties is mainly driven by the rising price of raw materials.

For example, the international crude oil price was slightly consolidated in January. Since the end of 2 months, crude oil prices have risen rapidly, breaking through 100 US dollars / barrel due to the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa.

Under the influence of high domestic and international cotton prices, soaring crude oil prices and tight supply of PX, PTA prices rose rapidly, breaking through the high point of last November.

After that, inventory pressure and capital pressure of chemical fiber plant increased significantly, and the weaving industry started to recover slowly, which had a certain impact on the demand of chemical fiber.

Month by month drop

Important data: in the 1~10 month of this year, the chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 25 billion 324 million yuan, an increase of 17.24% over the same period last year. In 1~8 months, the total profit of the industry reached 20 billion 741 million yuan, up 39.50% from the same period last year, but the growth rate has dropped rapidly.

According to monthly data, the profit of chemical fiber industry showed a decreasing trend in April. Profits in 5, 6 and July were significantly lower than 3 and April.

In August, China entered the traditional peak season, and the total profit of industry rose.

Reason analysis: since the beginning of this year, the price of cotton, a major textile raw material, has been greatly fluctuated, which has greatly affected the trend of chemical fiber prices.

The first half of the year, polyester staple, viscose staple fiber and cotton prices are basically the same trend between the three, followed by a drop in cotton prices fell rapidly.

It was not until 7 and August that there was a departure.

The sluggish demand, the gradual pressure from downstream to upward, and so on, have become the drivers of the data falling month by month.

In addition, the cyclical law of industry operation is also playing a role.

After more than 10 years of rapid development, the operation cycle of the chemical fiber industry has been shortened from 4~5 to 2~3.

After the resumption of growth in the first half of 2009 and two and a half years, it is also normal to enter the decline stage.

Slowdown in demand

Important data: 1~8 months, chemical fiber downstream related 9 varieties, in addition to silk and woven fabrics, output increased year-on-year, of which the main varieties of chemical fiber yarn grew 18.28%, chemical fiber cloth increased 16.73%, cord fabric increased 14.82%, non-woven fabric increased 11.84%.

But compared with the same period last year and last year's growth rate, the growth rate of chemical fiber yarn, cord fabric, non-woven fabric and woolen machine fabric has slowed down this period.

Analysis of reasons: since the beginning of this year, the global economic situation has been downgrading, and the debt crisis in the United States, Europe and other countries and regions has spread rapidly. On the one hand, external demand has been sluggish, and on the other hand, the domestic economy has been affected, and domestic demand has also been restrained to a certain extent.

The upstream supply is growing geometrically, and the slowdown in downstream demand leads to the gradual upward pmission of inventory, making the contradiction between demand and supply gradually increasing.

In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi weakened external demand, leading to partial pfer of export orders to lower cost regions such as Vietnam and India.

Investment fever

Important data: in recent two years, the investment enthusiasm of chemical fiber industry is soaring.

In 1~10 months, the number of construction projects in the chemical fiber industry reached 806, 528 new projects, and the actual investment amounted to 60 billion 619 million yuan, up 49.69% from the same period last year.

The growth of investment in fixed assets of polyester and nylon reached 50.03% and 39.31% respectively, and the growth rate of other synthetic fiber industry was as high as 73.92%.

The growth of 107.26% fixed assets investment made of chemical pulp is up to 91.24%.

Analysis of the reasons: in 2010, the chemical fiber industry encountered more than 10 years of the best prospects, a large number of corporate profits are relatively rich.

In the first half of this year, according to some key chemical fiber cluster areas, the operation situation is better than the first half of last year.

Under the stimulation of favorable factors, the chemical fiber industry is optimistic inside and outside the industry.

At the same time, raw materials and other constraints highlight the industry's interest in investment pulp and so on.

Many enterprises, through a new round of investment, actively take advantage of the backwardness of equipment and technology, hoping to gain advantage in the future competition.

Price rise

Important data: 1~10 months, the total import of chemical fiber 696 thousand and 500 tons, a slight decrease of 3.46% compared with the same period last year, while the import value increased by 17.12%, indicating that import prices have increased significantly.

In 1~10 months, the total export volume of chemical fiber industry reached 1 million 990 thousand and 700 tons, up 25.74% from the same period, and the export amount increased by 50.29% significantly over the same period, indicating that the price of export products increased significantly.

Reason analysis: influenced by macro policy and other factors, the cost of enterprise loan has risen since this year, and the difficulty of financing has increased.

And the cost of raw materials, employment, energy and environmental protection has been rising continuously. The inflation pressure has continued throughout the year, which has increased the risk of enterprise operation.

Development: layout "12th Five-Year" path of chemical fiber power

Transformation and upgrading

Typical events: all kinds of exhibitions and conferences held during the opening year of "12th Five-Year" are the core themes of pformation and upgrading.

At the seventeenth China International Chemical fiber conference held in September this year, the Yellow Book of "China 12th Five-Year" development plan of China chemical fiber industry was officially released by the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, which pointed out the direction and path for the next step of pformation and upgrading of the chemical fiber industry.

The book summarizes the development of the 11th Five-Year "chemical fiber industry", focuses on the situation faced by the industry during the "12th Five-Year" period and the development trend of the world's chemical fiber industry, and explains in detail the industry development goals and plans for 12th Five-Year.

Reporter commentary: in the year 12th Five-Year, the industry and enterprises are planning and layout for the next 5 years, some continue to extend upstream, some develop downstream, others go out, and some come in.

There is only one goal: in depth pformation of the industry development mode, from quantity to quality and efficiency, and in 2015, the first goal is to achieve a strong power of chemical fiber.

At present, the chemical fiber industry has entered a "mature period" from the fast growing stage.

During the "12th Five-Year" period, China's chemical fiber industry, which has experienced more than 10 years of rapid growth, will slow down and increase its annual growth rate to around 6%.

By 2015, the difference of chemical fiber production from the current 46% to 60%, the self sufficiency rate of high-grade fabrics and products increased from 70% to 85%, and the production of high-performance fibers increased from 55 thousand tons to 160 thousand tons. At the same time, the important indicators of technological progress, such as R & D input ratio, labor productivity and the proportion of new product output, continued to improve.

Mode innovation

Typical events: on April 7th ~8, the five two session of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association and the industry innovation and development forum was held in Changle, Fujian.

At the meeting, Duan Xiaoping, President of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, proposed that during the "12th Five-Year" period, the development mode of chemical fiber enterprises will be further differentiated into three directions: some enterprises will further extend to the upstream areas, and win by the advantages of large scale and low cost; some enterprises will continue to develop downstream and take the road of differentiation; some enterprises will diversify their strategies and devote themselves to other fields outside the chemical fiber, thus enriching the source of funds.

In September, the seventeenth China International Chemical fiber conference special edition "change of 12th Five-Year" mode, which was launched by this newspaper, summarized and analyzed all aspects of the development mode of "12th Five-Year" chemical fiber industry.

Reporter's commentary: the future big powers competition is not only the competition of scientific and technological innovation and industrial development, but also the development mode and development road of different times.

At present, the industry is in a critical period of pformation and upgrading, and all kinds of factors are undergoing profound changes.

The entry into the middle income countries and the lack of momentum for export growth will all affect the development of the industry in all aspects.

When the world's textile and chemical fiber production capacity has been pferred to China, other countries and regions have gradually lost the power to develop new technologies and products.

Therefore, it is no longer possible for China's chemical fiber industry to take the mode of introduction, digestion, absorption and re innovation since reform and opening up as the main way of technological progress.

The mode innovation is not only reflected in the rapid growth mode of the chemical fiber industry, which has been reduced for more than 10 years, but also to the growth of quality and efficiency. It is also reflected in the gradual pformation of the low value-added and homogeneous survival mode and the development of a more diversified and differentiated enterprise.

Strategic emerging industries

Typical events: since last year, the government issued the decision on accelerating the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries. After joining the seven industries of energy saving, environmental protection, new generation of information technology, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, new materials and new energy vehicles, the chemical fiber industry has attracted wide attention.

In this year's fifth Bio Industry Conference, high-tech fiber materials forum and SAMPE composite exhibition, the strategic emerging industries of the chemical fiber industry are further reflected.

Reporter commentary: fully aware that chemical fiber flows through the "blood" of strategic emerging industries. On the one hand, it helps to re position the chemical fiber industry in keeping pace with the times and enhance industry confidence; on the other hand, it also enables the industry to accurately grasp the development direction of strategic emerging industries, and timely understand the latest policies to promote the development of the industry and make effective use of them.

At present, industrial textiles have become the new growth point of the textile industry in 12th Five-Year, and more than 90% of its raw materials come from chemical fiber.

In addition to the upgrading and upgrading of traditional chemical fibers, carbon fiber, aramid and other high-performance fiber materials, such as chitosan fiber and other biomass fibers, have laid the raw material foundation for many fields of Applied Industrial Textiles, and they all have typical characteristics of strategic emerging industries.

Circular economy

Typical events: at the seventeenth China International Chemical fiber conference held in Wujiang in September, the China chemical fiber recycling economic alliance was established and issued a "green declaration", showing that the industry is determined to implement the circular economy and green low-carbon economy.

Reporter commentary: Although the chemical fiber industry has made great achievements in the recycling economy, the situation facing the future development is still very grim. Land shortage, energy shortage, shortage of raw materials and insufficient environmental capacity have become the key factors restricting the sustainable development of the industry.

During the "12th Five-Year" period, the chemical fiber industry will accelerate the research and development of biomass renewable and biodegradable materials, actively promote cleaner production, strengthen the comprehensive utilization of resources, and establish a recycling economy development mode of chemical fiber industry.

At the same time, the recycling scale of waste polyester products, chemical fiber fabrics and garments reached 7 million tons.

I believe that the chemical fiber recycling economic alliance will set an example for the industry to develop circular economy.

Bio Industry Roadmap

Typical event: in June 19th, the Fifth China biological industry conference, which lasted for 3 days, ended in Shenzhen.

The Forum on biomass fiber and biochemical raw materials held in the conference focuses on the 30 year roadmap of China's biomass fiber and biochemical raw materials technology and industry development.

The 30 year road map emphasizes the forerunner and feasibility, which will help our country to seize the commanding heights of biomass fiber and biochemical raw material industry and keep pace with the international advanced level.

Reporter commentary: at present, the unique advantages of biomass fiber and biochemical raw materials make it the only way for the chemical fiber industry to achieve low-carbon and sustainable development.

The biomass fiber and biochemical raw materials industry will remain enduring vitality. The broad fields covered can provide attractive development space for all kinds of production enterprises, research institutes, information units, traders and so on.

As the industry is still in the initial stage of the world, the focus of 12th Five-Year is to lay a solid foundation and guide, and compile a roadmap for 30 years of science and technology and industry development to guide the industry.

It can be predicted that the current chemical fiber products mainly come from the technical system of the petroleum industry, and will eventually achieve a benign pition to the biomass industrial technology system.

"Super Imitation cotton"

Typical events: in August 16th, the national science and technology supporting technology project organized by the technological innovation strategic alliance of the chemical fiber industry was launched in Beijing.

Reporter commentary: the development of "super Imitation cotton" has become an important task of the textile industry in 12th Five-Year, because it can make up for the huge gap of natural fibers such as cotton, can meet the new expectations of people living a better life, and can enhance the added value of chemical fiber products and promote the upgrading of the industry.

It can be said that "super Imitation cotton" is a concrete embodiment of upgrading traditional textile industry with new and high technology.

During the "12th Five-Year" period, the industry will achieve a target of 8 million tons of super cotton imitation.

It should be noted that the super cotton imitation project should not only achieve major breakthroughs in technology and projects, but also form an effective technological innovation mode, and maintain market order and enhance product value through the construction of standards and testing systems.

Raw material construction

Typical events: this year, Zhejiang Hengyi Group invested in Brunei construction and refinery factory project. The project was approved by the local government. The first phase project invested about 2 billion 500 million US dollars. It used part of Brunei's crude oil and condensate to produce gasoline, diesel and aviation oil, as well as chemical materials xylene and benzene for textile production.

This project marks Hengyi, a chemical fiber enterprise, to go deep into the upstream area - refining.

Reporter commentary: raw material problem is the lifeline of textile industry.

Although China has become a large country of chemical fiber, the main raw materials from the petroleum industry system, PTA, MEG, CPL and other important raw materials have long been heavily dependent on imports. Even if they belong to viscose fibers in the man-made fiber industry, more than 50% of their raw materials must be imported from abroad.

In order to solve this bottleneck problem, many enterprises have seized market opportunities, invested heavily in building PTA production bases, and gradually reduced the dependence on imports. Many enterprises are eager to invest in CPL projects, but suffer from their high technical threshold, and at present, substantial progress is not made.

It can be predicted that with the development of raw materials in the industry, the bottleneck of raw materials will gradually be eased during the "12th Five-Year" period.

But it is worth noting that the expansion of chemical fiber production capacity should also be coordinated with the pace of raw material construction, otherwise it is still difficult to get rid of the large number of imports.

Docking of industrial chain

Typical events: in November 25th, the joint meeting of "2011 functional fiber and home textile product development" jointly organized by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association and China Textile Industry Association held in Taicang, Jiangsu. It opened a prelude to the seamless connection between chemical fiber enterprises and home textile enterprises.

Organizers said they will continue to innovate the conference mode and expand the scope of docking so that more enterprises can benefit from it.

Reporter commentary: in fact, this is by no means the only embodiment of the industrial chain docking.

Over the past two years, the industry has increasingly realized the importance of organic collaboration in all aspects of the industrial chain, and is strengthening cooperation by organizing alliances, CO organizing various activities and undertaking projects jointly.

In the industrial chain of chemical fiber and other textile materials, such as textile and clothing, the more the labor intensive and personalized characteristics are reflected, the more the upward movement, the more obvious scale characteristics, the more investment in technology development.

This is determined by the characteristics of each link of the industrial chain, and it is a long-term objective situation.

All links should be complementarity and strive to achieve optimal allocation of resources and jointly promote the progress of the textile industry.

Listing and financing

Typical events: in May 9th, Zhejiang Yiwu huatin nylon Limited by Share Ltd was successfully listed on the Shanghai stock exchange A share market and became the first IPO listed private enterprise in Yiwu.

In May 18th, Zhejiang Tong Kun group successfully issued A shares "Tong Kun" on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Tong Kun has become the leading board listed company since the stock reform in Jiaxing. It is also the first IPO listed company in Tongxiang.

Reporter commentary: following the listing of Rongsheng group, Huating group and Tong Kun group successfully landed on the main board market this year, and are praised by the industry as the first group of large scale listed private chemical fiber enterprises.

The next second group is even bigger.

At present, the main purpose of most chemical fiber enterprises to choose a market is financing. Listing has become a booster for further development of chemical fiber enterprises, and is also a need for China's textile industry to change from "big" to "strong".

However, it needs to be reminded that the phenomenon of chemical fiber enterprises getting together and going public is hidden. Especially when the macroeconomic environment and policy environment are not optimistic, the blind listing of enterprises will affect normal operation and is not conducive to long-term development.

Moreover, the success of listing does not mean once and for all.