2012 China'S Home Industry Ten Big Conjectures: Alive Is Victory.

The prophecy of the Maya's Doomsday, the horror of the movie 2012 and the years of fermentation, the 2012 of the legendary truth is in the complex complex of anxiety, hesitation and verification.

At the same time, a United States than in 2008.

The cold reality, the severe challenge, has just begun.

Upward, the regulation of real estate is no longer loose; downward stagflation brings inflation and domestic demand is not strong.

The domestic industry itself has serious overcapacity, and the risk of manufacturing closures is increasing.

2012, a batch of home business enterprises will die in the end of the hearsay.

2012 living is equivalent to the expensive Noah's Ark "ship ticket".

For home furnishing industry, the shuffle and fight drama of life and death will be staged in 2012, just like that blockbuster, spectacular and tragic.

In the tide of survival of the fittest, the process may be cruel, ending or optimistic: the systemic risk reduction, order and pattern can be well reconstructed.

2012, to live is to win.

20 thousand and 120 conjecture of Pan home industry

Conjecture 1: the overall Pan home industry: the market is decreasing and competition is intensifying.

With the reduction of the rigid demand in the upstream real estate market, the home decoration market is also faced with the situation of "too few people".

The reduction of the overall market means that competition will become more intense.

At the same time, the competition between high-end brands and low-end brands will also become more competitive next year.

Conjecture two: the impact of real estate on Pan home: dangerous organic

Under the premise that the rigid demand of real estate is generally not optimistic, the days of family businesses are almost sad.

On the other hand, with the increase in the amount of real estate projects such as commercial real estate and urban complex, home enterprises may find opportunities in this regard.

Conjecture three: producers: small and medium-sized enterprises are having a bad day.

With the increase of raw materials and labor costs, the reduction of orders and the tightening of credit, small and medium-sized enterprises such as wooden doors, flooring, hardware and other industries all appeared "failure" and "go".

Many small and medium-sized home furnishing enterprises are facing severe challenges in 2011.

Thus, the days of SMEs in 2012 will also be difficult.

Conjecture four: manufacturers: first-line brands intensify industry integration

Sophia and nature listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Hong Kong stock market, which created a "listing tide" for the Pan home industry.

Furniture, wooden doors, bathroom, cabinets, wardrobe and other industries brand also accelerated the pace of integration in the industry.

2012 will be a year of first-line brand development.

Conjecture five: distributors: strong desire for agent brand

If the small and medium-sized home enterprises feel the "cold winter", then many dealers are left with "bitter" can be recalled.

While visiting the market, I heard that the most popular voice of distributors is to hope to represent "big brands".

As consumers are paying more and more attention to the first-line brand, the concept of brand agency of "small house and big demand" will be greatly strengthened in 2012.

Conjecture six: Store: "cold and clear door" and "closing shop door" will continue to be staged.

At the beginning of the year, the "closed shop door" of best buy was still vivid. At the end of the year, I visited Changzhou red star, the Guangzhou Vietnam and the international building materials market and saw only a scene of "desolate".

Home stores in 2011 were not very good, and chain stores also stopped expanding.

In 2012, the "cold door" and "shut shop door" of home stores will continue to be staged.

Conjecture seven: good industry in 2012: doors and windows, bathroom, furniture, lighting, home textiles, soft clothing, home appliances.

The shuffling of doors and windows, bathroom, furniture and other industries will intensify in 2012, and the pace of front-line brand integration will also accelerate. For the industry, 2012 is still a good year.

Lighting, home appliances and other industries rely on relevant policies, enterprises will be more invested, and in 2012 will also see unexpected market feedback.

With the continuous improvement of the refined decoration policy, consumers' "light decoration, heavy decoration" concept will influence the industry of home textiles, soft clothing and other industries will also usher in "spring".

Conjecture eight: 2012: the power industry: wardrobe, cabinet, staircase, floor, mahogany, paint, hardware.

In 2011, the test of customized products will last until 2012. Wardrobe, cabinet, staircase and other industries will enter the brand competition year in 2012.

The news from flooring and mahogany industry is that the market is not good in 2012, and enterprises need to work harder.

In 2012, the market prospect of coatings and hardware industry was not optimistic by the industry, and the competition of small and medium-sized brands was becoming more and more intense.

Conjecture nine: consumers: HOLD is the most important thing to live in a purse.

In 2011, the word "HOLD" not only became a fashion buzzword, but even more frightening, it really made consumers see the purse more tightly.

The reduction of budget for home decoration makes consumers more cautious in choosing home products.

"HOLD pocket money" reminds enterprises that promotional activities will be stronger in 2012.

Conjecture ten: integrity management will run through the whole 2012.

In 2011, the "Da Vinci incident", "IKEA recall incident" and "solid wood furniture environmental protection were questioned" made the home industry shrouded in a shadow of integrity.

Lessons learned, good faith management, is every home enterprise in the consumer vigorously propaganda.

There is no doubt that integrity management will run through the whole 2012.

Furniture: channel sink, live in the dream of "going to the countryside"

In 2011, the furniture industry was deeply trapped in several big whirlpools, such as overcapacity, market downturn, high cost and integrity crisis.

[details] in order to cope with the pressure of rising costs, furniture enterprises in Guangdong and Zhejiang have pferred production bases.

At the same time, in order to stimulate market sales, diversified development of furniture channels: the rise of enterprises' direct forces, the trend of e-commerce, and the expansion of some traditional stores, leading to the withdrawal of dealers.

Affected by the real estate depth regulation, the furniture market is getting cold.

However, with the overall construction of the affordable housing, the overall demand for the furniture market is still expanding.

The medium and low grade market will become the new growth pole of the furniture market, and will encourage the enterprise to sink.

Although the furniture market is in the doldrums, the follow-up development is still promising.

The famous enterprises such as all friends, furniture and furniture continue to expand, and actively layout the regional market.

In 2012, the furniture market will continue to be cold in winter. The main battlefield of furniture will be pferred to the three or four line cities.

Enterprises should actively adjust the market positioning according to the changes of the consumption structure of the furniture market, expand the channels for intensive cultivation, and develop the middle and low end market.

Bathroom: alive, there is hope.

The bathroom industry has been stagnant since 08 years ago.

However, with the improvement of the market, the bathroom industry has made gratifying achievements. On the one hand, the status of the national sanitary brand has been rising. On the other hand, the Chinese enterprises have made adjustments in accordance with the trend of the times and shifted from single products to the development of the whole bathroom.

Due to the increase of real estate regulation, the bathroom industry has been frustrated.

With the increase of raw materials and the increase of labor costs, the small and medium-sized enterprises in sanitary ware industry are especially "injured", and there is a "collapse tide" phenomenon in some places.

In recent two years, the national defense enterprises have moved the "battlefield" from the first tier cities to the two or three line market.

But with the accession of international brands, the rural market competition is becoming more and more intense.

Ruan Jiaming, head of Kohler, said: there will be a selective entry into the two or three line market.

With the increase of affordable housing, commercial real estate and renovation of old houses, the demand for bathroom rigidity will increase.

Especially in the rural market, the prospects are considerable.

Doors and windows: extension area, its own way of life

In 2011, the market environment of doors and windows deteriorated, industry competition intensified, the shuffling accelerated, and the polarization of enterprises was serious: large enterprises increased their expansion and small businesses accelerated their deaths.

To increase production capacity and occupy the market opportunity, doors and windows enterprises accelerate the mechanization process, strengthen cooperation in industrial chain, and take the parallel way of scale and branding.

As a downstream industry of real estate, the overall development of doors and windows industry is still stable.

With the construction of affordable housing and the improvement of rural consumption capacity, the rigid demand of doors and windows is still increasing.

Some manufacturers continue to extend the industrial chain, and actively layout the three or four line market.

In the absence of traditional channels and the deserted retail market, engineering documents are relatively popular.

At the same time, the change of consumption structure has constantly broken down the doors and windows market, and the functional doors such as super mute, art, low carbon and environmental protection have springing up continuously.

In 2012, the competition in doors and windows industry will be more intense.

The industrial chain will extend to the field of hardware accessories.

At the same time, the rural market has become the new focus of the layout of enterprises this year.

Cabinets: front-line brands live in the "spring"

In 2011, the whole cabinet industry was on the rise of the brand.

At the same time, influenced by many factors, such as the European debt crisis, rising raw materials and rising labor costs, many cupboard enterprises are in trouble again.

The cross-border March of many home industry predators has intensified the competition in the cabinet industry.

The central government's continued control of the real estate market and tightening of bank credit have made the property market slump and turnover sharply shrinking, making the cabinet industry worse.

In the difficult environment of internal and external environment, the sales volume of cabinets has decreased a lot, and the days of cabinet enterprises have also been very difficult.

Small and medium-sized cabinet enterprises believe that the cold winter has arrived, and the first line brand is still in the spring.

In the next two or three years, the market capacity of the cupboard is expected to double, and the market capacity will be one hundred billion in the next 5 to 10 years.

Whether the national security housing construction is promoted or the two or three line cities and rural areas, the market prospect is still broad.

Wardrobe: listing makes big cards better.

Cross boundary and shuffle are the hottest words in the wardrobe industry in 2011.

Data show that the overall wardrobe customization share increased from 25.8% in 2010 to 33.6% in 2011, and the overall market capacity of the wardrobe is only 10% of the total market. The market space is huge, and many new brands are pouring into the wardrobe industry.

The upstream real estate market is regulated by policies, and price reduction is inevitable.

Buyers who originally wanted to buy houses were also on the sidelines. Housing pactions showed a sharp downward trend in volume and price, and the wardrobe industry in the lower reaches also failed to "act independently".

The industry giant Optima group has been growing against the trend and its wardrobe has increased by 90%.

Sophia and the successful listing of nature in the wardrobe industry brought more and more wardrobe enterprises to realize the strategic significance of leveraging capital market and accelerating pformation and upgrading.

With the increase of raw material prices, labor costs and tight capital chain, the market share of small businesses with low prices will be dominated by big crocodiles and big brands in the industry. Small businesses will have to withdraw from the market in fierce competition.

Floor: living is opportunity.

At present, China's flooring market presents a chaotic situation of "production and marketing imbalance, terminal market congestion", and the county level market has become the focus of flooring enterprises.

Property market "winter", leading to the development of the flooring industry bottlenecks.

Part of the floor small and medium-sized enterprises, due to the capital chain rupture, can not start normal operation.

In the downturn of the housing market, the flooring industry has been "listed wind".

In March last year, the new oasis took the lead in landing the stock market in Hongkong. The "China floor" of nature followed closely on the market in Hongkong. Del's household was successfully listed in November 11th last year in question. Recently, the news of the "floor to market" of the aesthetic floor has spread.

The flooring industry is experiencing a large-scale "shuffle" movement. Those enterprises without independent innovation capability are bound to be eliminated, which is conducive to the development of the flooring industry.

As the country speeds up the development of new countryside, the rural market is a new hope for the flooring industry.

Staircase: living in colder winter than ever before

Zhang Jiagang, chairman of art staircase, told the second Asia Pacific home forum that "the staircase industry has suffered the most brutal winter".

Although it is just a saying, it shows the downturn of the staircase industry in 2011.

As the large apartment and luxury housing project is the main source of customers in the staircase industry, the tightening of the real estate market will directly affect the staircase industry in 2012.

The competition in the staircase industry will also grow from 2011 to 2012.

The influence of regional brands on the local market will also be deepened in 2012.

The staircase industry will live in the colder winter of 2012 than before.

Mahogany: rising raw materials pressure is not easy to live.

In 2011, for mahogany furniture, the rise of raw materials is the most talked about and the most stressful factor.

Because of the rising raw materials, enterprises are hovering between the "price increase of products" and "no increase in price", and the profits of enterprises are also decreasing because of the rising raw materials.

Xiao Zhaoxing, chairman of Hongfa, thinks that although the rosewood industry has not entered the cold winter, it is not far from the cold winter.

In 2012, the price of red sticks and red sandalwood will increase with the decrease of quantity. This is also a difficult problem that enterprises have to face.

In order to reduce the cost factors caused by the rising of raw materials, improve the internal efficiency of enterprises and reduce the cost of management, it may be a coping strategy for Redwood enterprises.

At the same time, brand management will also be one of the direction of Redwood enterprises in 2012.

Home textiles: characteristic development, survival is no problem.

The domestic textile industry in 2011 is still growing, but the ups and downs of raw materials supply and demand aggravate the industry's turmoil and shuffle.

Too many brands in home textile industry, and its structural predicament has become increasingly prominent: fragmentation, homogenization of operations, decentralization of resources and lack of core competencies have seriously hampered the development of home textile industry.

In this regard, some home textile enterprises, while enriching their own products, vigorously implement the new marketing mode, strive to achieve one-stop shopping, and pay attention to the characteristic and nationalization of the design.

Because of the housing market regulation, the development of home textile industry is slowing down temporarily, but its development potential is still huge.

At present, with the speed of China's economic development and the huge consumption groups in China, the home textile market in the future will still have great room for development.

In 2012, home textiles competition will be more intense, price war or upgrade.

The core link of the industrial chain, the segmentation of consumer market and the development of characteristics will become the focus of home textile enterprises this year.

Soft clothing: home decoration trends become living hope

With the improvement of the level of consumer aesthetic demand and the shift from the hard clothing to the soft clothing, the soft clothing industry has accounted for more than 40% of the share of home furnishings in 2011. It has attracted more and more attention from consumers, and the market has shown great potential.

But maturity is not enough, influence is not strong, lack of leading enterprises is short board.

The state has stepped up the regulation and control of real estate, and all localities have also issued relevant policies to curb rising housing prices.

The dismal housing market directly affects the reduction of investment demand, and the market capacity of soft clothing is also reduced.

Coupled with rising prices and other factors, the soft loading market has entered a low season.

But the proportion of hardcover rooms has rapidly increased from 50% to 73% in the first tier cities, and hardcover rooms have become the main battlefield of soft loading.

KB Boloni pioneered the "overall design concept" of soft packaging in China.

The trend of home decoration with "light decoration and heavy decoration" and the two decoration houses not only make the soft fitting industry more room for existence, but also provide an opportunity for the development and growth of the industry.

Hardware: life is victory.

Last year was a very difficult year for the development of the hardware industry. The three problems of "shortage of funds", "shortage of migrant workers" and "electricity shortage" were heavily oppressed by the "three big mountains" in the small and medium-sized hardware enterprises.

The introduction of the housing control policy has reduced the demand for investment housing and the rigid demand for housing, which is even worse for the downstream hardware industry.

Based on the environment, some people say that the Chinese market is not very bad. Hai Fu Le has launched a way to sink the channel, actively layout two or three line cities in China, and some say that the hardware industry has entered the "cold winter" ahead of schedule.

With the increase in the number of commercial real estate and urban complex, it is not a bad thing for the hardware industry.

Hui Tai Long Chen Dong also believes that the long term cooperation mechanism between real estate and hardware enterprises will eventually achieve the triple win of suppliers, consumers and consumers.

"This is the best era and the worst.

This year's survival is victory.

Paint: internal and external, living on the brink of life and death

2011 is the most difficult period in the coatings industry since the 2008 financial crisis.

The overall sales volume of coatings increased, but the growth rate slowed down compared with last year.

Affected by the global debt crisis, the external economic situation is bad, and the coatings industry has become a domestic leading type, resulting in a serious surplus of domestic coatings capacity.

2012 or usher in small and medium-sized paint business "closures".

Under the fierce price war, the domestic coatings enterprises are fighting for "save the market", such as "bamboo charcoal", "net flavor" and "formaldehyde removal".

The market for decorative lacquer and furniture lacquer in 2011 was deeply influenced by the domestic market regulation, and its engineering market was shrinking rapidly in a short time, and the terminal market had little influence.

With the continuous development of affordable housing projects, the long-term development of decorative lacquer and furniture paint is still promising.

At present, some coating enterprises are actively developing from product oriented to market oriented, from speed to overall operation.

In 2012, the paint industry will continue to fight for life and death: small and medium-sized enterprises are seeking survival and big enterprises are seeking development.

Who can continuously improve the management of internal strength, innovate products and optimize channels, who will win the commanding heights in the fierce market competition.

Lighting: policy support LED live smartly

With the continuous introduction of the favorable policies of the LED industry, LED has become a keen project for many listed companies.

Looking forward to 2012, LED will be the hottest investment in the home industry.

The introduction of new technologies, new products and new funds laid a good foundation for the LED industry to blossom and blossom in 2012.

While investing a lot, we should also be vigilant whether it will lead to overproduction.

Although this is too early, there is no need to worry about it.

The traditional lighting industry appeared to be in a bad mood in 2011.

Whether the commercial real estate and urban complex projects can help one can be seen in the 2012.

Appliances: quality problems plaguing small appliances are unpleasant.

The quality problems of small household appliances such as water purifier, rice cooker, electric kettle and so on become the "difficult words" of small household appliances in 2011.

Mergers and acquisitions of large brand and professional small brands are also going on in waves.

When can small appliances be better regulated? Perhaps there were some results in 2012.

In 2011, the major appliance industry devoted energy to product development and technological innovation.

The upgrading of the color TV industry is one of them.

At the end of the year, SIEMENS's "refrigerator door" has cast a shadow over the quality of the big brands.

Home appliance stores, the best buy "shut shop" and "delisting" incident at the beginning of the year ended the attempt of pnational appliance stores in China, and also made many multinational companies who want to directly replicate successful experiences see the differences in the Chinese market.

Perhaps this will help multinational companies better understand China's market in 2012.