Demographic Dividend Gradually Lost, Shoe Industry Pfer Needs To Open Up New Market.

"This year's foreign trade situation is complex and severe. Especially at the beginning of this year, foreign trade enterprises can no longer operate according to the previous mode.

Our company has begun to change. First, we must pform from export to foreign trade, and the two is to pform from relying on resources to relying on core competitiveness.

In the interview with Shanghai Silk Group Co, Dong Jun, a director of the Shanghai Silk Group Co, which is mainly engaged in foreign trade clothing, said.

However,

It is not easy to export to face the dangerous situation and to fight in the domestic market. Has the export of one of the three carriages of China's national economy been pushed into the "chicken ribs" now?

European and American Recovery is uncertain. Foreign trade risks are hard to avoid.

"On the one hand, Wenzhou's overseas dealers' confidence in the European and American markets is declining, and their business enthusiasm is decreasing. Many overseas Chinese businessmen have expressed their willingness to retreat, reflecting bad profits and unreliable results. On the other hand, the payment credit of foreign buyers has declined significantly, and the reported losses of export credit insurance have risen sharply.

Hiker should have a deep understanding of the above phenomena. He said that the European and American markets account for 40% of the total export volume of Wenzhou. Since the fourth quarter of 2011, the negative effects brought by the downturn in the US and European economies to Wenzhou's foreign trade have been felt.

China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce said in an interview with our reporter that as far as they know, the major clothing brands in 2011 have higher inventory levels, and merchants not only reduce their orders, but also further reduce prices.

According to the global resources company's investigation report, due to the low prospects of the European and American economies, especially the impact of the European debt crisis, 2/3's export orders for foreign trade enterprises in China have declined, and only 22% of the companies can maintain stable exports.

According to the statistics provided by the China Textile Import and export chamber to our correspondent, in 2011 1-10, the United States imported 34 billion 740 million dollars of textiles and clothing from China, an increase of 6.5%, an increase of 14.6 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, accounting for 40.2% of the US market share, and 1.3 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

In 2011 1-9, the European Union imported 41 billion 140 million dollars from China's textiles and clothing, a slight increase of 0.55%, accounting for 41.1% of the EU market share, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

"From the fourth quarter of last year, the recovery of the entire European and American economies and the stability of the financial market are not clear now. If the European and American markets do not recover very soon, the situation of foreign trade in 2012 will be quite grim."

Hiker should be worried about the situation that Wenzhou is going to face this year.

The Shanghai Silk Group Co, which is mainly engaged in foreign trade clothing, has made the same forecast for the future situation.

The downturn in the US and European economies is not just a problem of external demand.

"The continuation of the European debt crisis may also exacerbate the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar and the renminbi, and the effective exchange rate of the renminbi will also rise, which will further affect China's exports."

Tian Jianhong, director of the Development Office of Shanxi Taiyuan Economic Development Zone, worries that the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises may be weakened again.

The official forecast is also not optimistic.

Chong Quan, deputy representative of international trade negotiations of the Ministry of Commerce, said that in 2012, there would be no fundamental improvement in the external demand market in Europe and the United States, and the pressure on all kinds of domestic costs will continue.

In the view of Zijin Mountain, Vice Minister of Commerce and deputy representative of international trade negotiations, the problem is much more than that. In 2012, China's foreign trade also had to face competition from emerging economies, increasing foreign trade friction and pressure from rising raw materials and labor costs.

Demographic dividend disappears and new economy wins.

"We have encountered partial pfer of customer orders to countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh."

He Na said that with the rising price of domestic labor and raw materials, China's original cost and price advantage is losing. The era of high cost will normalize, and the trend of pfer of orders to low cost countries is irreversible.

"Previously, Wen merchants had strong bargaining power with foreign merchants at the Canton Fair. Now foreign businessmen will say they want to place an order with ASEAN."

Hiker said that in addition to the obvious sense of bargaining power of Wenzhou enterprises, the profits of enterprises' production and operation are also decreasing.

China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce responsible person interviewed by the newspaper also said that for Southeast Asia, South Asia and other countries competition, the textile industry felt the obvious, especially some big road goods, low-end products orders more and more to Southeast Asia and other neighboring countries.

When it comes to the competitive pressures of emerging economies on China, Zijin Mountain recently announced a less optimistic macro message: since 2011, China's share of these markets in Europe and America is not rising but falling, especially the share of textiles, furniture, shoes, bags and toys.

Low labor cost has always been one of the competitive advantages of China's apparel industry in the international market.

But in recent years, labor costs have risen rapidly. "Labor shortage" has become one of the "three famine" faced by private enterprises as the main force of foreign trade, and the "demographic dividend" of China's labor-intensive industries is gradually disappearing.

According to a survey of labor cost of major clothing producing countries in Asia in 2008 by Jassin ORourke Group.LLC, the cost of labor in China is only lower than that in Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, which are higher than those in ASEAN and other major garment producing countries in South Asia.

At the same time, "the increase in the cost of Chinese enterprises also comes from the pformation of environmental protection, energy saving and emission reduction production and operation costs.

For example, some industries were cluster economies before, but at present many have moved to a relatively remote place, and production and pportation costs have increased.

Hiker said.

Trade protectionism is strengthening again.

Accompanied by fierce competition, there are also increasing trade frictions.

In 2012, China's foreign trade, in addition to facing trade protectionism from the major developed countries, and responding to the new trend of trade protectionism spreading to developing countries, Argentina, Turkey, Indonesia and other countries announced the adoption of restrictive measures to import and export textile and clothing.

"Measures for trade protection in emerging economies are indeed intensification, such as some of the countries organized by Latin America and South America, taking into account the disadvantaged enterprises in their own countries, and inviting Chinese enterprises to remind them not to send these products to the past."

Hiker said it was a frequent event.

Trade protectionism also makes the cost advantage of competitors obvious.

Bangladesh's clothing exports to the United States and Canada can enjoy tax exemption, which is at least 17% less than that in China.

Tian Jianhong said.

How much damage does trade protectionism do to China? The experience of Wenzhou enterprises may explain some problems.

In 2011, when China's textile, footwear and other European and American market share declined overall, the export trend of footwear exports in Wenzhou rose. The reason for this is that Hiker said that this was due to the EU's abolition of anti-dumping measures. Footwear was the largest export product in Wenzhou. The proportion was the first. The EU had imposed anti-dumping measures on China's shoe leather for up to six or seven years. In March this year, the EU's anti-dumping measures against Wenzhou leather shoes were terminated, which greatly increased exports.

The impact of RMB appreciation on traditional export enterprises can not be underestimated.

The international bargaining power of Chinese traditional export enterprises is generally poor. The appreciation of Renminbi directly increases the cost of domestic production factors, while the prices of export products can not be improved simultaneously under the current financial crisis.

Since October 2008, the currencies of many emerging economies have depreciated sharply against the US dollar.

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Industrial pfer, advantages, new market needs just needed

"A strange phenomenon is that during the 2008 financial crisis and the debt crisis of Europe in 2010, the export volume of our low-end products such as shoes and glasses increased."

This is Hiker's observation for many years.

The relevant person in charge of the China Textiles Import and Export Chamber of Commerce expressed the same feeling when interviewed by the newspaper. With the global economic growth declining, the European and American market weak and the demand insufficient, retailers in Europe and the United States, importers, in order to reduce costs and cater to the market demand, they would choose to increase the order quantity in countries with lower labor costs.

Under such a background, under the background of the low economic situation in Europe and the United States and the strength of emerging economies, the biggest impact of China's foreign trade will undoubtedly be low-end consumer products.

But according to Hiker's research, such low-end consumer products can never be pferred to the domestic market.

For export to domestic sales, the relevant leaders of the textile association also gave warnings when interviewed by the newspaper. Many foreign trade enterprises have turned their eyes to the domestic market. However, because the domestic market sales channels and checkout methods are quite different from doing foreign trade business, most enterprises have failed to achieve good results in building their own brands and opening up the domestic market.

"If foreign trade enterprises take part in the domestic government uniform bidding projects, they will not be able to enter the threshold of the domestic uniform bidding market because they do not match the performance of domestic uniform bidding projects even in terms of clothing quality, delivery date and service quality.

Textile Association officials said that in the short term, the export oriented foreign trade enterprises could not hedge the loss of foreign trade by exploiting the domestic market.

Tian Jianhong seems to be willing to "pfer traditional labor intensive industries to industries in less developed areas such as the central and western regions, so that Chinese enterprises can continue to maintain their competitive advantage in labor-intensive products."

According to Hiker, for such low-end consumer goods, China needs to create a rigid demand market.

This is similar to the view of Zijin Mountain, and we need to make great efforts to open up the developing countries' market, especially to the developing countries with large population, low market share, abundant resources and important strategic position.

"From Wenzhou, exports to ASEAN, Russia, Latin America and other countries are significantly higher than the regional average growth rate.

The growth of foreign trade in emerging markets has already made up for losses in the European and American markets. At present, it can basically hedge losses. "

But for Hiker's view, such hedging must be a short period, because the emerging countries' consumption capacity and market capacity are difficult to catch up with the developed countries in a short period of time.

The high-end market is aiming at the top technology, winning the competition.

"After some orders are pferred, due to the delivery time and quality can not be guaranteed, there is also a backflow situation."

He Na told an interview with our reporter that, for the company, the pfer orders are relatively low, and some processing techniques are complex, and the high-end products will still be selected in China.

Improving the quality and added value of export products is also the way for Wenzhou enterprises to break through the situation. For this reason, they have butted up with the creative design experts and enterprises in Italy for technology and brand, and the grade of export products has been improved obviously, so that they can make profits directly against the trend.

According to Hiker, compared with the emerging economies, Chinese traditional export manufacturing enterprises also have the advantages to play. Their relatively mature production and management experience, mature and sound marketing network and docking ability with foreign brands make the production efficiency of enterprises more efficient.

Hanna revealed that China's textile and garment industry is fully capable of breaking through with its own complete industrial chain, production and processing efficiency, ability and level.

The argument of Zijin Mountain has pointed out the direction for enterprises to break through: "the competitiveness of foreign trade is mainly reflected in the competitiveness of commodities and industries.

Chinese goods in the international market lag far behind the developed countries in the brand.

The experience of Taiyuan Economic Development Zone in Shanxi Province, which is a foundry for an internationally famous IT company, is another train of thought.

"The electronic products of the OEM in the development zone have been very popular, and they can not be produced. Next year there will be 16 new production lines."

Tian Jianhong said in an interview with this newspaper.

The export products of the Taiyuan economic development zone are mainly aluminum and magnesium alloy structural parts, high-end Apple mobile phones, and fully mechanized coal mining equipment. It has strong competitiveness in the international market. Although the electronic products of foundries have been exported to Europe and the United States, the sales market has already spread all over the world, and the international market has great demand for such products, so the area has not been affected by the unfavorable factors in the international market.

The strategy of foreign trade is strong, and the risk of foreign exchange is diversified.

Chong Chun has announced that compared with other countries in the world, the contribution rate of foreign trade to China's economy is only about 20%, while Germany is 60% and Japan is 33%.

In 2012, the foreign trade situation is grim. Some experts and agencies have predicted that the contribution rate of China's import and export trade to GDP will be zero to negative in 2012, and the export growth rate may drop from two digits to one place.

As a result, whether foreign trade is still the force of China's economy has attracted a lot of controversy.

The voice of the skeptics is reasonable: at present, China's external reserves are about 60% of GDP, which is much higher than the general international consensus of 20%.

Judging from the proportion of foreign exchange reserves equivalent to foreign investment stocks, Germany is 2.7%, the United States is 1.2%, Japan is 134.5%, and China is 1045%.

Excessive foreign exchange reserves have increased the pressure on foreign exchange assets to maintain value.

However, in the "three carriages" of exports, consumption and investment, the high CPI has been controversial in the way of "4 trillion +10 trillion" to stimulate the growth of GDP so far, while soaring prices are also discouraging consumption.

Foreign trade is not only a problem of GDP, but also a problem of employment and income for thousands of industrial workers.

Only by persisting in developing foreign trade can we drive domestic production demand, maintain and expand employment and increase household income, so as to gradually expand domestic demand and consumption and promote the pformation of China's economy into domestic demand.

As for foreign exchange risk, Liao Xiaoqi, vice president of the Ministry of Commerce and vice president of China WTO Research Association, gave the train of thought: first, accelerating the diversification of foreign exchange assets as the focus of promoting external balance and slowing down external pressure, pushing forward the reform of the foreign exchange system, adjusting the structure of foreign exchange assets, and changing the pattern of foreign exchange assets being concentrated too much on foreign exchange reserves.

Two, we should further relax restrictions on investment from enterprises and individuals, simplify examination and approval procedures, strengthen facilitation services, and promote more foreign exchange into overseas investment rights and interests.

The three is to expand imports and gradually improve the imbalance of foreign trade, which is conducive to easing the pressure on the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves.

The four is to expand outbound tourism.