Textile And Garment Industries Need To Be Alert To Changes In Cotton Prices

Limited time and unlimited state purchase and storage finally ignited the bull market of Zheng cotton. In mid 12 2011, Zhengzhou cotton futures index began to rise steadily through 20500 points, but whether cotton continued to climb to the kinetic energy of the 23000 platform is still doubtful.

Although it is closed until the end of March 2012, the support effect or early termination of the cotton price risk is worth vigilance.

First, the current storage speed has weakened, the daily storage and storage rate has reached a new low since the paction, and the Xinjiang library has been sold.

There are two possibilities. On the one hand, it may indicate that the peak of cotton purchase and storage should be over. On the other hand, it does not exclude the possibility that cotton farmers will start selling their minds when they see the market starting.

Second, the spot market is still weaker than the futures market, and the downstream warming is not obvious.

Zhengzhou futures price has been launched for a long time, but spot prices fluctuate little. Cotton purchase price is less than 19000 yuan / ton near the estimated cost of lint. This price is only about the lowest in 2011.

Although spot prices have picked up slightly recently, trading is not very active.

In December 2011, China's textile and clothing exports increased by US $21 billion 744 million, an increase of 9.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed 9.4% compared with the same period last year.

Among them, textile export growth slowed by 6%, and garment export growth slowed by 11.5%.

Third, there has not been a noticeable improvement in sales, but the cost has been raised again and again.

In January 2012, the PMI sub index showed that the textile industry's new order index was below 40%, but the purchasing price index of raw materials is on the rise.

Storage and storage support is gradually fading with the arrival date of storage and storage, and the height of support is easy to see.

Therefore, optimism for the future market will be untenable if there is no need to pull down downstream demand.

Fourthly, technically, we see that the rising trend of cotton has not changed, and the main indicators are still good.

Since the breakthrough of 20500 yuan, the trend is strong, and there is no need to arrange more than $22000 for the 21000 yuan platform.

But the 22000 platform will probably be under pressure. The current price difference is close to 3000 points, or it will attract more sales to participate in the market, so that the market will be under pressure.

In addition, the US Department of Agriculture recently issued a warning on cotton supply and demand data.

The supply and demand report in February of February 9th showed that the inventory increased by 358 thousand tons at the beginning of the year, mainly because the India Cotton Advisory Committee increased the output of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 in India, and the global output increased by 110 thousand tons, mainly due to the increase in the new cotton market in Pakistan.

The US Department of agriculture also cut consumption by 62 thousand tons.

The final inventory was adjusted to 13 million 232 thousand tons, up by 527 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was much higher than that in the previous two years, reaching 55%.

In the first central document issued in early February, in 2012, it was clear that the reserve system of grain, cotton, oil, sugar and other agricultural products should be clearly established, which would be beneficial to domestic agricultural products.

Although there is still a period from the end of March 31st, we also need policy support to prepare for the gradual recession.

Although cotton is still on the way up, it may need to be more cautious on the 22000 yuan platform.