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Focus On Structural Changes In Cotton Consumption

2012/3/14 16:42:00 4

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Zheng cotton

In the near future, the pattern of weak oscillation continues.

On the one hand, a large number of imported cotton arrive in Hong Kong, and domestic cotton imports continue to be heavily imported. On the other hand, the export of domestic textile and garment has been cut down. Even considering seasonal factors, the export volume is still down sharply compared with the same period last year.

No matter how the cotton policy is changed, the price change of cotton market still depends on consumption.

Inventory structure of textile enterprises

From the recent survey of downstream textile enterprises, after more than 9 months' de stocking and a large number of low price imported cotton, the cost of raw materials for textile enterprises is generally not high at present, and much lower than the average price of the domestic spot market.

Although textile enterprises have fewer orders, the proportion of capital preservation and profitability has increased.

In addition, due to the relatively abundant supply of cotton in the market this year, the textile and cotton stocks are also kept at a low level. Most of the enterprises adopt the strategy of "buying and selling with use". The average stock is about 40 days.

Worried about the decline in cotton prices, Cotton Traders choose to store or produce warehouse slipped cotton, and cotton stocks in the circulation link remain at a low level.

As the sale of grey cloth is not ideal, some enterprises occupy larger funds for finished products inventory, but from the cotton spinning industry chain, from the cotton to the fabric links, the overall raw material cost has dropped significantly, and the inventory of high priced cotton production has basically been digested.

Imported cotton resources structure

From the imported cotton structure,

India cotton

About 1 million 100 thousand tons, about 500 thousand tons of cotton in the United States, and about 600 thousand tons in Australia cotton and Brazil cotton. About 200 thousand tons of cotton imported from Burkina Faso from Uzbek and West Africa from Central Asia, and the rest of the import sources are relatively scattered, and the import scale is relatively small.

From the point of view of imported cotton prices, a large number of low price cotton resources in the early stage are derived from low price India cotton, and the quality of India cotton is 2000 yuan / ton lower than that of Xinjiang cotton, and the competitive advantage is obvious.

However, the quantity of cotton exported in the late period of India is extremely limited. At present, the domestic cotton prices in India have also increased significantly. From 3 to May, the imported cotton resources mainly came from the United States cotton, and they did not take advantage of quality and price.

6 - August, cotton from Australia and Brazil will arrive in the southern hemisphere. According to the current quotation of cotton, the quota price will be about 2500 yuan / ton. The price of Australian cotton is basically the same as that of the domestic medium and high grade cotton, and the price is not an advantage.

According to the structure of imported cotton resources, the average quality of imported cotton resources in China from 3 to August is not high, and the price level will increase significantly over the previous year.

We can pay attention to the opportunity of arbitrage.

Terminal market consumption structure

From the perspective of consumer market structure, low production profit and export order flow

Lost Southeast Asia

The proportion of domestic sales of textile and clothing products will be improved.

The domestic market is greatly influenced by national tax and domestic sales incentives, and the national policy is expected to be favorable for the domestic market.

From the export market, China's export to the United States is about 14%, and its export to Europe is about 20%.

At present, the volume of exports to the US has basically remained stable, and the export unit price is lower than that of other countries. The market share of cotton products is stable at around 35%, but exports to Europe are under pressure.

In addition, China's proportion to South America and Africa has increased, and export growth has also declined.

Textile export orders fragmented characteristics are obvious, the cycle is short, the production volume is small.

In the first quarter of 2012, the growth rate of textile and garment exports will decline significantly due to the double decline in the number and the average unit price.

But after the two quarter, the export price of textiles will fall sharply, which will stimulate the recovery of export volume, and the order will also be better than the first quarter.

On the whole, the supply of domestic cotton in March is adequate, and the pressure on cotton production is relatively large.

But in the next three or four months, the supply structure of cotton has changed greatly. The cost of imported cotton has increased, and the linkage between internal and external markets has been strengthened.

The state can control more resources and the domestic textile orders are insufficient, which is an important factor restricting the rise of cotton prices. It can carry out interval operations according to the change of cotton policy, and should not overlook the price of cotton futures.