Three Line Market Rigid Consumption, Textile Processing Continues To Bottom

A quarterly Preview: brand clothing continues to boom, manufacturing performance continues to bottom. The growth of brand clothing is generally steady, with the expansion of the power and space of the company to expand the ironing industry, and the performance growth is expected to exceed 50%, such as Pathfinder, search at special, card NDI Road, and so on. The company has a strong growth in scale advantage, and the growth rate is expected to be about 30%, such as nine shepherd king and seven wolves.

　　 textile company The expected low growth rate is expected to increase by 25%-30%. The performance growth of some cotton spinning companies is expected to be negative.

Brand Costumes: the improvement of consumption can be expected, and the advantages of the three line market are highlighted. Apparel retail sales showed negative growth in February. Clothing sales are expected to improve in March, with retail sales growth slowed to about 15% in the first quarter, and is expected to return to 20% throughout the year. Terminal research shows that sales pressure was higher in February, and inventories increased, but dealers were not pessimistic about the whole year. It is expected that the clothing company's 2012 autumn and winter orders will provide more powerful policy support. Combined with extension expansion, the expected order amount will increase by 20%. The three line market is growing faster than the second tier market because of more rigid consumption. Meanwhile, the apparel industry is growing faster than bedding.

　 Processing and manufacturing In the short term, the demand for replenishment is in short supply. The negative growth rate of exports expanded in February, but textile exports slightly improved. Business investment has maintained a relatively rapid growth, and textile production has increased significantly, and demand for downstream replenishment has increased. Terminal research and understanding, the leading enterprise orders gradually improved, and the industry concentration further improved, but the operation of the industry is still under pressure, it is estimated that the annual export growth of about 10%, lower than 2011. First quarter results will continue to bottom out.

Risk warning. 1., if the economic downturn exceeds expectations in 2012, the sales pressure of textile clothing terminal will increase; 2., the continuous credit crunch may lead to the increase of the financing cost of brand clothing dealers, thereby affecting the speed of expansion of the companies' channels; and 3. RMB exchange rate fluctuations will increase the pressure of processing and manufacturing operations.

Valuation, Rating and investment strategy 。 In the first quarter, besides the pressure of sales in February, retail sales in 1 and March continued to grow steadily. Judging that as the weather gradually weakened, the price range gradually dropped, clothing sales volume will be improved. It is mainly recommended that the extended expansion power and the most promising "three growth heroes" Pathfinder, search special, card NDI Road, as well as the long and the good news birds in mid and long term maintain the recommended growth rate and determine the high safety margin of the nine herdmen and seven wolves. Manufacturing enterprises expect a quarterly performance will not be optimistic, only recommend stable growth performance, a quarterly expected beautiful Jiangnan high fiber.