Textile Economic Analysis Of Filament Weaving Industry In The First Quarter Of 2012

Affected by the instability of the global economic situation, the shortage of domestic consumption demand and the slow growth of the industrial economy, the first quarter of 2012 in China

The downward pressure on economic operation has increased significantly, the sales of the market have been sluggish, the sales revenue of the enterprises has been growing sluggish, the export has declined, and the finished goods inventory has risen sharply.

The specific analysis is as follows:

Downward pressure on industry economy

There is a negative growth in major clusters of real estate.

 

Table 12012 annual output volume of main filament weaving industry cluster in the first quarter of the year

Table 1 is the production of the main industrial clusters in China in the first quarter of 2012, which accounts for 70% of the total output of China's silk fabrics. From table 1, it can be seen that the total output of three silk fabrics in Shengze, Changxin and Xiuzhou is 3 billion 726 million meters, which is 7.03% lower than that in the same period last year. Apart from the 13.87% growth rate in Shengze, Changxin and Xiuzhou all have negative growth.

Product sales sluggish, inventories increased significantly

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter of 2012, the number of Enterprises above Designated Size in China's chemical fiber weaving processing industry was 1168, and the total industrial output value reached 24 billion 765 million yuan, up 10.68% over the same period last year. The total sales value of industrial products reached 23 billion 712 million yuan, an increase of 8.76% over the same period last year, and the sales and sales rate was 95.75%, down 1.69 percentage points compared with that of the previous year, and the domestic sales ratio was over 88%.

Due to insufficient market demand, sales of products were sluggish, production and marketing rates were low, and finished goods inventories increased significantly, up 28.55% from the same period last year. This increase was 2.8 percentage points higher than in February.

The pressure of cost and cost is increasing, and the profit space is hard to rise.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter of 2012, the main business income of Enterprises above Designated Size in China's chemical fiber weaving processing industry totaled 23 billion 316 million yuan, an increase of 6.63% over the same period last year, and the total profit amounted to 865 million yuan, an increase of 7.28% over the same period last year. The profit margin was 3.71%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points over the same period last year.

The deficit of the industry was 17.12%, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 88.68% compared with the same period last year, and the profit of profitable enterprises increased by 14.07% over the same period last year.

Specifically, with the low growth of the main business income, the main business cost increased by 5.37% compared with the same period last year. The main business tax and the added value increased by 15.03% compared with the same period last year. The total amount of the three fees increased by 21.22% compared with the same period last year, of which the management expenses increased by 18.37% compared with the same period last year, and the financial expenses increased by 27.29% compared to the same period last year.

It can be seen that the growth rate of cost is obviously higher than that of main business income, which further squeezes profit space.

Economic performance decline

Compared with cotton, wool, linen and silk, our country

The level of efficiency is low.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter of 2012, the cost profit margin of Enterprises above Designated Size in China's chemical fiber weaving processing industry was 3.88%, while the average level of textile industry was 4.55%, the asset liability ratio was 67.8%, while the average level of textile industry was 57.67%.

Higher debt pressure has increased interest payments by 50.74% compared with the same period last year, and the debt risk of enterprises has increased.

At the same time, the turnover of liquid assets was only 1.74 times, down 0.21 times compared with the same period last year, which indicates that the utilization of funds is tight. This is mainly due to the fact that the growth rate of current assets is too fast relative to the main business income, and accounts receivable increased by 33.09% over the same period last year, which indicates that the difficulty of recovery funds is increasing and the finished goods inventories have increased by 28.55% compared with the same period last year, indicating that the market sales are insufficient.

The proportion of current assets to total assets has reached 60.82%.

{page_break}

Export market

Growth rate decline, contribution rate down

Export contribution rate dropped to 30%

 

Table 22012 exports of major textile fabrics in the first quarter of the year

As can be seen from table 2, in the first quarter of 2012, the total export volume of China's chemical fiber filament fabrics was 1 billion 890 million meters, up 3.45% over the same period last year, and the growth rate decreased significantly.

In the first quarter of 2012, cotton fabric products were affected by the price of raw materials, and export prices dropped by more than 10% over the same period last year. The number of exports began to pick up and gradually get rid of negative growth. At the same time, the export of chemical fiber fabrics began to pick up, and export volume increased by 7.3% over the same period last year. This contributed to the export contribution rate of silk fabrics from 98.49% at the end of last year to 31.68%, ending the flourishing export trend of 2011.

It is worth mentioning that, in the first quarter of 2012, the export prices of textile fabrics fell completely. Only the growth rate of filament fabrics maintained 10.64%, which made the total export volume of silk fabrics up to US $1 billion 970 million, an increase of 14.48% over the same period last year.

Export growth declines

 

Figure 1:2011 price chart of polyester filament from July to April 2012

According to the monthly data of Figure 1, since the second half of 2011, although the export volume of cotton fabrics has been in a negative growth trend, the actual export volume is slowly recovering. After the Spring Festival, the total recovery has begun, and by the end of March, it has been completely rid of the negative growth situation.

At the same time, the growth rate of silk fabric exports is relatively stable, but the actual monthly export volume is gradually declining. In 2012 1~2 months, it was difficult to maintain a year-on-year level, and there was a negative growth, though March.

Picked up, but only tied with cotton fabric exports.

 

Table 32012 export situation of main filament trade areas in China in the first quarter of {page_break}

Recovery in the US market

In the first quarter of 2012, the volume growth of China's filament fabrics exports to the main exporting countries declined to varying degrees, and negative growth occurred in Brazil, Russia, Bangladesh and Mexico.

But the US market has expanded its imports in the context of its stable economic recovery.

As can be seen from table 3, in the first quarter of 2012, the export volume of China's filament fabrics to the United States increased by 27.7% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by 37.56% over the same period last year.

According to the US Department of commerce website data, in the first quarter of 2012, the total number of imported silk fabrics from the United States increased by 20.17% over the same period last year. The total number of silk fabrics imported from China increased by 21.25% over the same period last year, and China accounted for 21.25% of the US market share, 6 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

Nylon filament fabric exports increased by nearly 40%

In the first quarter of 2012, China's polyester filament fabrics exported 1 billion 628 million meters, an increase of 1.09% over the same period, and the total output of nylon fabrics increased 50 million 290 thousand meters, an increase of 39.7% compared with the same period last year. The total length of silk cotton interwoven fabrics was 21 million 640 thousand meters, up 25.97% over the same period last year.

Affected by the price of raw materials, the export price of nylon filament fabrics increased by 34.02% over the same period last year.

Imports of nylon filament fabrics increased by more than 35%

In the first quarter of 2012, China's filament fabric imports totaled 277 million meters, down 1.3% compared to the same period last year.

The import volume of nylon filament fabrics increased by 35.67% compared with the same period last year, and the import of polyester filament fabrics decreased by 14.05% compared with the same period last year.

Domestic market

Market boom and price decline

 

Figure 2:2011 July, April 2012, chemical fiber filament fabric prosperity and price index chart

As can be seen from Fig. 2, the domestic market price of filament fabrics has declined all the way since the second half of 2011.

At the beginning of 2012, the market forecast has always maintained a certain confidence. However, due to the serious shortage of downstream demand, the backlog of enterprises and the difficulties of shipping, the silk products that have been selling well have been gradually turned off in April. A new round of cold resistant clothing fabrics have not yet started, and the market is still not showing signs of warming, and at the same time, there is also a lack of popular products, and the market is expected to begin to slide.

Raw material Market

Prices are basically stable.

 

Figure 3:2011 price chart of polyester filament from July to April 2012

As can be seen from Figure 3, cotton prices in August 2011 fell below 20000 yuan / ton, has maintained 19000 yuan / ton price operation, the relatively stable price of cotton has made the best-selling polyester filament subject to price pressures, coupled with the lack of market demand for chemical fiber filament fabrics, polyester filament price has dropped significantly from September, and by November, polyester POY150D fell 12000 yuan / ton after the steady down for 3 months, March this year, polyester filament prices again declined slightly.

Existing problems

Market demand is seriously insufficient.

At present, China's industrial economy is in a downward trend, and domestic demand is hard to be effectively released. Despite the steady recovery of the US economy, the euro area's economic growth is weak.

The growth of textile production capacity in Southeast Asian countries has led to the diversion of international orders.

In addition, the weaving capacity of domestic investment in the past two years has been completely released, and competition among enterprises has become more intense.

The market is short of best sellers.

The best-selling products, such as imitation silk, began to experience a decline in market demand after the popular sales in the past two years. In search of less popular varieties, enterprises began to turn to the production of regular road products in order to maintain their operation. This undoubtedly caused the backlog of enterprises and the market saturation, exacerbating the deterioration of the operating conditions.

Difficulties in capital turnover

Because of the low market and the backlog of enterprise inventory, it is difficult for the products that have been shipped out to recover the loan, plus the higher interest expense.

Cost pressures increase

Raw material prices continued to fall, making the cost of raw materials more pressure. After the Spring Festival, the wages of the workers in the filament weaving industry generally increased by 10~15%, which increased the labor cost of enterprises. In addition, financing difficulties and financing increased the financial cost of enterprises.

At present, most enterprises are in the predicament of high cost growth and low income and profit growth.

To sum up, China's silk weaving industry is experiencing unprecedented difficulties.

However, it should be noted that the current international and domestic economic environment is unlikely to change dramatically in the short term, and the fact that the price gap between domestic cotton prices and international cotton prices is too high can hardly be improved in the short term.

Therefore, there is still much room for development of filament fabrics in fabric innovation. In particular, super Imitation cotton products are worthy of further research and development.