Raw Material Market Is Sluggish, Viscose Staple Fiber Is Hard To Overcome.

The market price has risen from 16400 yuan to ~16800 yuan / tonne in early 5.

Since May 11th, domestic and foreign cotton futures prices have plummeted, and domestic and foreign bulk product prices have continued to decline. Subsequently, the middle and low end products of viscose staple have been loosened, and the price of high-end staple products has remained strong at a weekly rate of 100 yuan / ton ~200 yuan / ton.

Downstream cotton mills are close to the procurement cycle, but continue to wait and see as expected.

Can the rigid demand of centralized compensation be suppressed by the public?

From the cost point of view, the price of imported pulp from the viscose factory at the beginning of 3~4 month is near $1050 / ton, and the cotton pulp is 8600 yuan / ton ~8700 yuan / ton, and the domestic dissolving pulp reaches the factory price of 8300 yuan ~8500 yuan / ton.

On the basis of the recent increase of excipients, most of the raw material inventory of viscose manufacturers is 1 months, that is to say, the actual cost of viscose manufacturers from the end of May to June is 16000 yuan ~16500 yuan / ton.

At present, the viscose factories in China are mostly in a state of micro deficit. Some of the raw materials are stocked up later, with the price of viscose decreasing, the deficit is increasing.

Cotton pulp factory early inventory is basically empty, many suppliers in the two quarter of the supply of goods was released in advance.

Late price is limited.

The latter is likely to be the traders of domestic dissolving pulp and imported dissolving pulp.

Judging from the situation of viscose staple fiber, the actual demand is suppressed due to the shrinkage and wait-and-see state of the whole procurement.

Domestic viscose manufacturers are still in the controllable range, and faced with no purchasing intention after half a month of wait-and-see, the inventory pressure of later viscose manufacturers increased.

After 8 years, the domestic viscose manufacturers have maintained the industry start-up rate of more than 10 percent.

In particular, some mid - end manufacturers with relatively high inventory pressure are likely to adjust the load later in the new factories, with new capacity, quality and price impact.

Judging from the macro environment, the current macroeconomic environment is not good enough. The European debt crisis has not yet been solved. The global economy is in danger of falling into the two recession. The harsh environment is comparable to the 2008 financial crisis.

The total export volume of textile and apparel trade decreased by 4.8% and 2.3% respectively.

The price of bulk products should drop, and the raw materials of chemical fiber will also decline. The overall situation of the whole environment is weak, and the market will add more haze.

and

The price of domestic and foreign futures has fallen sharply since the news of the issuance of import quotas increased by 1 million 100 thousand tons.

The huge price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has caused domestic cotton prices to be suppressed.

And viscose staple fiber has not been spared.

Overall, the staple of the viscose staple fiber is dominant. It is expected that the industry inventory will reach a high level in mid and late 6, and the market price will be re searched for the lowest position at 15000 yuan ~15500 yuan / ton.

But there is no need for the industry to panic too much. In the medium to long term, the annual storage price of cotton is still the key to price support in the second half of the year, and the price of viscose will deviate from the central price of 20400 yuan / ton.