June 2012 21 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20308 yuan / ton; 229 level 19423 yuan / ton; 328 level 18478 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17580 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9740 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15070 yuan / ton; C32S price 25670 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: Domestic

Spot prices were not driven up by the recent strong trend of Zheng cotton.

The main reason is that there is no obvious improvement in the downstream textile enterprises, and some of the textile enterprises continue to decline. However, the market panic has been alleviated. Traders' mentality is relatively stable. Under the support of the national "steady growth" and the policy of purchasing and storing the next year, some textile enterprises began to plan to buy cotton at a low price.

3. cotton imports: on the 20 day, the price of China's main port of imported cotton continued to rise, and all varieties rose by more than 2.5 cents.

Judging from the market situation, the long term strength is getting bigger and bigger. On the one hand, China's demand for foreign cotton is relatively strong, and the export order of US cotton has increased unexpectedly. Meanwhile, the sales of consignment cotton have rebounded markedly. On the other hand, the bad weather in China may lead to the reduction of cotton production, which makes foreign businessmen more optimistic about the future market.

4.ICE cotton: in June 20th, the US Federal Reserve lowered the US economic growth expectation in the next three years. Apart from expanding the scale of distortion, no further economic stimulus measures were introduced, which disappointed the market.

ICE futures were also adversely affected by the lowest intraday drop to the 10 day moving average, and finally sped up most of the previous day's gains.

Summary:

The US Federal Reserve cut down the US economic growth expectation in the next three years. Apart from expanding the scale of distorting operation, no further economic stimulus measures were introduced, which disappointed the market.

US cotton December contract fell sharply after the 40 day moving average.

Domestic, the panic in the spot market has been partially alleviated, and domestic stock has also stopped.

Technically, Zheng cotton has been standing on the 20 day moving average, suggesting that investors should rely on the 20 day moving average to do more operations. But in view of the weakness of the fundamentals, Zheng cotton is unlikely to show a continuous upward trend. The rise of the Yin line is mostly a test for the short term. In the rebound process, Zheng cotton's January contract is under pressure at the 19600 and 40 day moving average.

[German futures] US cotton rebounded blocked Zheng cotton seeking power

On Wednesday, CF1301 opened up and left. CF1301 closed more than 23.6 hands, and its position decreased slightly.

CF1301 closed at 19450 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, reduced 846 hand; in June 20th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 87.4 cents / pound, up 2.47 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14099 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14606 yuan / ton.

According to New York's June 20th news, cotton futures fell sharply on Wednesday, and investors were forced to settle their positions. Brokers said the July contract's short operation seemed to have come to an end, and the market was down from the previous month's high point.

The ICE12 cotton contract fell 1.72 cents or 2.3%, at 72.71 cents a pound.

In June 20th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 17120 tons, an increase of 2740 tons compared with the previous day, with a reduction of 60 tons in orders and an aggregate purchase of 150580 tons.

At home, due to the continuous rebound of electronic disk, the mainstream market of the spot market began to stabilize, and the textile factories before watching began to take action, but the actual turnover was still light.

On the 20 day, the 328 index was unchanged from the previous day, at 18325, and the price difference between home and abroad reached 3400, showing a further convergence.

On Wednesday, Zheng cotton went up and down, and the rebound power was still insufficient. It only got support at the top of the gap, but in the evening, the US cotton fell sharply. The Fed's Conference on interest rates only introduced the extension of the reverse operation plan. There was no qe3 hint that the road to economic recovery in the future is still bumpy. The purchase of foreign cotton into the stock and interest rate has also been exhausted. If the rally is made, the market needs new impetus, and it can be held for 19700 days, with a target rate of 19300.

Today's operation suggests that light duty operation, interval operation, CF1301 reference price interval is 19300-19500.

[GF futures] Zheng cotton rebound is still weak.

[market performance]

The US Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton was depressed by the clearing position of investors. The short term operation of the July contract seemed to have come to an end, and the market was down from the previous month's high point.

Yesterday, after the high rise of Zheng cotton, the concussion descended to the vicinity of the 30 day moving average, and then maintained low consolidation throughout the day.

[spot market]

The national cotton index has not changed much.

Two grade cotton 19500 yuan, three grade lint 18600 Yuan nearby.

[operation suggestion]

The day before yesterday, the uplink of the United States cotton did not boost Zheng cotton and Zheng cotton cotton remained weak.

Indeed, the rebound has been resisted in the vicinity of 19000, and the new storage is still in excess of two months. At this stage, it is hard to sustain a rebound.