Domestic Cotton Spot Market Overall Stable ICE Cotton Oscillation Rebound

June 25, 2012 ~6 29, domestic spot prices remained stable, Zheng Mian

Price weakness consolidation, ICE cotton futures prices rebound, domestic cotton yarn prices continue to decline.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, as of June 29th, the national cotton picking and sale were basically completed; the cotton processing enterprises' new cotton processing rate (accounted for the proportion of sales) was 99.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with that of the previous year, and the sales rate of new cotton (accounting for the processed proportion, including the cross reserves) was 90.8%, up 11.6 percentage points from the same period last year.

Among them, the processing rate of Xinjiang's new cotton was 99.3%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the same period, and the sales rate was 94.1%, up 6 percentage points from the same period last year.

The domestic cotton spot market was stable overall, and the overall turnover remained unchanged.

In June 29th, the national cotton price B index, representing the average selling price of the standard grade cotton in the mainland, was 18443 yuan / ton, down 37 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.2%, down 5467 yuan / ton, or 22.9%; the average price of Xinjiang standard lint sale was 18751 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, down 6201 yuan / ton, or 24.9%.

Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price in September 2012 was 18435 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.3%, down 5145 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 21.8%, while the average price of the electronic contract in the national cotton trading market was 18413 yuan / ton in September 2012, compared with last week, it fell 17 yuan / ton, or 0.1%, down by 4340 yuan / ton, or 19.1%.

The EU summit reached a breakthrough agreement to resolve the debt crisis. The US dollar index fell. On Friday, the general rally of commodities led to the rise of ICE cotton futures. However, the USDA weekly export report showed that in June 14th ~21 China cancelled 140 thousand tons of US cotton contract orders this year, and the cotton stocks in China's Port Free Trade Zone increased rapidly, and the spot market operation pressure was greater.

In June 29th, the ICE cotton futures contract settlement price in October 2012 was 71.57 cents / pound, up 2.3 cents / pound, or 3.3%, compared with last week.

The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated at 1% tariff. The cost of import of RMB is 13545 yuan / ton, down 436 yuan / ton, or 3.1% yuan, lower than the domestic market 4898 yuan / ton, the price difference increased 399 yuan / ton compared with last week. According to the sliding tax, the cost of import is 14547 yuan / ton, down 334 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 2.2% yuan, lower than the 3896 yuan / ton in the domestic market, and the price difference increased by 297 yuan / ton last week.

domestic

Continued downturn, cotton yarn prices continue to decline.

In June 29th, 32 cotton combed yarn prices were quoted at 25410 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton, or 0.6%, down 5540 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 17.9%, and polyester staple price 9290 yuan / ton, down 390 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 4%, down by 3310 yuan / ton compared with last week.

After analyzing the market, the area of US cotton decreased greatly and the international cotton price pressure oscillating forward.

This week, the outcome of the EU summit exceeded expectations and stimulated the market. But because the eurozone is politically ununified, the implementation of the solution remains uncertain.

In contrast to the recent market trend after the EU summit, investors were disappointed by the lack of practical action of the conference, and the euro has started another downward trend against the US dollar after a short-term rebound.

Therefore, how long this EU summit can stimulate the market is doubtful.

Although the US cotton sown area of 14% fell far beyond market expectations.

However, the weekly crop growth report released by USDA shows that this year's growth of US cotton is preferred over the same period last year. If the late weather is favorable, the increase in unit yield may partly compensate for the loss of output caused by the decline in the area.

To sum up, external macro factors may boost market confidence, but the fundamental pattern of global inventories and high consumption and shrinking consumption can hardly be changed. Next week, the market volatility may be bigger, and the rebound should be treated with caution.

Domestic and foreign demand is still weak, and domestic cotton prices continue to be weak.

This week, the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing announced that in June, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, the lowest in nearly 7 months.

Among them, the new order index was 49.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, an export order index of 47.5%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points, a decrease of 50% percentage points, a 52.3% index of finished goods inventory, a 0.1 percentage point increase in the annulus, and a new high of nearly 7 months.

The above data indicate that domestic and foreign demand is still weak, and the pressure on enterprises to increase inventory pressure is still increasing, and the profit situation is not optimistic.

On the basic level, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is still a major factor that restricts the sale of national cotton.

At the same time, according to the state

The market monitoring system textile monitoring station reflects that since June, the market of gauze has been continuously depressed, the number of new orders is less than that of May, the capital turnover of enterprises is more difficult, and the pressure of operation is increasing.

To sum up, the domestic cotton prices are expected to continue to be vulnerable to shocks in the near future.