July 6, 2012 Institutional Look - - - - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20253 yuan / ton; 229 level 19382 yuan / ton; 328 level 18449 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17545 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9760 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14970 yuan / ton; C32S price 25400 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: today's spot market paction prices basically stabilized, but because of the poor sales of downstream products in textile mills, capital pressure is serious, turnover is not good, but in order to maintain production, enterprises are still buying and buying.

3. import cotton: in July 5th, due to ICE futures closed, the quotation of China's main port of import cotton remained unchanged.

Although the recent weather and macro-economy in the cotton producing countries has been keeping the market warm, it is an indisputable fact that global inventories continue to rise in the coming year.

At the same time, large quantities of foreign cotton stocks stranded in Hong Kong are difficult to digest, and the situation that China's reduced cotton consumption will be replaced by imported cotton yarns will continue, which will continue to bring downward pressure on cotton prices.

4. the central bank has cut interest rates: since July 6, 2012, it has lowered the benchmark interest rate for Renminbi deposits and loans of financial institutions.

The one-year deposit benchmark interest rate of financial institutions has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, the one-year lending benchmark interest rate has been reduced by 0.31 percentage points, the other benchmark rates of deposit and loan and the individual housing provident fund deposit and loan interest rates have been adjusted accordingly.

5.ICE cotton: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

Futures closed down on Thursday, and the first time in five trading days was seen as a result of the rise in the US dollar and the reversal of commodity market pressure in the cotton market and investors clearing positions, which is expected to keep the cotton market on the defensive.

Summary:

At present, the price of zhengmian has shifted slightly, and the fundamentals have been slightly reduced.

In line with the recent macro interest in reducing interest rates, Zheng cotton is expected to hold the 40 day moving average.

On the operation, we may use the idea of interval oscillations and more operations, and take the 20 and 40 day moving average as the reference. The above concerns about the pressure of the 19650 early small highs.

[one German futures] bad macroeconomic environment Zheng cotton shock consolidation

CF1301 opened low on Thursday, and CF1301 closed more than 22.5 hands at a close.

CF1301 closed at 19540 yuan / ton, up 85 yuan / ton, reduced 2296 hand; in July 5th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 85.15 cents / pound, up 0 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13699 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14607 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 5th news, cotton futures for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) were lower on Thursday. Analysts said that because of the rise in the US dollar and the reversal of the underlying commodity market pressure on the cotton market, investors settled their positions. This is the first of five trading days, which is expected to keep the cotton market on the defensive.

ICE cotton contracts in December fell 2.02 cents, or 2.8%, and the settlement price was 70.58 cents per pound.

In July 5th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 14580 tons, a decrease of 1020 tons compared with the previous day, an increase of 1120 tons in orders and an aggregate purchase of 134520 tons.

5 days to match the market MA most of the contracts opened high, early plate narrow shocks, afternoon group rose higher, the end of the whole line rose.

From the information of the two cotton textile industry venues that day, we can see that the downstream textile enterprises are not very good at that time. Due to the sluggish sales, limiting production and increasing production, the cotton price rise is still weak.

On Thursday, Zheng cotton went on a low rise. In the evening, the central bank and the European Central Bank cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. But just to the 2 quarter of the economic data node, the economic data were too bad for investors to be blindly optimistic. Zheng cotton will temporarily oscillate in the 19200-19700 interval.

Today's operation suggests that light duty operation, interval operation, CF1301 reference price interval is 19300-19700.

Overnight, the ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% and lowered overnight interest rates to zero.

Affected by this news, the US dollar index rose sharply, and most commodity futures, including cotton, fell.

Prior to the general rise in international commodity futures prices, ICE cotton futures showed the worst performance.

At present, the decline of cotton prices is the top of the decline in other commodity futures prices.

News, the development and Reform Commission: textile industry's immediate urgency will be alleviated through structural tax cuts, raw material price stabilization and other policies.

International market, 5 days, due to ICE futures closed, the main port of China's imports of cotton quotes unchanged.

Despite the recent warming and weather in the cotton producing countries, the fact that global inventories continue to rise in the coming year is indeed an indisputable fact.

At the same time, large quantities of foreign cotton stocks stranded in Hong Kong are difficult to digest, and China's reduced cotton consumption will continue to be replaced by imported cotton yarn, which will continue to bring pressure on cotton prices.

Domestic market, 5, domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly.

On the surface, cotton fundamentals are gradually getting warmer, but the supply and demand of cotton market tends to be loose this year, and domestic cotton supply is very sufficient, and the total supply is over ten million tons, which is the fundamental reason for the uplink of cotton prices.

Whether cotton prices are really strong depends on whether the downstream consumption can continue to turn warmer.

Spot quotation, July 5th, the US C/A cotton quotation is 91.40 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15334 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 94.15, the general trade port delivery price is 15775 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton price is 92.70, the general trade port delivery price is 15550 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation is 84.60, the general trade port delivery price 14262 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19382 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan; the B index was 18449 yuan, up 3 yuan.

Market analysis, cotton due to poor overall consumption capacity, the offensive is limited, and later influenced by the surrounding atmosphere, the passive component is relatively large.

Overnight commodities are under pressure from the dollar.

The bottom area has not yet been released.

From the industry perspective, firm market pressure is the key factor that restricts the price.

On the operation, Zheng cotton is more cautious about holding the 19000-19200 interval support.