August 3, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

There is no change in the pattern of Zheng cotton's low level range concussion.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20294 yuan / ton; 229 level 19436 yuan / ton; 328 level 18524 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17617 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: under the condition of weak consumption, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises is high, and the number of domestic textile enterprises is further increased.

3. imported cotton: in August 2nd, the price of imported cotton in China's main port generally declined, most varieties fell 0.75 cents, and West Africa cotton declined less than 0.25 cents.

For external cotton, supply pressure is difficult to alleviate, and insufficient import cotton quota is always an important reason for the indigestible cotton inventory.

4. US cotton exports: in August 2, 2012, the US Department of Agriculture announced the US cotton export report on July 2012 20-26.

In the week of 2011/12, the net volume of US cotton exports was 9 thousand tons, and the main buyers were China (2 thousand and 500 tons), Mexico, Thailand and South Korea.

In 2012/13, the net volume of US cotton exports was 38 thousand and 400 tons. The main buyers were Turkey, Mexico, Morocco and China (3 thousand and 800 tons).

5.ICE cotton: in August 2nd, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, stimulating the dollar to expand against the euro, and the commodity market was under pressure.

However, ICE cotton futures were not interfered by the peripheral market, and slightly increased under a small speculative buying.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy, and there is no substantial change in demand.

The policy of collecting and selling reserves and quota policy has become an important variable affecting the cotton price trend in the near future.

Recent rumors about dumping and quotas have triggered market sentiment.

Although the purpose of the state is not to suppress the market, dumping at low prices or increasing quotas will objectively play a role in suppressing the price of the cotton social circulation market.

But from the disk and cotton processing enterprises are expected to see, Zheng cotton below the space is limited, but the lack of momentum, Zheng cotton low range shock pattern has not changed, the strategy of short line operation, the central line investors can pay close attention to the opportunity to buy more single.

[Wanda futures] relatively good export, cotton cotton rose slightly

Although the market was disappointed by the failure of the ECB President Delagi to take immediate monetary policy action, investors turned their attention to the US employment figures on Friday. Meanwhile, Thursday's weekly export showed that the US cotton signed a total of 47 thousand and 400 tons in the week ending July 26th, a record high of nearly six weeks and a shipment of 68 thousand and 400 tons to complete the USDA prediction task.

Therefore, overnight ICE cotton rose slightly under the support of speculative buying, and the December contract closed up 0.41 cents to 70.97 cents / pound.

But there is no sign of improvement in fundamentals and macro level. Cotton prices are hard to get rid of the weak pattern and continue to focus on the 69-75 cents / pound crosses area.

Technically, ICE phase cotton Xiao Yang received, but the December contract still failed to break through the short-term average line suppression. The short-term average bonding has formed a downward trend in the gap. The adhesion between KD and MACD index has formed a short alignment trend. The MACD index red column shortens the vulnerable area which will soon fall below the 0 axle, and the weakness will continue. In December, the contract will challenge the support of the lower 69 cents / pound area.

The economic data released in early August showed that China, the United States and the euro economy continued downward trend, while the expectation of the Fed's quantitative easing is expected to fail. This is in the macro cotton inhibition of cotton prices.

Rumors that China will throw 1 million tons of reserves will be verified in the near future. Rumours of simultaneous issuance of quotas still exist, which will lead to an increase in domestic resources supply.

The global economic downturn and the recession of the euro zone economy have led to a shrinking consumption in the international market. China's exports continue to decline, consumption is sluggish, and the stocks of downstream cotton and grey fabrics remain high. Consumption does not support the rise in cotton prices.

That is, the macro level and fundamentals do not support the rise in cotton prices, the future cotton prices will maintain a downward trend, keep the short ideas continue to hold Zheng cotton 1301 contract empty, pay attention to 18600 yuan / ton supporting position and 19100 yuan / ton pressure level.

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[Huaan futures] lingering around. The trend of Zheng cotton is still weak.

Key points:

1, the Fed's concerns about the US economic outlook have intensified. However, the new economy (310358, fund) has not been launched. It only implies that the desire for further easing measures will be strengthened, the market sentiment will be frustrated and the commodities will be under pressure.

2, the florescence bank lowered three months cotton futures price anticipation, from 83 US dollars per pound to 67 US dollars;

3, China's weak demand, the global 2012/13 year

Volume or slide 20%.

External trend: New York, August 2nd, ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher on Thursday, and broker said it was driven by a small number of speculators, adjusting positions for investors before the US government released important data.

The market is waiting for the us to announce key employment data on Friday, as well as the monthly supply and demand report released by the US Department of agriculture in August 10th.

The December cotton contract closed at 70.97 cents a pound, up 0.41 cents, trading between 70.21-71.30 cents.

Early comment: Although the ECB meeting disappointed investors, it was boosted by favorable data from the US cotton export report. Overnight, the US cotton rose slightly, but the technology was constrained by the 60 day moving average pressure. In the domestic market, the price of the spot market was stable, but the downstream textile industry was struggling, the inventory of products was high, the capital pressure was high, and the use of raw materials was still in line with the purchase.

In addition, investors are hesitant to sell and reserve quotas. Investors are also hesitant. The recent trading volume is light, maintaining a narrow range of oscillations and waiting for market direction.

Although there is support for the new annual storage price, it is still not appropriate to enter the market.

The price difference between the MA1209 market and the futures market is 535 yuan / ton, with a considerable profit in the period of.

Operation, Zheng cotton main contract 1301, short-term participation, waiting for market information has confirmed the direction.

[MEIKO futures] cotton city waits for direction to guide internal and external disk sideways shocks.

Overnight, in August 2nd, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, stimulating the dollar to expand against the euro, and the commodity market was under pressure.

However, ICE cotton futures were not interfered by the peripheral market, and slightly increased under a small speculative buying.

USDA US cotton export data show that last week the US cotton contract volume exceeded 40 thousand tons, significantly increased compared with the previous week, but China's procurement volume is not large.

Analysts said that the recent ICE futures market has remained light trading, cotton prices are difficult to break through the 70-75 cent oscillation area, the horizontal pattern will continue.

News, the US Department of agriculture (2012.7.20-26) US cotton export weekly: when the week, 2011/12, the United States cotton export net contract volume of 9 thousand tons.

The net contract volume of US cotton exports was 38 thousand and 400 tons in 2012/13.

During the week, the export volume of the US upland cotton was 68 thousand and 400 tons, up 97% from the previous week, 56% higher than the average value of the previous four weeks, and it was mainly shipped to China (42 thousand and 700 tons).

In the international market, in August 2nd, the price of China's main imports of cotton imports generally declined, most varieties fell 0.75 cents, while West Africa cotton declined by only 0.25 cents.

For external cotton, supply pressure is difficult to alleviate, and insufficient import cotton quota is always an important reason for the indigestible cotton inventory.

Although the growth of new cotton in India is in trouble, the positive effect is hard to be reflected before the downstream demand is insufficient.

Domestic market, 2, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly.

At present, the overall supply and demand pattern of cotton has not changed. There is a lack of boosting factors in the short term. Therefore, the cotton price trend is still in a weak position. If the domestic cotton price falls completely in line with the price of imported cotton, or if it does not appear in continuous rainy weather, the cotton price will rise again after the beginning of the new year. Besides, it is difficult to find a reason to support the rise in cotton prices.

Spot quotation, August 2nd, the US C/A cotton quotation is 85.35 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 14781 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 91.60, the general trade port price is 15581 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton price is 89.60, the general trade port price is 15319 yuan / ton, the West African cotton price is 85.60, the general trade port delivery price is 14689 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation is 84.60, the general trade port delivery price is 14843 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19438 yuan / ton; the B index is 18529 yuan, rising by 3 yuan.

Market analysis, at present, only 2 months to the new year. Combined with the actual situation of the industry, the market is expected to rise again to the National Reserve Bank and the increase of quotas.

US cotton continues to narrow in the 70 line, waiting for the Zhengzhou guide.

In the near future, it will probably remain around 19000.