September 21, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan / ton; C32S price 25630 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 19 day, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly. Recently, the sales volume and paction price of national cotton store have been gradually decreasing, and textile enterprises' demand for raw materials has declined.

3. imported cotton: in September 20th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton continued to rise, and most varieties rose 0.5 cents.

For the recent rise in cotton prices, many textile mills are hard to accept, and the market volume has been significantly affected.

The industry believes that the recent increase in cotton prices and the fundamentals are not much related, so the rising base is not strong.

Judging from the current situation, textile production and production is still widespread, and the willingness to replenishment is not high.

4. cotton throwing storage: on the 18 day, it was approved by the national development and Reform Commission and other departments. In view of the large number of new flowers listed, the reserve will be closed on the 29 th of this month, and the quota of imported cotton will no longer be issued in the latter half of the year.

5. the purchase and storage of new cotton: in September 19th, China cotton reserve management company plans to store and store 50000 tons of cotton in 2012, and the actual turnover is 12190 tons, with a turnover rate of 24.38%.

6.ICE cotton: in September 20th, the US cotton export figures were not as good as expected, and the pressure on the Chinese manufacturing industry was still slowing down in September. The pressure on the market was more obvious. ICE futures opened lower, and the gradual increase of the selling led to the recent increase in December contracts, which eventually dropped 119 points.

Summary:

At the same time, the price is different.

The dumping and storage actually reflect the cotton prices in circulation in Chinese society.

After the purchase and storage starts, the cotton resources will flow to the national reserve.

But before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices will not change. The circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price. However, closing up is far from being able to achieve.

The national cotton situation analysis confirmed that the dumping will be closed on the 29 day of this month, and the quota of imported cotton will no longer be issued in the latter half of the year. Zheng cotton has risen and will not come down.

Operation continues the strategy of lowering prices, but the current cotton fundamentals do not support Zheng cotton's continuous sharp rise.

[GF futures] capital speculation is obvious

[market performance]

The US Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed down on Thursday. Investors were making profits. The market was gloomy with the economy. But the cotton market showed stronger resilience this week than many other commodities. In December, the CTZ2 settlement fell 1.19 cents, or 1.6%, at 75.22 cents per pound. The intraday trading range was between 76.40 and 75.05 dollars. The Thursday decline was the largest since September 12th.

The Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange 1301 closed at 19780 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton; the daily turnover was 124766 hands; the position increased, 3180 days to 3180 hands to 240268 hands.

[spot market]

Cotton spot quotation maintained a slight rebound, and the deal was dull.

The national cotton index is two yuan cotton, 19585 yuan, and the three grade cotton price is 18650 yuan / ton, up 8 yuan / ton.

[industry news]

In September 19th, the planned storage and storage of 50000 tons, the actual turnover of 12190 tons, the paction ratio of 24.4%.

Among them, the Xinjiang warehouse point plan to close and store 20000 tons, actually clinch a deal of 10990 tons, with a turnover rate of 55%.

[operation suggestion]

Zheng cotton funds obvious signs of short - cut, cotton city is currently subject to policy implications, and then up to 20200 front-line, but it is difficult.

Note how the weak spot market is in line with the high purchase price, good support time or limited, it is recommended that more than 19700 of the above should be reduced by weight.

Although the US cotton sold 45 thousand tons overnight and China imported 19 thousand and 400 tons, the US manufacturing and initial unemployment claims data were disappointing. Investors sold the risk assets including commodities. The price of overnight grain dropped again. ICE cotton suffered more than a single profit selling and down. In December, the contract fell 1.19 cents to 75.22 cents / pound, and continued to remain unchanged. In the case of a weak market, ICE cotton will continue to be vulnerable and continue to challenge 75 cents / pound support position.

On Thursday ICE cotton was closed, but the December contract still stands at 75 cents / pound strong support, extending the 75-77.5 bar / pound crosses area. Although the medium and short term average line system keeps rising, the KD and MACD indicators continue to fall short, MACD index green column growth, the weak will continue, December contract will challenge the support position of 75 cents / pound, if the support falls, the downtrend will continue, otherwise it will continue 75-77.5 cents / pound crosses area.

China's dumping and storage is still serious. It shows that the downstream textile enterprises have limited demand for raw materials. Although the enthusiasm of enterprises has increased and turnover has continued to increase, the increase in the number of new cotton has increased the pressure of market supply, and the overall market is still in a downturn.

And the new cotton market, the cost is significantly lower than the price of Zheng cotton, some enterprises have increased desire to maintain value, Zheng cotton may be suppressed by selling value, so Zheng cotton will follow ICE

Down, the 1301 contract will challenge 19700 yuan / ton supporting position, if this support fails to continue to increase the empty list, the target to 19400 yuan / ton line.