PMI Rebound In Manufacturing Sector Shows Economic Stabilization Trend

National Bureau of Statistics

The survey report released by the survey center and China logistics and purchasing Federation in October 1st showed that the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in September was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, reaching the critical point (50%), the first rise since the 4 month's decline in May.

Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, said that the main index of sub index has dropped slightly, and most of the indexes have picked up in varying degrees, especially the main leading index such as the new order index and raw material inventory index have picked up obviously. This shows that the effect of the policy measures of the steady growth of the country has gradually emerged, and the economic operation has gradually stabilized and stabilized, which has laid a good foundation for the stable growth of the four quarter economy.

According to the survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing industry in September, Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic research of the State Council Development Research Center, said, "the PMI index in September has picked up, indicating that the signs of economic stabilization are obvious.

The rise in the new orders index reflects the steady growth in domestic investment and consumer demand, and the rise in the new export orders index indicates that exports are beginning to recover.

Finished product inventory index continued to decline, raw material purchasing index picked up, indicating that the enterprise to inventory activities basically ended.

Production index rebounded showed that the impact of the increase in orders, business production began to recover.

Comprehensive analysis, the downward trend of economic growth has begun to change, and it is expected that economic growth will steadily increase in the future.

Specifically, bottom stabilization is the first manifestation of stable demand for domestic demand.

This year, the new orders index has been showing a downward trend in the trend of shocks. This month, a marked recovery of 49.8%, a 1.1 percentage point rise from last month, is the main driving force for the PMI rally this month.

From the perspective of the industry, market demand for tobacco products, food and alcoholic beverages, refined tea manufacturing and other industries increased significantly.

From the later stage, the Mid Autumn Festival and the national day will promote the social consumption to rise obviously. A new round of infrastructure investment plan, which is nearly trillion yuan, will start gradually. It will support the steady growth of fixed assets investment, and the foundation of domestic demand growth is more solid. It is expected that the trend of stabilization and recovery will gradually take shape.

Second, the downward trend of exports has been curbed.

The new export orders index has declined significantly for several consecutive months, rising 2.2 percentage points to 48.8% this month, indicating that the downward trend of exports has been curbed, and the latter export is expected to gradually stabilize and resume growth.

September

It also showed that the current industrial production showed signs of stabilization and recovery.

The finished product inventory index this month was 47.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, below 50% for 3 consecutive months, and fluctuated slightly in recent months.

The purchasing volume index rebounded significantly.

The change of the two indices shows that the stock taking activities in the production link are coming to an end.

The end of the production index fell, a slight rise of 0.4 percentage points, to 51.3%, indicating that with the end of inventory adjustment and orders recovery, the growth rate of post industrial production will resume recovery.

Although manufacturing PMI has picked up this month, it is still at a low level, most of which are below 50%.

The overall recovery was mainly due to food, beverages, tobacco, etc.

The impact of rising livelihood sectors such as medicine and other industries has led to a certain festive effect, and the underlying raw materials industry is still downhill. Equipment manufacturing industry has shown some degree of decline in recent two months, indicating that the current domestic productive and investment demand needs further improvement.

It is noteworthy that the price index has risen significantly in recent two months. Combined with the fact that many countries in the world have adopted loose monetary policy in order to stimulate economic growth, the import inflation pressure has increased at present, and the strong rebound of upstream product prices should be prevented.

We need to accelerate structural adjustment, promote the pformation and upgrading of traditional industries, promote the pformation of business models, promote the rise of new industries, and smooth pition, so as to open a new economic development cycle with reasonable speed, good efficiency and solid foundation next year.