October 25, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

　 [Hongyuan futures]1 month contract focuses on 19450 strong support.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20520 yuan / ton; 229 level 19645 yuan / ton; 328 level 18791 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17969 yuan / ton. domestic Spin Product: polyester staple fiber 10690 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14360 yuan / ton; C32S price 25665 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 23, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly. State purchasing and storage high protection prices continue to curb the purchase of textile enterprises to real estate cotton, with the expansion of the difference between inside and outside cotton, a small number of textile enterprises choose 40% tariff import low price cotton.

3. imported cotton: in October 24th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton fell as a whole, of which Brazil cotton fell 2.25 cents while other varieties fell by 1.5-1.75 cents. Although the price range of imported cotton is not small, according to the current 86.30 cent of EMOT varieties in the United States, the 40% import tariff calculation is generally adopted in textile mills. The general trade pick up price of this variety port is 19254 yuan / ton, which is not attractive to textile mills. From the point of view of downstream demand, there is still room for further decline in textile production.

4. the purchase and storage of new cotton: in October 23rd, the Central Cotton store planned to store and store 2012 tons of cotton in 130500 tons and 77880 tons in actual operation. As of October 23rd, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage transactions totaled 1315970 tons, of which 304650 tons were traded in the mainland and 1011320 tons in Xinjiang.

5.ICE cotton: in October 24th, as the bull continued to leave, ICE futures fell again, and the December contract fell by 2.2%. At present, the market outlook is still bearish, and insufficient supply of resources and insufficient demand may lead to a 70 cent drop in cotton prices.

Summary:

A few days ago, the market worried that the quality of the new cotton quality in the United States was too high, which could not generate warehouse receipts, and it was also difficult for textile mills to accept it. However, under the background of weak cotton demand and large inventory in China, the quality problem of US cotton was not enough to significantly affect cotton prices in China. As ICE's early speculation of new cotton quality problems continued to leave, ICE futures fell again. Next, Zheng cotton still takes stability as the keynote, and affects or goes down in the short term of ICE cotton. But generally speaking, there is limited space in the storage and purchase period. Yesterday, CF1301 was supported by 19550, and today it is concerned about 19450 strong support.

[MEIKO futures] China relies on the storage and rescue period, and the pressure is high above cotton.

Overnight, as the Bulls continued to leave, ICE futures fell again, with a 2.2% decline in December. At present, the market outlook is still bearish, and insufficient supply of resources and insufficient demand may lead to a 70 cent drop in cotton prices. However, if the US weekly weekly report released by USDA tonight indicates that the market is still in demand, cotton prices are expected to be slightly supported.

On the news side, the European Parliament recently passed textiles and garments imported from Pakistan temporarily. shoes Such tariff exemption measures will have adverse effects on the EU textile industry, especially the cotton textile industry, which will be dissatisfied with the EU industry.

On the international market, 24 days, the price of China's main port of imported cotton fell down, of which Brazil cotton fell 2.25 cents, while other varieties fell by 1.5-1.75 cents. Although the price range of imported cotton is not small, according to the current 86.30 cent of EMOT varieties in the United States, the 40% import tariff calculation is generally adopted in textile mills. The general trade pick up price of this variety port is 19254 yuan / ton, which is not attractive to textile mills. From the point of view of downstream demand, there is still room for further decline in textile production. {page_break}

Domestic market, 24, domestic cotton spot prices are still relatively stable. Too much emphasis on price difference between the inside and outside of the market has actually covered many contradictions in the textile industry, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy has slowed down, and the growth of domestic demand market has begun to slow down. The pressure of textile sales has increased and demand is hard to be stimulated, which is the most critical challenge facing the textile industry at present.

In October 24th, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 79800 tons. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage transactions totaled 1395770 tons in 2012, including 329730 tons in the mainland and 1066040 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, 24 days, C/A cotton 89.10 (cents / pound, the same below). The general trade port delivery price is 15157 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax calculation), Australia cotton 95.10, discount general trade port delivery price 15943 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 92.60, discount general trade port delivery price 15609 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 86.35, discount general trade port delivery price 14814 yuan / ton; India cotton 85.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14661 yuan / ton. The national cotton price A index was 19646 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan; the B index was 18792 yuan, up 1 yuan.

Market analysis, as a result of price parity, the demand for China's cotton textile industry has always been undemanding. The current situation of the cotton textile industry has been pushed forward, but cotton farmers still have the mentality of holding up the goods. Cotton processing enterprises are forced to go to the fields because of the fact that the number of cotton in their hands is too small. The enterprises are very active in the storage. The whole industry relies on the purchase and storage of the government to maintain relatively stable prices. The external market fell back to 70 cents a line, with a lot of pressure on top; Zheng cotton was similar to the outside market.

Operation, the early empty single continue to hold, see the 60 day average line performance.

[German futures] U.S. cotton fell sharply, Zheng cotton biased air turbulence

On Wednesday, CF1301 opened up and left. CF1301 closed more than 4 hands, and its position decreased slightly. CF1301 closed at 19575 yuan / ton, down 85 yuan / ton, reduced 516 hand; in October 24th, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 85.91 cents / pound, fell 1.31 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13903 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14771 yuan / ton.

According to New York's October 24th news, the price of cotton during the ICE period fell 2.2% on Wednesday. After breaking the 100 day mobile average, the technology selling speed accelerated and the total gains were recorded. The ICE12 cotton contract fell 2.2% to 72.67 cents per pound.

In October 24th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10680 tons, 2020 tons less than the previous trading day, the order quantity reduced by 160 tons, and the total order 60200 tons. On the 24 day, the opening of each contract was brought to light. On the basic side, the price of all cotton yarn has dropped steadily in recent years, and turnover has improved slightly, but it is still deserted. Cotton by-products are still not well sold, and prices are falling. Polyester viscose quotation is also showing downward trend.

On Wednesday, Zheng cotton was at a low concussion, and the empty contract of the 01 contract continued to shift to the 05 contract. Compared with the 05 contract, the 01 contract will be more resistant in the future. It is suggested that the empty single holder shift to the 05 contract and the lower target 19300. Today's operation suggests that the empty list should be shifted to 05, and the reference price range of CF1305 is 19300-19600. {page_break}

[Wanda futures]ICE cotton fell sharply for two consecutive days

It is expected that US cotton production will be higher than expected, while global consumption has not improved. This led to a second consecutive drop in cotton for ICE on Wednesday. The main contract in December fell 1.6 cents to 72.67 cents / pound, while the position data showed that the position of December contracts dropped sharply on Tuesday, and the bull position became the main factor in the decline of cotton prices. In the northern hemisphere, the supply pressure of new cotton has increased, and the European debt crisis has intensified again. clothing The weakness of consumption and the lack of consumer buying have led to speculation that the December contract is expected to collapse. It is expected that cotton prices will continue to fall in the future, and the contract will challenge 70 cents / pounds in December.

Wednesday ICE cotton again mid shade reported, the December contract short-term average support fell, KD and MACD indicators have formed a downward trend of adhesion, MACD index red column shortened, cotton prices weakened, the trend will continue, December contract will once again challenge the strong support position of 70 cents / pound.

The spread of new cotton in the northern hemisphere and the spread of the European debt crisis have led investors to recover from the high risk market. There is no sign of revival in global textile and clothing consumption. The increase in supply, the downturn in consumption and the weakening of the macro level have led to the fall in International cotton prices. Up to October 21st, China had more than 80% of the cotton in the public inspection, and the circulation resources in the spot market were extremely limited, which constituted support for Zheng cotton. However, the divergence of cotton prices between inside and outside leads to the expansion of cotton price difference between inside and outside again. China's textile and apparel are not competitive in the international market. Effective consumption is squeezed by imported cotton and cotton yarn. Zheng cotton can hardly attract the interest of textile enterprises. Although Zheng cotton reflects a certain resilience, it lacks the support of capital and popularity, and it is hard to get rid of the long-term weakness pattern. It is expected that Zheng cotton will continue to decline with the US cotton on Thursday. Zheng cotton Keep the idea short and keep the 1301 contract empty, with a target of 19400 yuan / ton.