November 7, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures] buying power of no cotton spot Enterprises

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20520 yuan / ton; 229 level 19645 yuan / ton; 328 level 18791 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17969 yuan / ton. domestic Spin Product: polyester staple fiber 10450 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14310 yuan / ton; C32S price 25750 yuan / ton.

2. spot in the country: Although the domestic purchase and storage orderly promote cotton spot prices steady trend, but the spot market continued to slump and restrict the cotton price rebound height, textile enterprises do not seem to see the signs of demand rebound, many textile enterprises express concern about the high price of cotton.

3. imported cotton: in November 6th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton increased by 0.25 cents with ICE futures, while the Central Asian cotton and high-grade cotton rose slightly. Judging from the recent situation, the demand for ICE futures in 70 cents spot is relatively stable, and the possibility of deep price fall in the short term is less likely.

4. the purchase and storage of new cotton: last week (October 29, 2012 -11 2) was the 2012 week of cotton temporary storage and storage transaction for seventh weeks, and the weekly volume of warehouses in the mainland continued to increase. As of November 2nd, a total of 1 million 924 thousand and 500 tons were registered this year, of which 1 million 378 thousand and 300 tons in Xinjiang and 546 thousand and 200 tons in the mainland.

5.ICE cotton: in November 6th, ICE cotton rose after opening, and the contract broke 71 cents in December, then fell back, and then oscillating around 70 cents, eventually dropping 30 points. From the market situation, cotton prices fell to 70 cents after textile factory demand was aroused, which is the main reason for buying a lot of involvement in this position. In addition, traders value the USDA supply and demand report. If the fundamental pressure is too high, the release of short supply may lead to further downward price of cotton.

Summary:

The current cotton price level is equal to 40% of the total tariff and the price of domestic Xinjiang cotton is not equal. There is no great advantage in the price of cotton. Judging from the structure of Zheng cotton futures, when the price of zhengmian is higher than the cotton price of social circulation, the enterprises that buy cotton do not have the power to choose futures purchase channel. This determines that futures prices lose the buying power from spot enterprises. On the one hand, we must stick to the idea that "China's cotton price will be stable for a long time". On the other hand, we should pay full attention to the policy of purchasing and storing in operation, focusing on the idea of doing more with lower prices.

[MEIKO futures] cotton stage finishing during the cold season in Cotton City

Overnight, on the 6 day, ICE cotton rose after opening, and the contract broke down after 71 cents in December, then fell back and forth around 70 cents, and finally dropped 30 points. From the market situation, cotton prices fell to 70 cents after textile factory demand was aroused, which is the main reason for buying a lot of involvement in this position. In addition, traders value the USDA supply and demand report. If the fundamental pressure is too high, the release of short supply may lead to further downward price of cotton.

In the international market, 6 days, the price of China's main port of imported cotton increased by 0.25 cents with ICE futures, and slightly increased in Central Asia cotton and high-grade cotton. Judging from the recent situation, the demand for ICE futures in 70 cents spot is relatively stable, and the possibility of deep price fall in the short term is less likely. With the acquisition and storage of resources, the resources of high-grade cotton will be scarce again. Under the condition of insufficient quotas, the cotton prices that are good and can arrive on time will continue to be concerned by textile mills. At the end of the year, the price of forward cotton is expected to maintain a steady trend and there may be a moderate rise.

The domestic market, on the 6 th, although the orderly purchase and storage of domestic products promoted the steady price of cotton spot prices, but the spot market continued to slump and restricted the rebound of cotton prices. Textile enterprises seemed to see no signs of demand recovery, and many textile enterprises expressed concern about the high price of cotton.

State Reserve dynamics, November 6th National Cotton temporary store up Turnover of 69140 tons, as of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage transactions totaled 2063970 tons, of which 607450 tons in the mainland, and 1456520 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, 6 US C/A cotton 87.10 (cents / pound, same below), discount general trade port delivery price 14772 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax calculation), Australia cotton 92.85, discount general trade port delivery price 15498 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 89.80, discount general trade port delivery price 15107 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 84.35, discount general trade port delivery price 14442 yuan / ton; India cotton 83.35, discount general trade port delivery price 14324 yuan / ton. The national cotton price A index was 19653 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan; the B index was 18798 yuan, up 2 yuan.

Market analysis, the new year's global sugar futures stock surge, of which more than half of them are in the national reserve, coupled with the new year's decline in the United States cotton grade, resulting in the majority of high-grade cotton in China, although consumption is still weak, but the price trend depends more on future National Reserve regulation, policy tends to maintain stability, so cotton prices will steadily return to industry demand. Zheng cotton fluctuates in the 19000-20000 interval, and the direction of the axis is chosen.

Operation, concerned about the performance near MA60, waiting for band direction selection.

　 [Wanda futures] main market for exhibition trading, U.S. cotton shock down

The extended trading has become the mainstream of market transactions in the near future. The fund continues from the December contract to the March contract. The cotton price is the highest once to 72.34 cents / lb, but due to the lack of good fundamentals, USDA will announce the monthly supply and demand report in November this weekend. It is expected that consumption will continue to be downgraded, which will lead to a fall in ICE cotton and a 0.41 cent to 71.24 cents / pound in March. Recently, the new cotton market in the northern hemisphere is on the market. Supply pressure is increasing. The fund is tied to the December contract, and the short-term weakness will continue. The March contract will challenge 70 cents / pound strong support position. {page_break}

On Tuesday, ICE cotton fell to a higher level, and small Yin closed. The main force in March stood at 70 cents / pound, but it was still suppressed by the short-term average. The short and medium term average line kept a short fall in alignment, and the KD and MACD indexes continued to fall short. The MACD index green column began to grow, and the downward trend did not change. In March, the contract will challenge 70 cents / pound strong support position.

As of November 6th, China's public inspection of cotton 83.72% into the storage, far higher than the previous year, according to the daily average of 70 thousand tons of incoming reserves, the end of this month will reach 3 million 320 thousand tons of storage capacity, exceeding the total 3 million 250 thousand tons of total reserves in the previous year, in the spot significantly lower than the reserve price, it is expected that the current year will exceed 4 million tons of storage. The India government may buy and store 1 million 530 thousand tons of cotton in its domestic market, which will reduce the supply of international low-cost cotton. However, India's storage and purchase has not yet been determined. Meanwhile, the new cotton market in India and the United States is on the market, and the supply pressure is showing. However, the import policy of China's new year has not clearly dampled China's buying. The huge price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continues to inhibit China's exports and consumption. The domestic spot and Zheng cotton are hard to get the favor of textile enterprises, lack of funds and popularity support, Zheng cotton rebound hard to change the long-term weakness, continue to hold empty list, pay attention to the strong support position of 19000 yuan / ton.

[one German futures] US general election is good, Zheng cotton is on the high end.

CF1305 opened low on Tuesday, and CF1305 closed more than 6.9 million hands. CF1305 closed at 19190 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, reduced 10664 hand; in November 6th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 84.11 cents / pound, up 0 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13539 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14490 yuan / ton.

According to New York's November 5th news, ICE cotton futures rose slightly on Monday, and the market lacked the direction of trading. ICE12 contract settlement price rose 0.1%, at 70.40 cents per pound.

In November 6th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 11260 tons, a decrease of 460 tons compared with the previous trading day, a reduction of 2340 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 58640 tons. On the 6 day, the opening of the contracts was mixed, and the majority of them ended down. Basically, the storage capacity has nearly 2 million tons, accounting for about 83.32% of the public inspection volume. The market has high enthusiasm for storage, and its proportion is still on the rise, resulting in less spot. However, with the massive listing of cotton and India cotton, huge domestic and foreign cotton prices will inhibit the uplink of domestic cotton prices. In addition, the long-term prospect of cotton market is worrying because of the lack of improvement in demand and high inventory.

Tuesday Zheng cotton But if the technical indicators are dead, Zheng cotton will only make technical and information rebounding. Today the US general election will be over, and Zheng cotton is ready to finish high. Today's operation suggests that a high price can be reached, and the reference price range of CF1305 is 19100-19500.