2013 Textile And Garment Industry Tends To Be Dull And Future Growth Depends On Characteristics.

< p > < strong > industry view < /strong > < /p >

< p > 2012, no matter < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > export < /a > or "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "domestic sales, the textile industry" /a "efficiency has declined.

According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, in 2012 1-10, the year-on-year growth rates of retail sales and retail sales were 14.2% and 2.4%, respectively, compared with 20.4% and 4.9% in 2011. The total export volume of textiles and clothing was 209 billion 900 million US dollars, an increase of 2% over the same period last year, which is far from the growth rate of 24.99% in 2011.

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< p > 2013 may be < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > industry efficiency < /a > bottom year: the four major factors that slow down the industrial efficiency are difficult to change, that is, macroeconomic slowdown, overexpansion and high cost demand are suppressed and homogenized.

Relatively speaking, the recovery of the export manufacturing industry may be a little earlier than that of the retail industry because of the early start of the integration of the export manufacturing industry and the recovery of overseas demand; < /p >

< p > export manufacturing enterprises are likely to bottom up slowly: the slow recovery of demand brought by the recovery of the US economy, and the reduction of production capacity after 2 years of deep integration in the industry. Besides, domestic consumption may still be unsatisfactory, but the rate of decline will undoubtedly be less than 12 years. The export efficiency of these export manufacturing enterprises is improved. It is estimated that the export of textile and clothing is still similar to that of 12 years in 13 years.

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< p > textile and garment brand retail enterprises may hit bottom in the first half of next year: when consumption slows down, the initial stage is the increase in inventory and the deterioration of financial indicators (worsening quarterly from the beginning of this year), and then the closing of stores to reduce the supply and adjust the structure to survive the crisis.

We expect that in the first half of next 3-6 months, the number of stores will be significantly higher than that of previous years. The bottom of the entire textile and garment retail sector will probably come. In the medium and long term, brand businesses need to change their business models, enhance their characteristics and emphasize their internal lives.

From a single enterprise, it will take a long time to repair the damaged balance sheet in the future.

So the recovery after bottoming is long and slow.

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< p > chemical fiber plate or stage opportunities: chemical fiber industry has been losing money for 2 consecutive years, and has strong price rebound power.

We believe that there will be a rebound in the traditional price rebound next year, that is, the Spring Festival and the August before the traditional peak season.

However, due to no obvious improvement in supply and demand, the price rebounding is limited and suitable for phase intervention.

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< p > < strong > risk warning < /strong > < /p >

< p > we judge the bottom of the industry next year, but there is a long and low risk of bottom and recovery, making manufacturing and retail textile companies lingering at the bottom for a long time, thereby affecting investor confidence.

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< p > from the perspective of investors, domestic investors do not have the opportunity to experience the process of brand decline and stock price collapse (such as sportswear, fortune global, China trend, etc.), like Hongkong and European and American investors, and the domestic market is dominated by investment products. Investors are accustomed to investing in investment products from the top down thinking. They are too optimistic about the opportunities brought by future consumption driven economy to individual enterprises, which will make the valuation of domestic textile and garment retail for a long time difficult to stabilize.

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< p > textile and garment retail enterprises will have the possibility of repairing the balance sheet by sacrificial profit and loss statement next year, so that their performance is lower than expected.

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