Analysis Of Acrylic Fiber Product Profit In 2012

The year 2012 has ended. Acrylic fiber industry For example, experience is bleak.

The following is a profit analysis chart of the domestic acrylic products in the 2009-2012 years. The average price of the acrylonitrile East China port and the cash flow of 3D tow in East China are sent to the price. The theoretical profit is the data of the raw material cost and the production cost after the acrylic price is sold out. The raw material consumption of acrylonitrile is 0.95, and the cost of production is based on the investigation of annex chemical. The domestic factory production cost is 4000-5000 yuan / ton, and the production cost is 4500 yuan / ton.

The picture shows 09 years after the 08 financial crisis. Acrylic fibres Products and raw materials acrylonitrile are all rising unilaterally. At the beginning of the year, the price difference between acrylic fiber and raw materials is large and profits are relatively large. Since then, the price difference between them has been narrowing gradually, and the acrylic products have been in a state of loss. After 10 years, the production of acrylic products has been reduced to 729 thousand tons / year from the original 870 thousand tons / year through the industry integration, and the domestic supply and demand side has reached a relatively balanced state. The profit level of the whole year in 11 years is quite impressive. However, in the 12 year, the profit value of the remaining period is negative except for the first quarter, and the profit value will only return to the top of the line until the end of the year.

At the beginning of 12, raw materials acrylonitrile market was centralized and overhauled at home and abroad. The supply side was tight and the stock market kept rising. At the highest time, the price of the acrylonitrile port in East China was close to 18000 yuan / ton, to the highest point in 12 years. In the 1 quarter, the mainstream factories were rising frequently. The acrylic fiber market generally rose at the same time as raw materials, rising by 3000 yuan / ton, and the interval between raw materials and raw materials was obvious. The average profit in the first quarter was over 1000 yuan / ton, with a maximum value of 2500 yuan / ton. At this stage, the mainstream factories in China maintain more high operating rate, and the average level of operation in the industry is above 9. However, the downstream demand has not been synchronized, and a large number of acrylic stocks are backlog in all sectors of the industry. In addition, the import volume of acrylic fiber in the 1 quarter is also blowout. According to customs data, the import of acrylic fiber in China alone was nearly 29 thousand tons per month in February alone, and over 50 thousand tons in February and March, an increase of about 56% over the same period last year. Oversupply has become the norm in the market and foreshadowed the fall of acrylic fiber market in the later period.

In the 2 quarter, raw material acrylonitrile is turning sharply down, and the supply and demand side is seriously unbalanced. Acrylic Market Entering the downstream channel and continuing to the end of the 2 quarter, the total fell more than 6000 yuan / ton, acrylic fiber products began to appear in a loss situation. In the 3 quarter after that, although the acrylic fiber market followed the trend of raw materials again, the final increase was always in a state of deficit with raw materials being out of sync. In the 4 quarter, especially from November, the raw material acrylonitrile went down to the low level in the second half of the year, and the acrylic market kept on consolidation. The price difference between raw materials and the raw materials increased again. According to the picture, the theoretical profit is always above 1000 yuan / ton.

In 2012, the performance of acrylic products was not satisfactory, and the status of the industry in 2013 could be changed. In this regard, the author thinks: first, the fluctuation of acrylonitrile trend is more narrower in the 13 years, which is more favorable for the acrylic fiber market with relatively slow reaction; secondly, after the industry integration and chemical fiber products substitution in previous years, the current acrylic market is mainly supported by rigid demand, and the overall supply and demand fundamentals have not changed much. Once again, from a macro perspective, although many problems in the peripheral macroeconomic environment have not yet been fundamentally solved, more market participants have more hope for 2013, and many data have shown that the global economy is picking up very slowly. To sum up, as far as acrylic fiber market is concerned, though the market of acrylic fiber in 2013 is difficult to have a big market, it is better than that in 2012.