Analysis Of Cotton Futures In January 21, 2013

< p > < strong > [Lai Da a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > futures < /a > spot index decline, Zheng cotton high callback < /strong > /p >

< p > domestic trend: on the 21 day, Zheng cotton 1305 contract opened a high callback, closed a medium Yin K line, opened at 19615 yuan / ton, closed at 19475 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day fell 95 yuan / ton, the highest price 19615 yuan / ton, the lowest price 19470 yuan / ton.

Trading volume decreased slightly, and positions were reduced by 10846 to 166436 hands.

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< p > external trend: Cotton jumped to a eight month high on Friday. Speculators are expected to have strong export demand from China and continue to buy cotton futures. The Chinese government continues to increase strategic reserves of cotton. The most active March contract for intercontinental exchanges rose 0.77 cents, or 0.99%, at 78.55 cents a pound. Last month's cotton futures contract recorded the largest weekly gain since October.

The ICE market will be closed for public holidays on Martin Luther King day on Monday (January 21st).

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< p > 1, Kazakhstan new flower processing work went smoothly. By January 18th, the country had processed 188 thousand tons of seed cotton and about 61 thousand tons of cotton lint, accounting for 70% of the total output this year.

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< p > 2, 2012 < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > industry exports increased by 3%, the second lowest level in 20 years, the lowest time was 2009, and exports were negative, -9.65%.

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< p > spot: cotton index 328 price is 19286 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day fell 1 yuan / ton.

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< p > point of view: < /p >

< p > cotton spot index fell unexpectedly, leading to Zheng cotton price dive.

Technically, Zheng cotton 1305 contract high callback, breaking the 5 day average line support, short-term volume can shrink, suggesting that the rebound is difficult to continue.

On the operation, the midline dropped short.

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< p > [MEIKO futures] high grade cotton supply is less, cotton concussion goes higher than /p.

< p > overnight overnight, in January 18th, ICE cotton futures contract continued to rise, with the main contract in March closed up 77 points, clearing price hit a new high of 8 months, while the far month contract trend weakened, 2014 and 2015 monthly contracts generally lower.

Analysts said that China's continued increase in strategic reserves, the demand for foreign cotton in textile mills and the decline in US cotton planting area all had a positive impact on the market, and ICE cotton is expected to remain strong.

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< p > international market. On the 18 day, the price of China's main port of imported cotton rose again, and most varieties rose 0.5 cents.

From the market feedback situation, cheap cotton continues to be favored by textile mills. As long as the 40% import duty paid price is lower than that of throwing and holding auction, the import of foreign cotton will not stop. At the moment, the sales of India cotton with 83-84 cents will be the best.

At present, there are quite a few quantities of cotton outside Hong Kong, but with the continuous purchase of textile mills, there will not be much room for foreign cotton falling.

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< p > domestic market, 18 days, domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly.

At present, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is maintained at 4000 to 5000 yuan / ton. The state regulates the market through high price storage and low price dumping. On the one hand, in order to raise the international cotton price, the price difference between inside and outside cotton is narrowed, and on the other hand, in order to reduce the production cost of domestic enterprises and enhance their global competitiveness,

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< p > National Reserve dynamics: 1, as of January 18th, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 5788660 tons; 2, 18 days, dumping and storage pactions 26600.8715 tons, turnover rate 34.50%.

The 328 class paction price is 19039 yuan / ton (public weight), lower than CNCotton B 19293 yuan / ton 200 yuan / ton.

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"P > spot quotation, January 18, C/A cotton 93.60 (cents / pound), port delivery price 15679 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), Australia cotton 97.85, port delivery price 16184 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 95.85, port delivery price 15944 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 88.85, port delivery price 15140 yuan / ton; India cotton 86.35, port delivery price 14868 yuan / ton.

CNCotton A 20116 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan; CNCotton B 19293 yuan, up 3 yuan.

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< p > market analysis. Recently, the proportion of actual turnover of cotton reserves has been over 50%, and raw material supply of textile enterprises has gradually become loose, and the spot market of cotton lint has been suppressed.

However, at present, the supply of high-grade cotton in the lint spot market is relatively small, and the willingness of the holding company to increase its price is strengthened, and the overnight ICE cotton continues to grow. All these support the domestic market.

Zheng Mian 19000-20000 interval axis 19500, now entered the upper half of the region.

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< p > operation.

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< p > < strong > [Wanda futures] much profit, so that the United States cotton 4 plus yang to create a new high of 8 months < /strong > < /p >

Good export sales figures released on Thursday (P) continue to be good for the market, and the market expects that the US cotton planting area will reach a 25 year low in 2013. Chinese buyers are buying large quantities of cotton and also supporting ICE cotton. Friday's ICE cotton break through the 78 cent / pound pressure level, closing 0.77 cents to 78.55 cents / pound, once again refreshing the new high in the past 8 months.

From the CFTC data, both the fund and the index fund continue to increase more holdings. Good export sales data and expectations for falling cotton planting area in the new year will continue to attract speculative buying. Expect the ICE cotton rebounding will continue. The March contract is expected to challenge 84 cents / pound pressure level.

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< p > ICE cotton on Friday, the fourth consecutive day of the 8 consecutive month, the main contract breaking 78 cents / pound pressure level, the average system maintained a good long rise, KD and MACD index continued to rise in a row, MACD index red column growth, rebound trend unchanged, such as March contract can stand 78 78 / 78 for three consecutive days, the upward goal will be 84 cents / pound line.

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On Friday, Zheng cotton continued to rebound under the support of speculative capital speculation and tight warehouse receipts. As of January 18th, the storage capacity has reached 5 million 790 thousand tons. The shortage of new cotton warehouse receipts will become a major problem facing the market in the future and is expected to form a support for Zheng cotton.

But on Friday, the reserve price was contracted, and the turnover was only about 34.5%, about 26601 tons, the average price fell to 18418 yuan, and the total turnover was 174 thousand tons. In addition, the reserve cotton announcement said that the output of the warehouse was up to 3 million tons. Textile enterprises consumed only 1 million 660 thousand tons in the past 2 months, and the supply was far greater than that of consumption, which would put pressure on spot cotton prices.

Therefore, although Zheng cotton continues to rebound under the support of speculative buying, it is difficult to get the support of the fundamentals, nor does it look at the rally. If the 1305 contract breaks through 19800 yuan / ton, it will continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, otherwise it will rely on the pressure to increase its holdings of the empty list, with a short-term target of 19400 yuan / ton.

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< p > < strong > [one German futures] macro good Zheng cotton uplink steadily < /strong > < /p >

< p > CF1305 wide shocks on Friday. CF1305 closed 50 thousand hands, with a slight decrease in positions.

CF1305 closed at 19600 yuan / ton, up 55 yuan / ton, reduced 5992 hand; in January 18th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 87.70 cents / pound, up 0.29 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14072 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 15075 yuan / ton.

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< p > according to New York's January 18th news, cotton futures jumped to a eight month high on Friday. Speculators are expected to have strong export demand from China and continue to buy cotton futures.

The Chinese government continues to increase its strategic reserves of cotton.

The March ICE contract rose 0.77 cents, or 0.99%, at 78.55 cents a pound.

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< p > January 18th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10840 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared with the previous paction.

The order quantity is reduced by 40 tons, and the total order is 23590 tons.

On the 18 day, the contract was closed, and within a narrow range of days, the final price dropped.

At present, the market is relatively stable, dumping and storage become the center of gravity. At the same time, the low price of cotton outside the port is also concerned.

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"P" on Friday, Zheng cotton wide vibration, benign adjustment, along the 5 day line steadily pull up, rising channel healthy.

Technically, the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp "Zheng cotton < /a" has conquered the December high point and confirmed that many can continue to hold. The US cotton has made a breakthrough in its new high recognition, and the external atmosphere is good. If there is any adjustment, investors will be able to stop half the profit along the 5 day line or around 19450.

Today's operation suggests that holding more than one or 5 of the holdings will buy 9 combinations, and the CF1305 reference price range is 19400-19700.

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