Recent Trend Analysis Of Cotton Market: To Maintain Long-Term Thinking Should Be Temporarily Wait-And-See

< p > strong > International Spot > /strong > /p >

< p > January 31st, the price of China's main port of imported cotton rose again, and the price of most varieties increased by 0.5 cents.

According to cotton traders, the rise in cotton prices is basically not related to downstream demand. As cotton prices are much higher than that of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile > /a > factory is expected, the number of inquiry enterprises has been significantly reduced, and new orders are rare. However, the expectation of imported cotton quotas makes the market continue to be optimistic about China's demand, and it is difficult for foreign cotton prices to fall deep in the near future.

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< p > < strong > International Futures > /strong > /p >

< p > January 31st, ICE cotton competition between the two sides fierce competition, cotton prices several times trying to rush to the high point were suppressed sales, and finally March contract down 1 points to close, volume enlarged.

US cotton export data showed that the volume of contract signing decreased significantly last week, especially the reason why China textile mill was far away from the spot market due to quota, capital and high cotton price.

Analysts said that the recent market speculation atmosphere is too strong, the ICE cotton prices have not been completed, after a high level of consolidation, there is a possibility of continuing to rise.

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< p > < strong > domestic stock > /strong > /p >

< p > January 31st, domestic cotton Quotations (20285, -30.00, -0.15%) continued to rise, representing the national cotton price A index (CNCotton A) representing the 229 grade cotton price in the mainland was 20111 yuan / ton, up 4 yuan compared to January 30th; and the national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) representing the 328 cotton price in the mainland was 19287 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan.

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< p > < strong > domestic futures > /strong > /p >

< p > January 31st, CF1303 contract closed at 20270 yuan, down 30 yuan; CF1305 contract closed at 20360 yuan, down 10 yuan; CF1307 contract closed at 19235 yuan, down 75 yuan.

The total turnover in the market was 190214 hands, 203824 fewer than the previous trading day, and 338094 hands in total positions, an increase of 3996.

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< p > < strong > cotton information > /strong > /p >

< p > Hebei Cangzhou cotton deputy "counterattack", oil factory generally optimistic about the market outlook, in January 30th, Hebei Cangzhou city to maintain the acquisition and processing of cotton enterprises to further reduce, plus cotton farmers to stop sales, the average purchase volume has been reduced to 1000-2000 Jin / day, some enterprises even for a few days do not buy seed cotton, some large enterprises start about 10 days, cottonseed output dropped significantly.

At present, cotton seed cottonseed inventory is generally 5-20 kilograms, and the sentiment is strong and the quality is better. The mainstream price of cottonseed is quoted at 1.25 yuan / Jin, while the cotton oil factory's psychology of bullish is also growing.

According to Zhang manager, director of an oil plant, the company has 130 thousand jins of cottonseed inventory, but it can support only 13-15 days for their enterprises.

The market of cottonseed oil, cottonseed meal and cotton lint comes out with the coming of the Spring Festival.

At the moment, the retail price of the small package of refined oil before the festival is rising, while the oil factory inventory is at a low level. The pressure on the stock market is not very large. With the improvement of the external soybean (4842, -5.00, -0.10%) oil and palm oil (6840,32.00,0.47%) market, the fluctuation of the futures market is high, which brings confidence to the enterprises. The local quality is better, the mainstream sales price of the cottonseed oil is 7850 yuan / ton, and the price center of gravity continues to move upward.

At the same time, the cotton pulp market was more prosperous, and the cotton oil factory shipped smoothly. During the paction process, the farmers generally came home to purchase. The mainstream price of 40% protein cottonseed meal was quoted at 2580 yuan / ton, and the price rose 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous week.

It is understood that the recent development of pig farms in Hejian, Wuqiao, Xianxian County and other counties is gratifying. Many non professional farmers have joined the breeding team due to the sharp rise in pork market this year, stimulating the mentality of large quantities of stockpiling and pushing up the price of cottonseed meal.

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< p > Shaanxi: < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton enterprise < /a > sales after cotton saving, textile enterprises focus on purchasing cotton and cotton.

Since mid January, the purchase price of seed cotton in Shaanxi has been stable. It is understood that up to now, only 3% of the total cotton output is stored in the local cotton farmers. With the reduction of resources, and with the approaching Spring Festival, most cotton enterprises have stopped buying. Only two 400 types of enterprises have insisted on purchasing them. In January 30th, the purchase price of 4 seed cotton was 3.90 yuan / jin (below 10% of the moisture content, 35% of the lint), and the price of unified flower was 3.80 yuan / Jin, and the daily purchase amount was about 20 thousand.

It is reported that the local lint processing has also basically ended at the moment. In January 30th, the price of lint 3 was 19700-19900 yuan / ton (gross weight, delivery, tickets, cash, the same below), the 4 class price was about 19000 yuan / ton, and the 5 level price was 17000-17200 yuan / ton, which remained stable and the market was sporadic.

Up to now, there are about 1500 tons of local cotton enterprises' lint store, and cotton enterprises have said that there is little pressure on the sale of lint at present, and intend to wait until after the Spring Festival to see how the market will be re sold.

However, through interviews with reporters, it is found that most of the procurement of local textile enterprises are mostly on cotton reserves and outer cotton. A textile enterprise official told reporters that "at present, the price of foreign cotton has gone up, but later prices will have to fall back. What we have done recently is to find suitable cotton in the market and wait for the price to fall back."

Another textile enterprise with adequate cotton stocks also said, "our focus this year is cotton, and then we are equipped with better quality Xinjiang cotton. Later, we have better quality reserve cotton, and when we sell it, we buy some more. We do not consider the spot market at all."

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< p > India: traders are optimistic about exports, and domestic cotton prices are rising.

According to foreign reports in January 30th, India cotton exporters are active in purchasing this week, and domestic cotton prices in India are expected to rise.

Recently, the number of new cotton listed in India increased from 34 thousand tons to more than 40 thousand tons, but spot supply still decreased by 7%.

Traders expect China's import demand to remain strong, so actively replenish cotton stocks, resulting in a spot market price rise.

Data from India Cotton Association show that S-6's domestic spot price in India is close to 80.4 cents / pound.

India analysts said that although China's demand for India cotton will be reduced, demand from Southeast Asian countries will make up for the gap in the Chinese market.

To meet China's growing demand for cotton yarn imports, Bangladesh and Indonesia will expand their demand for India cotton.

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< p > < strong > market comment < /strong > < /p >

< p > < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > ZHENG cotton < /a > CF1305 contract to adjust the small Yin line, the daily line is restricted by the upper orbit of the upper box, but the center of gravity shifted to the high line on Tuesday, the central line maintained a favorable pattern; the 60 minute figure was blocked in the middle of May, and the volume of the reduction was larger today, and there was a possibility of short-term adjustment.

Zheng cotton CF1309 contract fell back to the Yin line, the daily line maintained above the EMA; the 60 minute chart formed an interval consolidation, and the short line may form a triangular pattern.

On the operation, it is suggested to keep long thinking and wait for a while.

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