The Impact Of Oil And Electricity Price Increase On China'S Shoe Leather Industry

The increase of electricity price raises the cost of ton steel. 7.5-12.5 yuan for steel products, because of the different cost structure of different Steel Corp and different steel products, it is impossible to measure the exact cost structure.

But in general, electricity consumption accounts for a relatively low proportion.

The rising price of steel and refined oil inevitably brings about the cost increase of the shoe leather industry, which has a deep impact on the leather machinery industry.

Assuming that the electricity consumption per ton of steel is 300-500 kwh, the increase in the sale price will increase the cost of ton steel by 7.5-12.5 yuan.

Compared with the current cost of molten iron, the increase is relatively low.

Due to the considerable amount of by-products and residual heat released during the iron and steel smelting process, the use of this energy to generate electricity by oneself has become the primary task of energy conservation in the iron and steel industry.

The national development and Reform Commission issued in 2005 the "iron and steel industry development policy" clearly pointed out that iron and steel joint enterprises with a scale of more than 5 million tons should strive to make enough supply of electricity and realize external supply.

Obviously, big steel is obviously more advantageous in using waste heat power generation than small steel mills. This advantage is reflected in the scale, and also reflected in the investment and protection of equipment.

According to the statistics, there are 9 provinces and cities own the largest power plant installed power plants for iron and steel enterprises, including Baosteel's own power plant or even the largest enterprise owned power plant in the country.

The above data show that the leading degree of large iron and steel enterprises investing in self owned power plants.

If we consider the power factor of our own power plant, the impact of this increase in electricity price on big steel is obviously smaller than that of small steel.

For the steel industry, long-term impact may include two aspects: cost and demand.

In terms of cost, considering the increase of the price of other raw materials and equipment caused by the increase of electricity price, the increase of dynamic cost may significantly exceed the result of static calculation before us. At the same time, whether the rise in price will obviously inhibit the demand for steel is worth further tracking and observation.

The price of oil products will still increase. The refined oil price adjustment will have a negative impact on the relevant railway freight pport, air and sea pportation, and automobiles.

After the adjustment, domestic and international oil prices still have more than 20% price differentials, and there will still be much room for improvement in the future, but this also depends on the trend of international oil prices. Meanwhile, the adjustment process should be gradual so as to avoid a greater impact on the national economy.

The change in demand caused by the increase in the price of refined oil will have a greater impact on speculative psychology, thereby reversing the irrational growth of the current oil price.

But we believe that oil prices will maintain high oil prices, it is difficult to return to the low price of the previous thirty or forty US dollars. From the perspective of strategic security, China should firmly develop the determination of coal based alternative energy, which is determined by the resource endowment of our country's rich coal.

In the domestic listed companies, Sinopec (600028) and PetroChina (601857) are the direct beneficiaries of the price adjustment and subsequent oil price reform.

What needs to be emphasized is that the price adjustment will only reduce Sinopec and Sinopec's oil refining business.

The worst days of the thermal power industry will be in the past, temporary price intervention measures and the increase in electricity prices at the same time, better than the previous expectations.

In order to prevent the rise of coal and electricity prices, the state intervenes in the price of electricity coal to ensure that the power generation enterprises can get real benefits.

From the perspective of the rise in the price of electricity coal, the sales price will be increased by 2.5 cents / kWh, and it is not expected to exceed 2 parts per kilowatt hour. The total cost of power generation enterprises can not be fully digested. Therefore, it is not a typical implementation of coal electricity linkage policy.

But this is a very significant decision.

At present, although CPI has dropped, the overall increase is still relatively high.

At this time, the state raised the price of electricity, highlighting the central government's determination to continue to push forward the reform of resource prices.

The increase of industrial electricity price and the implementation of peak valley tariff will effectively curb unreasonable demand for electricity and make electricity consumption more flexible.

Only when the demand is too strong can we reduce the demand for electricity and coal and ease the tension between supply and demand.

As coal prices continue to rise in the two quarter and electricity prices remain unchanged, we expect that the performance of power companies will be even worse in the two quarter than in the first quarter.

After the cap price policy is implemented, the price of coal in the three and fourth quarter will not exceed the two quarter, and the cost will be relatively locked.

After the tariff rises, the revenue generated by the generation company will be directly converted into net profit after deducting the tax effect, which will lead to an increase in net profit.

We judged that the two quarter performance should be the worst quarter of the year's performance.

The worst will be over in June.

The impact of the expressway traffic flow is not great. The increase of the refined oil price will affect the high-speed traffic flow from the two aspects of vehicle sales increment and the use of private cars, and the impact on commercial traffic will not be too great.

Judging from the history of the price adjustment of refined oil, it has basically been on the way of increasing oil prices in recent years, and in this process of price adjustment, the traffic flow of related listed companies is still keeping steady growth.

Only this increase has increased, the impact of the need for follow-up observation, but the market has been expected before the rise in the price of refined oil products, psychological tolerance, so the overall impact is limited, we maintain the industry's "optimistic" rating.

On the one hand, the profitability of the auto industry is more squeezed. On the one hand, oil is the raw material for intermediate products such as plastic, rubber, leather and chemical fiber, which are required by the automobile manufacturing process. The rise and fall of oil prices will lead to the rise or fall of manufacturing costs of automobile manufacturers. On the other hand, oil prices will directly affect the use of automobiles. High oil prices will increase the cost of use and suppress demand for automobiles. Conversely, falling oil prices will stimulate the demand of automobiles, thus affecting the demand of automobiles.

High grade cars.

Comparatively speaking, commercial vehicle belongs to the means of production. Most commercial vehicle demand shows a strong and indispensable feature, that is, rigid demand, and oil price fluctuation has little effect on its total volume, but it will have a structural impact.

After the oil price rises, the state will give financial subsidies to the passenger pport enterprises, and while the oil price increases to curb the demand for passenger cars, some consumers will turn to the choice of public pport, and the demand for large passenger will not be affected.

Rising oil prices will increase manufacturing costs.

The automobile industry is a widely involved industry. Many raw materials such as tyres, plastics and glass are used as raw materials for the manufacture of automobiles. Changes in crude oil prices will drive changes in the prices of raw materials mentioned above.

Because the price of domestic gum has been in line with the international rubber price, the domestic oil price increase has little effect on the price of gum, which will not lead to the increase in the price of gum, which will not lead to the rise in tire prices. But if the international oil price continues to rise, the price of automobile tires will still rise, which will still have a certain pressure on the cost of automobile manufacturing.

The gross profit margin of real estate enterprises has dropped by 1-3 percentage points. The adjustment of oil price and electricity price indicates that the inflation pressure is increasing, and the future price control will gradually relax. This will aggravate the negative impact on the economic and corporate profits in the near future and further affect the real estate demand. Besides, the high inflation also indicates that the credit will further tighten in the future, thus affecting the capital situation of the real estate industry. Based on this, we have downgraded the gross margin level of the real estate enterprises by 1~3 points, thus making the profit growth slowed down in 2008 and 2009, and the profit reduction rate is about 10%~15%.

In addition, due to conservative considerations, the assumption that Real Estate Company NAV will increase the price of future housing prices will be reduced from the original 5% price increase to no price rise in the next five years, and the overall valuation level of net asset value based on this will also decrease by 10%~15%.

At present, the weakness of the real estate market does not mean that house prices will never rise in the future, and the Chinese economy will not substantially decrease. Therefore, the stock price has already reflected the more pessimistic expectations. We are re analyzing the development prospects of the real estate industry and making further adjustments after the conclusion is reached.

As the real estate industry has a very obvious stage characteristics of settlement, so the performance is not continuous, and completion is concentrated at the end of the year, so settlement tends to be concentrated in the second half of the year, resulting in greater volatility in the first half of the year, and the difference between the performance of the whole year and the whole year is ten points.

In general, the slow pace of sales in the first half of the year made it difficult for companies to get more than expected results such as medium term profit and pre-sale.

In the near future, house prices are still in a downward trend, and the adjustment of the real estate industry is also difficult to end in the short term. In addition, the possibility of easing credit in recent policy faces is unlikely.