China'S Textile Performance Is Bright, Brand Clothing Is In Decline

　 machining spin Outstanding performance

According to the statistics of the Market Research Center, as of the 15th clothing A total of 48 companies in the industry disclosed their performance forecasts for the 2013 midterm report, of which 33 companies had good performance forecasts, accounting for 42.86% of the total number of companies in the industry, ranking second in 23 industries of the Shenyi level.

Specifically, among the 33 companies, there are 4 companies whose performance is expected to increase: Jinfeida (9.40, 0.19, 2.06%), Huafu Sefang (4.87, 0.02, 0.41%), Xunxing Shares (8.68, 0.35, 4.20%) and Toread (10.330, 0.17, 1.67%). The research report of CITIC Securities (10.86, 0.54, 5.23%) pointed out that the number of beneficiary orders rose steadily and the gross profit margin recovered, and the profits of processing and manufacturing enterprises in the first half of the year will generally be better than that in the same period last year, Cotton textile enterprises Especially outstanding performance.

From the perspective of market performance, among the textile and clothing stocks that have disclosed the expected performance in the mid report, 18 stocks have risen against the market since July (the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell by 0.70% over the same period), accounting for 54.55%. From the perspective of capital flow, among the textile and clothing stocks that have disclosed the expected performance in the Chinese report, 9 stocks have been favored by large single funds since July. These 9 stocks are respectively: Meixinda (11.81,0.11,0.94%) and Sima Clothes & Accessories (21.10,0.40,1.93%), Jiangsu Sunshine (2.30,0.04,1.77%), Jialinjie (3.48,0.13,3.88%), Bangjie Shares (12.27, -0.14, -1.13%), Demin Shares (7.01,0.06,0.86%), Xinye Textile (3.22,0.09,2.88%), Jiangsu Kuanda (7.92,0.12,1.54%) and Huarun Jinhua (10.72,0.12,1.13%).

　　 Brand clothing State decadent

A performance preview report of the 2013 interim report released by CICC shows that, Brand clothing The growth rate of the mid report performance is generally low, and even a large area of pre decline.

It is worth mentioning that several well-known domestic garment enterprises' interim performance forecasts in the first half of this year have fallen to varying degrees. Among them, the performance of Metersbonwe in the middle report fell by 48%, Youngor (5.91,0.12,2.07%) fell by 10%, Jiumuwang (11.95,0.35,3.02%), China Lilang (5.73,0.11,1.96%) and Baoxiniao (5.73,0.11,1.96%) also fell by 13%, 21% and 23% respectively.

about Brand clothing The poor performance was mainly due to the weak retail of clothing terminals and the low confidence of franchisees, according to the analysis report of CICC. In the second half of the year, the industry prospect is still not optimistic. According to the report, the company's performance growth in the second half of the year may be slower than that in the first half of the year due to the uncertainty of overseas demand and the general low confidence of franchisees.

In addition, at present Clothing industry It also faces the impact of international brands. It is reported that since late June, international fast fashion brands have been offering substantial discounts. The advance of the discount time reflects that international brands also have inventory pressure, but it also has a greater impact on domestic clothing brands with serious inventory problems. These enterprises have already felt the impact.

Yu Jin, head of Metersbonway Media, said that under the influence of the domestic economic environment, international clothing brands are beginning to feel the market pressure. "It is understandable to carry out low price promotions to drive consumers into stores. This year, the overall clothing brand discount promotions are ahead of schedule, especially in the first and second tier markets with fierce competition".

In addition, the contraction of the export market is also an important factor causing the decline of the performance of domestic apparel enterprises. According to EU customs statistics, from January to April this year, EU textile and clothing imports reached US $38.83 billion, up 0.2%. Among them, textiles increased by 3.4%, while clothing still declined by 0.8%.

EU imports from China still declined by 5%, while imports from ASEAN only increased by 0.6%. The growth of EU imports was mainly driven by Turkey and Bangladesh, the second and third largest sources of imports. EU imports from these two places increased by 9.2% and 4.1% respectively.

From January to April, the share of China's textile and clothing in the EU market further shrank to 35.3%, down nearly 2 percentage points over the same period last year; During the same period, ASEAN's market share in Europe has not changed much, and is basically flat.

Securities traders are looking down on the opportunities in the second half of the year

Bohai Securities believes that the consumption situation in the first half of this year is average, Clothing and home textile industry The growth rate is still declining, the order growth rate is declining, the store opening is very cautious, the external expansion is delayed, and the endogenous growth has not been greatly improved. Judging from the situation of major companies in the first half of the year, it is expected that the overall mid report performance of the textile and clothing industry will be average, the performance of some part-time companies will be better than the average level of the textile and clothing industry, and some of them will have valuation uplift, such as Bangjie Shares, which operate small loan companies, and companies with performance support whose mid report performance will significantly exceed the market average or exceed expectations, For example, Lutai A (8.87,0.05,0.57%) and Huafu Color Textile of cotton enterprises.

According to the analysis, the adjustment of cotton policy in the second half of the year will strongly promote the recovery of cotton textile enterprises' performance, and the terminal consumption is expected to reach the bottom and recover weakly. However, brand clothing enterprises will still face the pressure of slowing down performance growth, and clothing and home textile sector will also have few trend opportunities in the second half of the year.

Dongguan Securities [Weibo] research paper also believes that the inflection point of textile manufacturing has been confirmed and is expected to continue to rise. First of all, most raw material prices have dropped to a lower level in 2009. Second, inventory pressure has been reduced to the lowest level. After two years of de stocking, the initial inventory digestion of high priced raw materials has come to an end. Although the current operating pressure is still high, the industry has passed the worst time, and the overall situation is good.

But clothing Home textile sector The performance is still downward, and the turning point still needs to wait. Affected by the downturn in terminal consumption, the clothing and home textile industry will continue to adjust channels this year. Although the inventory has improved, the overall pressure is still great, and this year will continue to destock. Analysts predict that the destocking in the first quarter of next year may be near the end. Continue to increase support for franchisees, and the turnover efficiency of accounts receivable is still declining. The terminal consumption is sluggish, the orders of franchisees tend to be conservative, and the order meeting in autumn and winter of 2013 will be flat. The industry performance is still downward. At present, the industry valuation has hovered in the bottom area. The improvement of future valuation also depends on the establishment of industry inflection point, focusing on the improvement of business quality in the fourth quarter. The industry still lacks trend opportunities in the second half of the year, and the trend may keep pace with the overall market.