Cotton Tariff, Exchange Rate Adjustment And RMB Appreciation In October 2013

< p > the people's Bank of China authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market in September 18, 2013 was RMB 1 yuan =6.1557 yuan, so the tariff rate of import and export goods in 2013 October will be calculated at 1 yuan =6.1557 yuan.

Looking for imports and exports of cotton and < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > enterprise attention.

(September 2013 was 6.1675) < /p >

< p > in accordance with the Announcement No. fifty-third issued in 2005 by the General Administration of Customs in October 30, 2005, the exchange rate applicable to the import and export goods tax rates for each month is third Wednesday of the previous month (third Wednesday is a statutory holiday, and fourth Wednesday is postponed). The Bank of China's foreign exchange conversion price (referred to as the Bank of China's conversion price).

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< p > the impact of RMB appreciation on China's economy < /p >

P > exchange rate changes will affect foreign trade, change the balance of payments, and then affect a country's economic growth.

For China, the appreciation of the RMB will affect the economy from two aspects, namely, positive and negative.

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< p > from the positive analysis, if RMB appreciation has the following advantages, this is also the view that China agrees with RMB appreciation: < /p >

< p > the price of foreign products will decline, which will help to increase China's import of high-quality consumer goods and production equipment, raise living standards and industrial manufacturing level.

If RMB appreciates, under the strong current account balance of China, the average income of Chinese families will increase and purchasing power will increase correspondingly, so as to help about one billion people improve their living standard, and also provide conditions for the pition from domestic manufacturing to high quality products, so as to enhance the competitiveness of various industries in China.

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< p > the foreign investment ability of enterprises will be enhanced.

At present, China pays more attention to exports and the introduction of foreign capital, but with the further integration with the international market, Chinese enterprises will continue to expand overseas investment in order to open up sales channels, and the appreciation of RMB will help to increase the investment ability of enterprises in foreign markets and promote enterprises to "go out". This will not only reduce the production cost of manufacturers who use higher ratio of imported raw materials, but also accelerate the pace of internationalization of Chinese enterprises.

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Less than P, the amount of local currency required to repay debt service will be reduced correspondingly, to a certain extent, to reduce the burden of external debt.

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The appreciation of RMB P will help Chinese citizens study abroad, and more families will send their children to study abroad at their own expense.

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< p > increasing the attractiveness of China's currency is conducive to the promotion of China's economic status in the world economy.

The proportion of China's GDP in the world economy (calculated in US dollars) was 2.5% in 1980, 1.8% in 1990 and 3.4% in 1998.

The reason is that the RMB depreciated sharply against the US dollar in 1980-1994 years.

If RMB appreciates, China's GDP will surpass Germany and France and become the third largest economic power in the world.

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< p > however, the impact of RMB appreciation on China's economy will mainly be reflected in the negative impact.

As China's current "double surplus" is unstable, the space for foreign exchange reserves to continue to grow is limited, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate lacks sustained internal motivation.

If the renminbi appreciates, it will affect China's foreign trade, attracting foreign investment, domestic employment, price level and the steady development of financial reform, which will affect the comprehensive competitiveness of many industries in China.

In particular, under the unfavorable domestic economic conditions such as the widened fiscal deficit, the limited monetary policy adjustment and the emergence of the real estate bubble, the appreciation of the renminbi will have a very negative negative impact on China's long-term and stable economic growth.

Professor Robert Mon Dale briefly and comprehensively summarized the six major impacts of RMB appreciation on China's economy: first, it will bring great harm to China's exports, and at the same time, it will bring greater pressure to China's deflation; lead to a decline in China's attractiveness to foreign investment, reduce foreign direct investment in China; reduce the profit margins of Chinese enterprises and increase employment pressure; fiscal deficits and bank bad debts may increase as a result of the appreciation of the renminbi, thereby affecting the stability of China's monetary policy.

The concrete analysis is as follows: < /p >

< p > export growth will be restricted.

Over the past ten years, especially in recent years, China's exports have not only maintained a relatively fast growth, but also the proportion of GDP equivalent to about 20%, which has become an important factor in stimulating China's rapid economic growth.

It is of great significance for China's economic stability and rapid development to continue to maintain rapid export growth in the future.

If the renminbi appreciates, the exporters' production costs and labor costs will increase correspondingly.

In the case of constant international market prices, the decline in export profits will seriously affect the enthusiasm of exporters. On the other hand, if exporters raise their prices to maintain certain profits, they will weaken the international competitiveness of export products, which is not conducive to the continuous expansion of exports and the improvement of the share of products in the international market. Especially at present, China is mainly exported to manufacturing products which are very easy to replace. Once exports are blocked, it is very easy to pfer manufacturing to foreign countries, thus losing the superiority of China as a developing country with low labor costs.

Due to the low product quality and low added value of labor-intensive enterprises as the dominant industries in China, the appreciation of the renminbi will hurt the competitiveness of China's large quantities of labor-intensive export products in the international market. Meanwhile, new protectionism in the field of international trade has been rising. Some developed countries have imposed various non-tariff barriers such as environmental standards, quality standards, technology and health standards to restrict imports, and abuse anti-dumping measures to protect their domestic market. Labor intensive export products in China are easily subject to anti-dumping measures, and export situation is not optimistic.

After China's accession to the WTO, with the further integration of China and the world market, imports will continue to rise and the rate of growth will accelerate. Therefore, the trade surplus will gradually shrink or even reverse in the next few years.

If the renminbi is forced to appreciate, it will worsen the current situation.

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< p > is not conducive to attracting foreign investment and upgrading processing trade.

Since the mid 90s of last century, China has attracted rapid growth in attracting foreign direct investment, and has been growing more vigorously in the past two years.

The growth rate in 2001 was 15.2%, an increase of 12.5% in 2002 and an increase of 34.3% in the first half of this year.

Foreign direct investment has become an important force to promote China's economic development.

If the renminbi appreciates, it will not only directly increase the cost of foreign investment, build and purchase equipment in China, but also increase the labor cost of foreign investors in China, which will affect China's further attraction of foreign capital.

Secondly, the operation of foreign enterprises in China has gradually entered a mature stage of development, and the demand for foreign capital profits has also increased year by year. The appreciation of the renminbi will increase the foreign exchange earnings of its profits, and may thus increase the scale of capital outflow and pressure on the balance of payments.

This will affect the scale of investment and profit reinvestment and localization process of foreign investment enterprises, which is not conducive to the sustainable development and upgrading of China's processing trade industry.

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< p > is not conducive to relieving deflation in China.

Since 1997, China's consumer price index has risen by 1% to 1.5% a year, and has been dangerously close to deflation.

China's current deflation mainly comes from the labor market: because of the rapid growth of effective labor force and the gradual improvement of the quality, the rapid economic growth is not enough to offset this pressure, so wage growth is slow, causing deflation.

If the renminbi appreciates, the economic growth will be slower. The labour market will be aggravated by oversupply, wages will not rise and deflation will become more serious.

In addition, deflation has increased the purchasing level of money, increased people's propensity to save, and reduced consumption and investment, which will further shrink the effective demand.

At the same time, the continued fall in prices caused by deflation will raise the level of real interest rates, and increase the cost of production and investment, forcing enterprises to reduce investment demand and reduce output, resulting in a decline in profit levels.

This will affect the effectiveness of China's policy of nurturing and stimulating domestic demand, which may increase the difficulty of making profits and deteriorate bad loans. As Japan has gone through, the good prospects of China's economy will be damaged.

Moreover, deflation develops to a certain extent, which may lead to financial crisis, foreign exchange crisis and currency crisis, and may further turn into hyperinflation. Eventually, the RMB will depreciate greatly.

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< p > is not conducive to easing domestic employment pressure.

There are nearly 8 million registered unemployed people in China's urban areas this year. In addition, about 250 million of the rural low skilled labor force also need to find jobs. The employment situation in China is quite grim.

At present, the foreign trade and economic cooperation industry provides more than 70 million jobs, and many new job opportunities are also provided by domestic export enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises.

The impact of RMB appreciation on the export industry and foreign direct investment will eventually be reflected in employment, which is bound to have a certain impact on the improvement of the current employment environment.

In addition, the rise in the RMB exchange rate will also lead to an increase in the prices of China's non tradable products, such as land, labor and other production factors, thereby weakening domestic demand and thus bringing a serious negative impact on the employment market.

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< p > is not conducive to the effective implementation of monetary policy.

In view of the pressure of appreciation of the RMB, to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, the central bank must purchase large quantities of foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market, thus increasing the base money in the form of foreign exchange.

The additional money will mainly flow into the hands of foreign exchange institutions and individuals. Their willingness and direction of investment may be biased against the demand for funds for economic development, which may lead to a large number of funds without investment intention or no willingness to invest in production, while some private investors with projects and investment aspirations lack financial support.

As a result, money supply will continue to grow, but the difference in supply structure will lead to inefficient use of funds, which will affect the intensity of monetary policy.

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< p > affects the balance of international payments and the stability of financial markets.

Because China's financial supervision system is not perfect, the development of financial market is lagging behind. Under the influence of the market expectation of RMB appreciation, the international speculative capital will enter China through various channels.

If the renminbi appreciates, it will make the arbitrage of these speculative capital possible, and will lead to the continued entry of speculative capital of international arbitrage and new pressure on the appreciation of RMB.

This part of speculative capital is not likely to be invested in industry, but in the financial securities market with easy liquidity and high liquidity.

Under such circumstances, a large number of short-term capital flows into the securities market through various channels will become a potential factor of financial market turbulence, which will easily lead to currency and financial crisis, which will adversely affect the sustained and healthy development of China's economy.

In addition, the internal incentive and risk control mechanisms of various financial institutions in China are seriously missing. If we want to liberalize the RMB exchange rate and implement the floating exchange rate system, which is mainly determined by market supply and demand, financial institutions will not be able to bear the risk of exchange rate and can not afford the impact of the free floating of the RMB exchange rate.

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< p > the impact of RMB appreciation on the world economy < /p >

P > China's economic and trade ties with the rest of the world are increasingly close. Today, the appreciation of the RMB is not only harmful to China's economic development, but also to the United States, Japan and even the world economy. The stability of the RMB exchange rate will be conducive to the further development of China's economy and the recovery of the world economy.

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< p > RMB appreciation can not fundamentally improve the trade situation and economic situation of the United States and Japan. < /p >

< p > some Japanese scholars have the highest voice on the appreciation of the renminbi. Their intention is to improve Japan's trade situation through the relative depreciation of the Japanese yen, thereby expanding exports to drive the recovery of Japan's economy.

But we should see that although Japan is China's largest trading partner, Japan has not seen a large deficit in China's trade, and Chinese products have not posed a threat to Japan's trade.

Japan's long-term economic depression has its underlying causes. It is the result of a combination of industrial restructuring, slow growth in labour productivity, deflation and bad debts of banks. It can not be solved simply by exports.

Besides, Japanese manufacturing industry is expensive and competitive.

Forcing the appreciation of the renminbi will not change the phenomenon of Industrial Hollowing due to the pfer of manufacturing to overseas.

Japan's high labor cost is no longer suitable for the traditional manufacturing industry that is mature in technology and labor cost plays a decisive role in Japan.

If RMB appreciates, China's production costs will rise as a result of exchange rate changes. These industries will continue to pfer to other developing countries, such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.

Similarly, if the renminbi appreciates, it will not increase the comparative advantage of the labor intensive industries such as a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/", "shoes /a", "a" target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/", "clothes" and "toys" and so on.

The weakness of the US economy stems from the adjustment of the high tech industry after the bubble burst, rather than the deterioration of the trade situation.

The world economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund pointed out that China's overall trade share is still very low, which will not lead to the general deflation of trading partners.

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< p > further, the appreciation of RMB may have a negative impact on the economic growth of the United States and Japan.

Because China's exports are mostly necessities of life, inexpensive and inexpensive, it has met the basic needs of the residents in the economic depression, raised the living standard and expanded consumption.

If the appreciation of the renminbi, the price of export products will be raised, resulting in a decline in the welfare level of foreign consumers. This will only make them further reduce their expenditure, and the result will inevitably be to curb demand and fight consumption, which is not conducive to the economic recovery and growth of the United States and Japan.

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< p > 2, < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > RMB appreciation /a > is not conducive to the world trade economy, especially the stable growth of Asian economy < /p >

Known as P, China has a unique position in the international supply chain. It is becoming the largest market for high-tech products spare parts in Korea, Singapore and Japan. These spare parts are exported to the US and global markets in the name of Chinese origin after being assembled in China.

Stephen Hroch believes that breaking the link between the RMB and the US dollar will destroy the necessary supply chain of the new production mode of globalization, and it will have a serious negative impact on the Japanese, American and European enterprises taking the lead in China.

The rapid growth of China's economy has absorbed a large number of auto parts, computer chips and machinery equipment all over the world, and the appreciation of the renminbi will lead to a decline in China's exports, thereby restraining China's import demand for raw materials and machinery and equipment, and further slowing the growth of China's demand, which is not conducive to the growth of world trade, thereby affecting the global economy.

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In general, Asian countries' exports have been increasing synchronously with China's exports in recent years. China's imports from East Asia (including Hongkong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand) increased from 6.2% in 1980 to 40.9% in 2001.

These countries and regions' trade surpluses to China are increasingly becoming the driving force of their economic growth.

China is playing an important role as an economic stabilizer in the increasingly integrated East Asia region.

During the devaluation of the US dollar, the currencies of Asian countries remained relatively stable, thus maintaining stable foreign trade.

If the renminbi appreciates, it may break the stability of Asian currencies and affect the pattern of Asian economic growth.

South Korea has made it clear that it does not support the appreciation of the renminbi in order to avoid damaging the country's exports.

Kamihara E, the former Japanese finance ministry deputy, who is known as "Mr. yen" by the market, has also pointed out that the appreciation of the renminbi will cause instability in China's economy and threaten the economic growth in the Asian region. China's economic strength is an opportunity rather than a threat to Asian countries. With close cooperation and joint efforts with China, Asian countries will be able to get their benefits from China's huge market.

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