Central Banks Focus On Capital Interest Rates And Flexible Mobility Management

< p > < strong > closely stare at capital interest rate, flexible mobility management < /strong > < /p >

In late October, under the combined effect of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Finance > /a > payment and the end of the month, the seven day repurchase rate of banks rose to over 5%, while the 14 day repo rate rose to 6.6% at the same time, all of which reached the highest level since the end of 6.

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Under this background, the central bank unexpectedly restarted the reverse repurchase operation which had been suspended for three times on Tuesday, P.

Market participants believe that the move is intended to ease the tension in the money market at the end of the month and stabilize institutions' expectations in order to restore the relative balance between supply and demand.

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< p > "open market operation is the lack of water, water discharge, more water, stop and stop, need not release water, the central bank will have a good grasp," a trader in North China bank said.

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< p > Yang Hao thinks that the main concern for the operation of the central bank is enough. That is the market capital interest rate. The central bank's fine-tuning is the control of the interest rate range. If the seven day interest rate is above 4.5%, the reverse repo will be put in place. 4%, less or less suspension will be fine. "Fine-tuning is not a signal for the tightening of monetary policy."

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< p > he also pointed out that in fact, the whole banking system is not lack of liquidity. From the perspective of the amount of reverse repurchase, the absolute amount of money invested is not large. Compared with the net weekly launch in 7 and August, the volume of October has narrowed substantially. After 6 months of shortage, the significance of the reverse repurchase operation is to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive panic.

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< p > this year, the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "central bank" /a "open market operation has been twists and turns.

At the beginning of the year, it started with reverse repurchase, then stopped and turned to the right place, and the central bank ticket was reissued in May.

After the "shortage of money" in June, the central bank restarted the reverse repurchase at the end of 7, and was followed by several three years' Renewal of the central bank's votes.

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< p > the central bank recently explained the application of monetary policy tools in the near future.

The central bank said that through long-term issuance of three year central bank votes to freeze long-term liquidity, through the standing loan convenience and open market reverse repurchase to provide the necessary short-term liquidity support, the combination of the two operations will not only help maintain the level of liquidity in the future under the uncertain balance of payments situation, but also help maintain the stability of the money market.

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< p > < strong > monetary policy is stable or tight. < /strong > < /p >

< p > China's central bank's latest a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > currency < /a > policy implementation report conveys a simple and clear idea: to maintain steady growth, we can only maintain a neutral monetary policy, and we must maintain a tight monetary environment if we want to go to capacity.

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< p > "to the end of the year, the central bank's monetary policy is slightly tighter than the three quarter, mainly due to the impact of CPI (the consumer price index) and the total amount of social financing beyond expectations," Yang Hao predicted.

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Li Keqiang, Prime Minister of China, also pointed out in his speech on the economic situation that in terms of money, the balance of China's broad money supply M2 exceeded 100 trillion yuan at the end of 3, which is two times that of GDP. P

In other words, there is a lot of money in the pool. If we send more tickets, it may lead to inflation.

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< p > a bank trader in Beijing also believes that at present, the central bank's target of controlling M2 growth at 13% this year is very difficult to achieve, and CPI also has the potential to rebound. "What the central bank recently said and done is releasing a cautious signal. It is only the last time that the reverse repurchase has been done, and we have some misreading, which is just brilliant to the sunshine."

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< p > the predicted median results of Reuters comprehensive 21 institutions show that China's inflation in October is expected to increase under the driving of food prices. The survey results show that the October CPI, which is expected to be released on Saturday (9), is expected to rise 3.3% over the same period last year, rebounding from last month.

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< p > "why does the central bank buy a small amount of reverse repo?" but it can lead to a rapid fall in interest rate in the money market. This also reflects that more funds are actually not in the interbank, but to buy non standard assets, "Yang Hao said.

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< p > "steady growth is almost the same, then the structure should be adjusted."

An analyst at a bank in Shanghai said, "how to adjust the structure of the financial system is to drop the mismatched leverage and put the money in the place where it should be invested."

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< p > one of the objectives of PBC's recent policy operation is to control non standardized financing such as peers.

According to the four sources, the central bank officials at the open market level dealers conference said they still advised institutions to moderate leverage, not too radical, so as not to be hit in the face of tight funds.

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< p > Chen Long believes that monetary policy is tightening. On the one hand, the external liquidity tends to be loose in the future, and the central bank needs to hedge. On the other hand, the current money supply is too much to achieve the goal of deleveraging and upward pressure on inflation, and the central bank needs to tighten up.

At the same time, maintaining a neutral state is conducive to financial reform and risk prevention.

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< p > "reverse buy back operation may be gradually withdrawn, and the probability of repurchase is already on the horizon," he said.

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