QE Quit IPO Restart, Gem A Shares Fell Below The Annual Line

"The recent decline is the cause of capital. The liquidity tension is normal at the end of each year. QE reduction has become a catalyst. I think it will be better to enter next January." Lu Wei, general manager of Shenzhen Mingyuan investment consultant Co., Ltd., said yesterday in an interview with reporters.

　 QE exits superimposed IPO restart

On the Federal Open Market Committee, which was just concluded in December. The Federal Reserve Announcing that the QE will be cut from January next year will cause panic in the market and the A share market is also a big shock.

Chen Li, the chief securities strategist of the deputy director of UBS Securities Research Department, predicts that the actual impact of QE's withdrawal on China's liquidity is not large. However, due to the superposition of A shares or a more intense liquidity environment next year, the exit of QE may cause psychological pressure on investors, which will have a slight negative impact on the stock market.

The capital side at the end of the year is an important factor in the market's concern. Lu Wei believes that the market will get better in January next year, and the end of December will be a good opportunity to raise positions.

Lu Wei, who is currently in the position of 3~4, told reporters: "I am already at the beginning. Scale in My goal is to reach 60% when I enter the first month.

He believes that there will not be many negative things in the first quarter and the two quarter of next year. Although the blue chip stocks and Zhou Qigu are not very optimistic, the decline of bank shares is somewhat overdone. Once the blue chip stocks stop falling, the market will be hard to fall again. The fund will be abundant in the first quarter, whether it is the policy side or the capital side.

But Tang Kai, director of Cci Capital Ltd investment in Tianjin, was not so optimistic. He chose a short position.

He believes that this adjustment is mainly IPO The negative impact on the market. "Gem, small and medium-sized boards add up to less than 1000 stocks, while IPO is queuing up with about 600 stocks, and the pressure is very large."

"Stocks in Shenzhen are large and stocks in Shanghai are small. The stock market value of Shanghai stock market can not participate in the issue of new shares in Shenzhen. This will definitely sell the large cap stocks in Shanghai stock market. In addition, the price of new shares will be much lower than that of the two tier market, and the purchase of new shares is very profitable. I'm going to fight new shares. " He said.

Tang Kai believes the market may fall back to the 1849 point ~2000 point for two bottomed spots.

　　 Gem callback risk increased

Chen Li is not optimistic about the growth enterprise market. He thinks that due to the restart of IPO in the near future, it may temporarily stimulate the enthusiasm of the gem, but the risk of the GEM may happen in spring and summer next year.

"During the first two rounds of QE exit, there were significant callbacks in gem, such as 3 months after QE1 withdrew and 3 months before QE2 withdrew (QE was withdrawn). In August of this year, QE The strengthening of exit expectations has led to a sharp fall in the stock market and foreign exchange market in Southeast Asia. We believe that the current market expectations for gem growth in 2013 and 2014 will be 41% and 44% higher than expected. With the continuing tension in the mobile environment and the reduction of earnings expectations, the risk of callbacks in gem will increase. Chen Li said.

Tang Kai believes that when the funds are not tight every January, the hot spots at that time tend to be the hot spots of the whole year. He chose to buy new shares, the main target is technology stocks. "When the index has a definite positive line, if the market turns warmer, I will also choose to buy some securities and insurance financial stocks." He said.

Lu Wei told reporters that he was preparing to layout some chemical companies and consumer company.

He believes that cyclical stocks such as real estate and banks will not have the trend of opportunity. Although the banks have dropped enough, the systemic risk has been released a lot, but next year more likely to occur is a pulse rebound. For many stocks, next year is only a broad concussion, and there will be no trend of increase. We prefer to get some stocks that are not valued very much, the future 1~2 is more flexible and the margin of safety is lower.

Although the chemical industry gives the concept of traditional industries, the valuation is not high, but now there is a change. With the increasing pressure on environmental protection, some fine industries are facing the industry shuffling, the dominant enterprises will encounter opportunities, and the gross profit margins and profit margins will increase. When disclosing the reports, they will tend to exceed the market expectations, and the stock price is facing double shocks, which may increase significantly. Such as fine chemicals, pesticides and other stocks.

Besides, Lu Wei also favors consumer goods such as the dairy industry. The competition pattern of the industry is determined. With the increase in the price of high value-added products, the profit margin will increase. The growth of low and middle income in urbanization will increase the consumption of dairy products. "Now the employment pressure of college students is very great, the wage increase is not big, and the manufacturing industry, the middle and low end peasant workers' consumption has increased considerably." He said.