Foreign Trade Opened Up In 2014.

< p > Customs General Administration: in January, China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > Import and export < /a > total value of 382 billion 400 million US dollars, an increase of 10.3%.

Among them, exports amounted to 207 billion 130 million US dollars, an increase of 10.6%; imports of US $175 billion 270 million, an increase of 10%; trade surplus of US $31 billion 860 million, and expansion of 14%.

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< p > comment: during the same period last year, the hot money in the high base of large scale inflow of foreign trade channels, the foreign trade data in January were significantly better than expected in the market.

Does the "open door" foreign trade data also mean that this year's foreign trade situation may be significantly better than market expectations? We believe that the signs of enhanced economic recovery in developed countries are more obvious. This year's foreign trade situation is much more likely than last year. But we should not underestimate the severe situation of foreign trade this year on the basis of the January foreign trade data.

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< p > first, the export growth rate in January was contrary to the new PMI export orders of China mining and HSBC manufacturing industry, and the positive economic signals released from the foreign trade data were also contrary to the conclusion that the economy continued to warm and slow down with the high frequency data closely related to the industrial economy such as electricity generation, crude steel output and so on.

In addition, BDI also showed a clear downward trend in January. The global a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > trade < /a > boom degree also weakened, and also compared with our January expected foreign trade data.

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< p > secondly, the global economic environment still has great uncertainty, especially in the era of ultra loose monetary policy in developed countries. The gradual easing of the monetary policy environment has gradually recovered the negative impact on emerging market countries (capital flight and currency derogation), and the proportion of emerging market countries in China's exports has increased significantly compared with the past. (the proportion of exports to four other BRICs countries rose from 4.5% in 2006 to 6.9% in 2013, and the proportion of exports to ASEAN countries rose from 7.4% in 2006 to 11.1% in 2013).

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< p > in addition, the import and export growth data of a single month fluctuate greatly, which will be affected by many factors such as trade policy, trade friction, holiday effect, order cycle and confirmation of statistical time, which will cause greater noise interference. Therefore, it is not rigorous enough to judge only one month data, especially when contrary to other data.

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< p > but on the data of import and export in January: < /p >

The export of P is mainly due to better exports to developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan and other neighboring countries such as ASEAN. Besides, exports to emerging markets such as Brazil and India also perform well. The adverse effects of emerging market currency turbulence on China's foreign trade have not yet been reflected.

Among the main export commodities, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing "less than" labor intensive goods export growth contributed greatly.

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< p > imports, iron ore, steel, copper and crude oil and other industries closely related to the industrial import growth has also steadily increased.

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< p > trade surplus is expected to exceed a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > /a > appreciation pressure in the short term. From the perspective of capital flow, compared with other emerging market countries, China's current negative impact of the Fed's withdrawal from QE is much smaller.

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