Analysis Of Import And Export Trends In 2009

Through comprehensive analysis, it is estimated that China's total import and export volume will reach US $2 trillion and 600 billion in 2008, an increase of about 20% over the same period last year. In 2009, uncertainties and unstable factors will continue to increase. Uncertainties in the international economic situation will increase, and the impact on China's import and export will be further deepened. But opportunities are still greater than challenges. Owing to the slowdown of the world economy, the worsening of the financial crisis in the United States, the slowdown in the domestic economy, the appreciation of the renminbi, the decline in the investment rate of major industries, and the unfavorable factors of international trade protectionism, the export growth rate of our country has dropped markedly since the beginning of this year. In the past 10 months, China's import and export situation is generally good, but the global financial market turmoil is hard to recover in the short term, and the demand for the international market will continue to weaken. Point of view: from the current economic situation, due to the constraints of multiple factors, China's economic development is facing a very severe international economic environment. External demand, which has played an important role in economic development, has slowed down, weakened support and reduced contribution rate. Viewpoint two: there is a close relationship between China's export growth and world economic growth. The world bank predicts that the world economic growth rate will be 2.7% and 2.5% in the next two years, especially in the developed countries led by the United States. According to the relevant estimates, the US GDP growth rate dropped by 1 percentage points, the growth rate of China's exports will decline by 4.75 percentage points, the EU's economic growth rate dropped by 1 percentage points, the electronic products exported to the EU will drop by 15/1000, and the textile and garment industry will drop by 5/1000. A kind of Viewpoint three: econometric analysis shows that in the long run, there is only a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between investment and exports and China's economic growth. Investment and exports have a positive effect on economic growth, export elasticity to China's economic growth is larger, exports increase by one percentage point, economic growth by 0.8150 percentage points, domestic investment increases by one percentage point, and economic growth by 0. .4994 percentage points. This fully shows that China's economic growth has obvious characteristics of "capital expansion" and "export oriented". Viewpoint four: Recently, in order to prevent the domestic economic downturn, China has introduced many measures to stimulate exports and encourage imports. For example, the export rebate rate was raised 3 times in August, early November and early December. The export tariffs of some commodities will also be cut down in early December. China's export enterprises, which are in financial "cold winter", are generally processing enterprises. How to survive the long and severe winter is a big challenge. The enterprise itself should strengthen its own management, strengthen innovation, change product structure, practice hard work, and change the marketing strategy according to the changes in the international market, and change the marketing target. According to customs statistics, foreign trade import and export volume increased by 24.4% over the same period in 1-10. Exports increased by 21.9%, down 4.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and imports increased by 27.6%, 7.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The export growth rate is lower than the import growth rate by 5.7 percentage points, the gap narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared with 1-9 months. The trade surplus reached 216 billion US dollars in the 1-10 months, an increase of 1.3%. 1. Net export has a weak effect on the economy. Exports are an important driving force for China's economic growth. According to the accounting data of the National Bureau of statistics, exports accounted for 37% of GDP in 2007. The contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to GDP growth was 21.5%, and the growth of GDP was 2.6 percentage points. In the first half of this year, the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to economic growth was 4.9%, down 16.8 percentage points from the same period last year, pushing the growth of the economy by only 0.5 percentage points, 2 and exports still declining, and the export of primary products and some resource goods changed greatly. Export trade continued to show a downward trend in October, compared with the same month last year, exports increased by 19.2%, down 3.1 percentage points. The ratio fell by 2.3 percentage points, less than 3.4 percentage points of imports. The biggest decline is still processing trade, which grew by 8.5% in the month and 12.7 percentage points down. 3, import trade has dropped, and some commodity imports have come down in volume and price. In October, import trade increased by 15.6% over the same period last year, not only lower than the same month last year's growth rate of 9.9 percentage points, but also lower than the growth rate of 5.7 percentage points last month, the lowest growth rate this year. Export growth rate is 3.6 percentage points higher than that of import, and the gap is 3.4 percentage points larger than that of last month. In the same month, the foreign trade surplus reached US $35 billion 240 million, an increase of 29.8%. In the import trade, the fastest fall was the processing trade, which grew by only 1.9% in the month, down 16.6 percentage points compared with the same month last year, and the general trade increased by 30.1%, down 7.1 percentage points. 4. The growth of imports and exports of traditional commodities slowed down. First, exports of labour intensive products such as clothing, toys and plastic products have slowed down. Judging from the situation of Canton Fair this fall, the third phase of textile and clothing products, which are mainly labor-intensive products, have been greatly reduced. Next year, the export situation is not optimistic. Two, imports of textile products, such as textile raw materials, paper and paperboard, billets and rough forgings, continue to decrease. Three, the growth of import and export of electromechanical products and high-tech products is stable. 5, the trade surplus has reached a record high in a single month, and the cumulative trade surplus has been decreasing. Since July, the monthly trade surplus has increased continuously, increasing year by year. In October, the trade surplus was US $35 billion 240 million, an increase of US $8 billion 100 million over the same period last year, a record high, an increase of 29.8% over the same period last year, which is 7.6 percentage points higher than that in September. At the same time, the cumulative foreign trade surplus decreased year by year, and the cumulative surplus in October decreased. In the 1-10 month, the surplus of foreign trade totaled US $215 billion 990 million, an increase of US $2 billion 740 million over the same period last year, an increase of 1.3%, compared with a decrease of 2.7% in 1-9 months. 6. Bilateral trade with emerging market countries has increased rapidly. In bilateral trade with my major trading partners, bilateral trade growth has slowed down, and bilateral trade with India has grown rapidly. Bilateral trade between China and emerging market countries has increased rapidly. Bilateral trade with emerging markets such as India, Brazil and Argentina has increased rapidly, partly filling the space left by the slowing demand of developed economies. In particular, bilateral trade with India has grown rapidly.