This Expansion Will Not Affect The Direction Of RMB Exchange Rate Change.

< p > the central bank can still guide the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp "> market < /a > by adjusting the middle price, which may further deepen the situation of" wide funds and tight deposits ".

< p > CICC issued a report that the central bank once again expanded the one-day fluctuation rate of the spot exchange rate of RMB, which would not have any effect on the direction and trend of the RMB's trend.

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< p > report analysis indicates that first, the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > the central bank "/a" can still guide the market expectation through the adjustment of the intermediate price, that is, the directional change of the middle price has greater significance for the market.

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< p > at the same time, from the expansion of the fluctuation interval to 1% in April 2012, the expectation of RMB rise and fall is expected to be more affected by China's economic data in the short and medium term, as well as the impact of China's monetary policy and foreign monetary policy on domestic and foreign interest rates.

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< p > for example, there is a strong correlation between the kinetic index of PMI and the increment of foreign exchange occupation, that is, when the economy is bad, the expectation of RMB depreciation is enhanced, and foreign exchange holdings are reduced.

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"P" again, after years of continuous appreciation of the RMB, especially the appreciation of a basket of currencies, in addition to the increase in domestic labor costs and the gradual decline of the future population dividend, the market has gradually increased the exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate to the equilibrium point.

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< p > "the potential growth rate of China's economy has gradually declined, and the market's expectation of continued appreciation of the renminbi has not been as strong as before."

CICC reports.

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< p > the report holds that the expansion of the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB > /a > intra day range increases the difficulty of arbitrage of hot money, which will lead to a partial decline in arbitrage demand.

Since last year, the safe and customs have been cracking down on false trade, and hot money has been reduced through trade in special regulatory zones.

Under ordinary trade, recent copper financing and iron ore financing have also been greatly affected by tightening capital and falling prices.

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With the expansion of the fluctuation range of the exchange rate and the uncertainty of the RMB's trend in the short and medium term, the report says that arbitrage funds face greater volatility exchange rate exposure and arbitrage difficulty increases. If the exchange rate risk is locked, the arbitrage profit will also decrease. P

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< p > at the same time, CICC believes that in addition to the weakening of arbitrage demand, there will be a cautious exchange of funds in the real trade background. It may not be urgent to settle foreign exchange, leading to a significant decrease in foreign exchange holdings in the future.

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< p > CICC predicts that the current economic environment is quite similar to that in April 2012, which is relatively poor.

After the expansion of exchange rate volatility in April 2012, foreign exchange holdings continued to decrease. This year's situation may be similar, and face greater challenges than before. That is, the overseas developed economies began to gradually withdraw from the easing policy.

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< p > the report also suggests that the decrease in foreign exchange will result in a decrease of "a" href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Bank < /a > exogenous deposits, which will have a negative impact on the overstock rate and the formation of deposits.

The expansion of this day's range of volatility may further deepen the situation of "wide funds and tight deposits", which means that the capital looks very loose, but it is not easy to expand the demand for loans and bonds for banks.

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