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Don'T Ask Me Which Stocks To Buy.

2014/3/21 13:21:00 73

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why is it that buying a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > stock < /a > is similar to that of blind people? Why does historical stock price have little reference meaning? Why is a master not reliable? Why is news not credible? Why not recommend to you which stock? This article is written to friends who have just touched the stock market.

there are always friends who want me to recommend several stocks. I will first ask them which industry they are interested in and which companies they are familiar with.

Then ask them to study the management, culture, business, prospects and financial situation of the company.

Friends usually say, so wordy, you tell me directly which is not to buy? Before answering which stock they buy, I have to explain the following questions first.

1. Is it not a low point to buy stocks and sell high points?

Yes, no matter whether it is called stocks or investment, it is a simple thing to buy and sell at a low price (if you don't consider short selling), and even a fool can understand the truth. What else is there to study?

the question is, how do you know when it is low and when is the high point?

, there are numerous stock commentators who create various theories and use strange methods to prove the position of the stock price and predict the future.

Now let's take a look at what the stock price means.

two, the unit price of stocks is meaningful?

potatoes are listed, the issue price is $29, and Youku's issue price is only $12.8.

Now that the price of the two companies is 20 yuan, why is it that the treatment of potatoes is much worse than that of Youku? Some people even say that potatoes are cheaper than Youku. Others say that Google's stock, hundreds of dollars, is too expensive to buy.

What does the unit price mean?

assuming that Zhang three and Li Si made a big cake separately and cut them into many small pieces for sale.

Zhang San sells for 5 yuan and Li Si 1 yuan.

Then, can we say that Zhang San's cake sells much more than Li Sigui? The answer is not necessarily.

Because Zhang three's cake may be the size of a brick, Li Si's match box, and there may also be material difference.

the entire listed company is like a big cake, which can theoretically be cut indefinitely.

A cake worth 100 million yuan is divided into 10 billion equal parts, each only needs 1 cents; if it is divided into 1 million parts, it needs 100 yuan for each.

No matter how it is divided, there is no effect on the total price of the cake.

If you invest 10 thousand yuan to buy, according to the previous one, you can buy 1 million copies; the latter you can only buy 100 copies, but the two are actually equal.

, therefore, it is meaningless to talk about the unit price of stocks in isolation, unless the unit price is too high for you to buy, or the risk of delisting is low.

The important thing is how big the cake is and how much quality it represents.

After understanding the meaning of stock price, the following question about historical stock price is easy to understand.

three, is the historical stock price map meaningful?

this stock has been crossed for a long time. Is it possible to buy it?

this company used to have the highest share price to 100, and now it drops to 10 yuan, which is the lowest in history. Is it possible to copy the bottom?

we take the cake shop which is familiar with teachers' milk as an example.

there is a cake shop downstairs. Now you are invited to join the stock market, which is 1 yuan.

Shopkeepers provide reliable proof that over the past 1 years, some people have bought at a price of more than 1 yuan, which has been crossed for quite a long time. In the past, some people have gone through 5 yuan, and now the price is the lowest in history.

will you buy it? You will first understand what the concept of 1 shares is, that is, how many shares there are in the whole store.

Then, investigate the reputation of the store, taste the taste, understand the surrounding environment, observe the crowd, daily traffic, calculate raw materials, workers' wages, shop rent, water and electricity, industrial and commercial taxes, etc.

It will even find friends who are familiar with the cake industry, and consult the whole situation of the industry.

At P, how much longer do you care about sideways, and the highest and lowest price in the past?

and when you spend 100 thousand yuan to buy X shares of a company.

Do you know what this X share means? What kind of company is behind the stock code? What kind of business is it? How to manage it? How to manage it? What is the quality of the product?

Or is it just the lowest point in recent years? And the graphics are beautiful.

buying shares in the stock market is the same as buying a cake shop downstairs.

The difference may be that the listed stocks are easy to sell, and the shares of cake shops are not easy to pfer.

But it is not easy to sell because it is easy to sell.

What you want is the result of making money, not the process of trading.

generally speaking, there are many factors that affect stock prices. There is no inevitable link between historical stock prices and future stock prices. It is not possible to predict the future with information on how many daily average lines, historical stock prices and low points.

four, how did the master practice?

China, with the largest number of retail investors, should be the largest investor in P.

TV, website and radio are flying everywhere, and there are many folk legends about rising and falling.

It is undeniable that if these masters are often guessed by the results, the industry will be extinct.

Where is the mystery?

P > suppose you let me predict whether it rains tomorrow in Beijing.

First I went to have an early tea, and then I climbed the west mountain, and then came down to pinch my feet, and play a few fighting landlords with my friends, and then read a pile of spells who could not understand it. Finally, it was predicted that Beijing was going to rain tomorrow.

"P > if it rains in Beijing tomorrow, you will believe that I predict it is accurate, is it bound to be associated with drinking early tea, climbing West Mountain, fighting landlords, pinching feet and mantras?

"P", similarly, I still drink tea, climb mountains, and then take the ruler to measure the stock price chart of China Merchants Bank, predict that tomorrow will likely rise.

If you are lucky, do you think that what you did before is related to the accuracy of the prediction?

all the masters who dare to make short-term forecasts of stock prices are basically: probability, fuzzy concepts, psychological effects, plus some information collection and some original theories.

1, probability:

just like Chinese medicine, by judging the sex of the fetus by pulse, the probability that he will be right will reach 50% if the sample is enough.

If a Master goes to the middle school attached to Peking University, Tsinghua middle school and Senior Middle School of the people's Congress, he can tell fortune to see who can enter the University. His accuracy rate may exceed 90%.

These results are no different from those predicted by a master or a cat or dog.

So when you meet a master, you first have to think of whether the probability is at work, or is there any necessary connection between the basis and the result of his prediction.

2, fuzzy concept:

to the master level, it will not be silly to say directly which stock will rise or fall, but it will leave enough room for maneuver in the text.

For example, "tomorrow's attention to deep development, ST northerners, star power, flying music sound, there may be big changes, but pay attention to the position risk", "there may be a callback in the near future, low prices can be appropriately absorbed, high points need to be out, but attention should be paid to controlling positions, reducing risks", "at present, the market is fluctuating, the prospect is not very clear, and proper control of positions..."

Basic and fortune telling master is basically a tone. "Next year is XX. Be careful when you are in trouble.

It may be a little bit retardation, but if you meet with your help, you will be safe. "

The information of all these essential oils is everywhere.

> as I have predicted, Beijing will rain tomorrow, because Beijing is too large and too vague, so even if Haidian District does not go down, nor does it rain in Chaoyang District, there may be a few drops on the side of Miyun reservoir, and you can not say that I am wrong.

3, psychological effect

before that, the master predicted that you should be careful next year. "It may be a little bit retardation, but if you meet with your help, you will be able to be safe." once there is anything unexpected (a year is so long, there is no accident), you will find that the master is really God.

Then, if the accident is unexpected, "fortunately, the master reminds us to be careful and lucky enough to get help from others." if the loss is heavy, we will blame ourselves for not being careful enough, although the master predicted and reminded, or felt that he had not met the noble.

Comparing the predictions of the stock market with the results in the aftermath, it will also be found that the master is waiting for God.

What is more important is that although the masters often predict mistakes, you will soon forget them selectively, and mentally reinforce those who are right to say P.

Just like a lot of people believe that "mention Cao Cao, Cao Cao came to", in fact, you usually mention, think of a lot of people, but when they didn't happen just now, you won't care too much. If the person you meet occasionally appears, you will tend to think that he has something to say about him just now, and believe that the probability of this happening is very high.

this psychological blind area may also affect your decision of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > investment < /a >.

When you only focus on a stock in your own stock, or you have thought about buying without action, but later this stock has gone up a lot, you usually regret it and feel that your previous judgment is right, but you are not determined to buy it.

In fact, many times, just because you just remember what you guessed, and more attention has been paid, may be down.

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4, information collection and originality theory

master can mix meals, of course, as I predict before the weather forecast, what to do tea, mountain climbing, foot washing, there must be some basic information and a simulation theory.

Gurus usually list some macro, industry and even company information.

Some of these information may be valuable, and the relationship with stock prices is not necessarily what the master said.

besides, some masters will also create a set of theories. I have seen a master on TV. According to the graph, the stock is divided into brown bear, grizzly bear, black bear and so on, and then guide you to operate.

We should be very careful with these rivers and lakes.

in short, all the masters can not avoid a paradox: if they are so fierce, why should they earn some hard money by selling their skins? Like those geomantic omen, can they bury their good ancestral graves properly once and for all? "/p >

five, is the message useful?

before that, the master also needs to collect all kinds of information and appear to be a little dry goods.

In daily life, we do encounter all kinds of news.

Are these messages useful?

if it is similar to "the banker has controlled the market, he will go up" and "heavy" insider information, huge amounts of money will be pulled up, "there will be a major reorganization of M & a news release" and so on.

You must firmly believe that you are not rich and expensive, but you are plain looking. If there is any opportunity to make money easily, people will not send it to you.

In particular, what is the so-called insider information, if you even know, what is the inside story?

it is undeniable that some information is very important, whether it is related to macro economy or single company.

The problem is that different people differ greatly in interpreting different kinds of information.

For example, what does Google acquire from Motorola Mobile? What does it mean for Google? If there is no long-term tracking research, this isolated information is hard to judge the future impact of Google.

Unless your father is involved in the acquisition, he will tell you to buy Motorola mobile before the paction is announced.

This is indeed the inside story of a big fortune, but such insider trading is going to jail.

Even if you secretly bought it, you wouldn't dare tell anyone else.

strong > six, what is the basis for buying and selling stocks? /p >

graphics are meaningless, masters are not reliable, and news is not credible. What is the basis of that?

go back to the front cake shop.

Before deciding whether to become a shareholder, besides investigating the reputation of the store, tasting the taste, understanding the surrounding environment, observing the crowd, daily traffic, raw materials, workers' wages, rent, water, electricity, industry and commerce tax, etc., we also need to consider the character, character and regiment culture of the management. We also need to check the assets and estimate the future growth so as to estimate the rate of return on investment and so on.

Then you can assess whether the price of this stock is high or low.

Even in horizontal comparison, is there any investment channel that is higher and safer than this?

P? Do you need to be so cumbersome to buy stocks? Actually, there are shareholders who go to businesses and factories to calculate the number of shipments to estimate the performance.

Of course, these are not the only parts of information, nor are they the only way to collect information.

But the more information you have, the more reliable sources are, and the less you make decisions.

this is valuation, which is the core of investment.

Simply speaking, it is to estimate how much the enterprise is worth and how much it is allocated to each stock.

If the price is far below the value, consider buying; if the price is too high, consider selling it.

What we call a company's stock is cheap and expensive, which is mainly relative to its intrinsic value rather than its unit price, rather than the paction price between the seller and the buyer.

Company Analysis and valuation case reference: old farmer Lu Shu: Village Foundation, entanglement...

seven, can investment make money? /p >

as mentioned before, stock trading must be valued.

Even so, there is no guarantee that you will make money.

For a single operation and in the short term, there is such a possibility: if you buy a half day result or lose money, others will buy it at will.

In addition, even careful and prudent valuation can not completely avoid your loss, but only reduce the probability of disaster.

This is equivalent to a car seat belt. If you tie it up, it will reduce the injury in case of an accident, but it will be very small if a dump truck is flying fast.

in order to further improve the safety factor, in the stock market investment, after the valuation is completed, there will be some discount treatment, so as to prevent some data distortion, incomplete information, consider the lack or unpredictable events, and still can control the loss in a very small enclosure.

For example, after a hard survey and calculation, a stock is estimated to be worth 5 yuan per share, but in order to avoid losses caused by some errors and other uncontrollable factors, you may need to set the target price of the purchase to 3 yuan or even lower.

but you are not smarter than others, nor are you unique.

A good company, whose share price is far below its value, has not been seen by others. Only you notice, there are few such opportunities.

Good companies are usually very expensive.

Most of the time, the market is right.

So you need great patience to wait for the market to panic and make mistakes.

As Buffett said, "I am greedy when others are afraid, and I am afraid when others are greedy."

P, even though some companies, though you have completed the valuation and set the target price, you may not fall to the ideal buying range during your lifetime (or fall, but the precondition of valuation has changed).

eight, is investment long term holding?

investment is not equal to long-term holding. Long term holding is not necessarily investment.

In investment, the occurrence of buying and selling behavior is the change of factors such as valuation, price, opportunity cost and so on, rather than the length of time.

but generally speaking, the value of a business (a large part of the estimate of growth) will not be fully reflected in a short time.

So in fact, investment usually requires longer time.

In this sense, if you extend the time and space of investment, you will find that the significance of a few cents or a few points for a company's share price is very small.

Including the so-called staring plate is a waste of life.

only those who are strong in heart and have the ability of valuation can not be happy or sad when they are in the long and lonely days.

nine, and investment is individual effort.

Company analysis, data survey, product research, reading dull and obscure reports (often hundreds of pages), can really be said to be individual efforts.

Moreover, this manual work is not for a while, but also for a long time.

It is said that Buffett's office does not have any terminal that reads < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp > stock price < /a > only the reports of all houses.

from a fair point of view, this is also reasonable.

If you buy a few stocks blindly and return more often than those who have the right direction, the right way, and the long-term efforts, there will be no diligent people in the world.

For example, the money you pick up on the road is higher than everyone's early discredit to work. It can only be a very casual low probability event.

ten. Is there a god of stock in this world? /p >

if Buffett is a stock god, the average annual return of the stock god is only 20%.

Those who constantly say "double gods" exist? I believe they exist, but only for a short time.

In addition to some people in abnormal society, there are not so many myths of getting rich overnight.

As an ordinary person, you still make a solid profit.

A successful investor is usually an optimistic but skeptical rationalist.

P is still too complicated? It's best to treasure the hard-earned money and keep away from the stock market.

There are too many rat farms in China, so we should try to choose index ETF and enter the market when it is extremely pessimistic.

if you can understand a general idea and are willing to become a coolie for reading a report, buy a few books, such as smart investors, snowball, Buffett href= http://www.91se91.com, a, etc.