US Dollar JPY Rises And Yen Rises Into A Safe Haven For Emerging Markets

Tuesday, March 25th, New York intraday, dollar The Japanese yen fell at a high level, and all gains in the day were now trading near 102.21. Us weak PMI data weighs down the US dollar and boosted the yen. In addition, the tightening of the expected warming of the Fed has also suppressed global risk assets, and also promoted the demand for yen as a safe haven.

The US PMI data is weak, and the US dollar has dropped rapidly against the yen after the US data release. Data released by the US show that in March, the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI was 55.5, the former value was 57.1, and the expected value was 56.

　　 Federal Reserve After the meeting, the US bond yield rose rapidly, supporting the US dollar to go up. MITSUBISHI Tokyo BTMU continued to look after the US dollar to the yen market, which reported that the US dollar was trading against the yen this week, with an expected trading range of 101.30-103.50. The dovish level of the FOMC meeting last week was lower than expected, pushing the US dollar against the yen to the important resistance level from the 55 day moving average.

While Dao Ming securities analyst is cautious about the trend of the yen market outlook, they said that the current position of the exchange rate is more sensitive. If the 103.35/40 is broken, it will further go up. If it falls below 101.21 support, the market outlook will be bearish.

Technically, US dollar. Yen The trend is volatile, and the market outlook needs further guidance. Technical indicators MACD (12, 26, 9) main line and signal line running near zero axis, indicating price trend shocks. The relative strength index RSI is located near the 50 equilibrium position, showing that the price dynamics are balanced. Investors are concerned about the 102.60 day of high resistance, below 102 points of concern.

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Why does the renminbi appreciate abroad? Because China always maintains a favorable balance of foreign trade and exports more than imports all the year round. Take exports to the United States as an example, China's exports of goods to the United States, the United States got Chinese goods, China earned the United States dollar. In accordance with the normal market rule, the RMB will appreciate rapidly and cause import and export balance. In order to maintain more exports without excessive appreciation, it is bound to need extra renminbi to hedge against the US dollar, and the demand for RMB will increase and maintain a long-term appreciation trend.

But in China, Chinese enterprises earn US dollars, but because of China's enforcement of the mandatory foreign exchange settlement system, enterprises can not retain US dollar assets. This means that every dollar a Chinese business receives, the central bank will have to print more than 6 yuan RMB for remittance. That is to say, after the purchase of US dollars by Chinese enterprises, the US dollar, which flows into China, has been left in the Chinese government at a cost of more than RMB issued by the Chinese government, which makes China's economy face inflationary pressure.

Of course, the main reason for the appreciation of the renminbi and its internal depreciation is that the renminbi is not an international currency. The fact that the renminbi is not a freely convertible currency determines that the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is limited to the appreciation of the relative currency, and does not represent the improvement of the RMB's international purchasing power. As the renminbi is not the world currency, while the international raw material price has risen sharply, although the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, we can not purchase goods or capital investment through the direct export of RMB to the international market, or do we need to carry out international trade and investment through US dollars or other convertible currencies. Therefore, its actual purchasing power has not been much improved.