Three Main Lines Of Textile Investment In 2009

Discuss the investment opportunities of textile industry in 2009. in 2008, the textile industry received more attention because the negative impact on this industry was too great. What is the future market prospect of this industry in 2009? And whether there are investment opportunities in this industry and how to find them will be the focus of our discussion. the textile industry will face the market environment in 2009. Before that, I will give you a brief introduction of the market structure. We take clothing and shoes as an example. 45% of the sales revenue is realized through foreign markets. In 2009, according to our judgment of export market, China's textile export will show negative growth for the first time. The judgment on the growth rate of textiles depends mainly on China's import demand. in terms of the import situation of the United States in the first eight months of 2008, the growth rate was - 3.68%. The decline in import growth rate of the United States alone led to the growth rate of China's textile export, which was - 9%. This is the first time that this situation has occurred. In 2009, the European Union's textile export pattern will not continue to be optimistic in China's export market. Judging from the situation of these two markets, the pattern of textiles in 2009 will not be better than that in 2001. Negative growth in 2009 is inevitable. the growth rate of domestic sales is much more optimistic than that of export sales, but the growth rate of clothing consumption will also be affected by the decline of GDP. In this place, in order to find out the relationship between the growth rate of clothing and GDP, we take the United States, South Korea and Hong Kong as samples, and the elasticity of clothing is greater than 1 compared with GDP. When the GDP growth rate is relatively fast, the growth rate of clothing will be faster than that of GDP, but when the growth rate of GDP comes down, the growth rate of clothing will be faster than that of GDP. Taking the growth of per capita clothing consumption from 1996 to 2007 as a sample, we find that the coefficient is 1.5632. At the time of financial crisis, clothing consumption was 63%. in 2008 and 2009, the growth rate of clothing consumption in China was calculated according to the growth rate of per capita and disposable income, as well as the ratio of urbanization. It was 23.2% in 2008 and 17.7% in 2007, and the growth rate remained at 17%. In the pattern of negative re export growth and declining domestic demand growth, what kind of development pattern will garment production enterprises and brand enterprises face? We also made judgments. In 2009, the price and cost of production-oriented enterprises will fall. Because the overall production scale of these products has declined to a certain extent, the demand for its upstream products, such as cotton and polyester, will also slow down, and the prices of these products will also decline. However, due to the production cost, depreciation and labor force have a certain degree of rigidity. If the prices of products and raw materials decrease by the same extent, if there is no national policy support, the gross profit rate of production-oriented enterprises will decline. for the judgment of brand enterprises, we judge that there will be channel expansion and the growth rate of single store will decline in 2009. Some data obtained in October can also prove our view. For example, China's trend, the introspective growth of its single store in October was 0, the decline of consumer confidence index and the decline of disposable income have a certain impact. At present, the mode that domestic brand enterprises mainly rely on franchisees can accelerate their own performance fluctuation. Seven wolf is a franchisee based model. An order meeting will be held in March every year to determine the autumn and winter products of that year. At the end of the order meeting, 70% of the sales revenue of that year can be basically determined. The basis for dealers to make an order decision depends on the market sales situation in 2007, as well as January and February in 2008. We know that the sales in 2007 are very hot, and the sales in January and February of 2008 are also very hot, and the dealers will make more optimistic decisions. This is reflected in the fact that if the downstream consumption demand of dealers slows down in October and November, such products are reflected in a certain amount of inventory for franchisees. For orders in 2009 will have a certain adverse impact. Just now we talked about the development pattern of the whole industry. Does it mean that there will be no investment opportunities in the textile industry? In fact, there are still some stocks worthy of our expectation. I will look for investment targets from three main lines. the first main line: performance differences in adversity directly reflect the competitiveness of enterprises. We all know that listed companies can basically represent some advantageous enterprises in the whole industry. But even for such advantageous enterprises, let's take a look at the performance of the first three quarters. In the case of the decline in the demand of the whole international market, the performance of many enterprises has shown negative growth. For example, like some of the original textile industry stars, black peony has declined. Operating profit did not decline Zhonghe, Weixing shares. What unique advantages do these enterprises have? What are the growth drivers in 2009? about Weixing shares: This is a button production enterprise, which is the largest with a market share of 17%. Weixing is able to deliver the products in time according to the requirements of the downstream enterprises. The second big advantage is innovation. Weixing also has a very big advantage in sales personnel. After the training of the Department, the sales staff directly enter into some big customers, such as the seven wolves, to provide them with perfect service. It is relying on these advantages that Weixing has established its own perfect marketing system. Since the button market share is 17%, what kind of market share is possible? Buttons can still achieve the same growth rate as the industry in the future, or even exceed the growth rate of the whole industry. Another is that Weixing developed their zippers and crystal buttons based on their original button advantages and original customers. We have a simple analysis of the capacity of Lutai and Maotai. The production capacity of Lutai is far more than that of Youngor, Yida and Tiange. Among them, the technical advantage of Yaru Tagore is polyester cotton shirt. Lutai didn't make this product many years ago. Lutai also has a cost advantage. It is a yarn dyed weaving enterprise, and it has many cost advantages. Finally, it reflects a relatively high gross profit rate. Because Lutai was established very old, the original machinery and equipment have passed the depreciation period, and the cost is very low. The third advantage is customer advantage. In order to ensure the quality of products delivered to customers on time. the main adverse impact on Lutai in 2009 was exchange earnings. This year Lutai hedged 331 million. In this way, earnings per share may be reduced by 6 cents, but if the export tax rebate rate is increased, the income will rise. We expect a 12.3% growth in 2009, and a neutral estimate of 5.4%. the second main line: traditional stocks with high cash dividends ensure investment returns. the dividend of these companies is also a good choice if we can get a higher interest rate than the bank deposit rate in the same period. Youngor and Rutai are traditional companies with high cash dividends. Why do these two companies prefer cash dividends? Because of their ownership structure. I personally think these two enterprises are also companies that pay great attention to social responsibility. In 2005, Weixing also has a high proportion of cash dividends. If the dividend rate of Weixing is only 40% in cash, if the dividend rate is 14%. This cash dividend ability, but also further combined with the company's financial security situation. the third main line: looking for tenbagger in textile and clothing in the downturn period we believe that brand clothing is an investment product with potential. In 2006, the consumption of sportswear per capita in South Korea is 33 times that of China. We think that if China's economy reaches such a level one day, there is still a lot of room for growth in clothing consumption. In the process of economic development of various countries, it has indeed bred a growth rate that can reach growth rate for more than 20 years. For example, Polo's net profit is 13.6%, hugoboss's net profit growth is 14.4%. The mass leisure market is an industry that can bring us surprise: INDITEX's fine profit conforms to the growth rate of 26.3%, and that of handm is 25%. How to find this kind of company in Chinese brand clothing? At present, after all, there are only four listed companies in China: seven wolf, happy bird, Meibang clothing and Youngor. First of all, we should discuss these market segments, because they determine the growth space of the industry and the intensity of competition. At present, the channel management and supply chain management capabilities of these enterprises are the foundation of enterprise development. In the short run, introspective growth of single store and channel expansion are the direct factors driving the performance growth in 2009. Meibang belongs to the mass leisure market. We believe that this market is the most likely market segment with tens of times of growth space in the future. From some experience in the international market, for example, INDITEX accounts for 15% of the total market in Spain. AGP accounts for 17% of the total market. China's leisure clothing accounted for the highest proportion of Meibang, accounting for 0.95%. I personally think that there will be a certain brand in this industry in the future, and its market share will increase to more than 3%. Most likely, these brands are, I think, Meibang. Because Meibang is better than other enterprises in several aspects, such as supply chain management. You may say that this is a relatively hanging thing. I will explain the problem with a simple data, that is, the inventory turnover rate. The inventory turnover rate of Meibang is 5.14, far higher than that of other enterprises. M.B. is also a leader in opening large stores. Meibang has 203 stores with 500 square meters. At present, Meibang and Youngor are the only two enterprises that can open big stores and make profits. These big stores of Meibang are mainly rented. They can open big stores and make money. It really reflects that his overall management level is leading in the industry. The company has launched the brand of bmpc on the basis of Meibang. We think this brand is likely to be successful. we have also made some judgments on the profit in 2009, and the performance of Meibang will increase by 38%. If only rely on channel expansion, the performance growth will be 22%. the competitors of quqilang are LiLang, Jinba and Qipai, and the competition among them is equal to that of brand. CCTV5 has almost become a dedicated channel for Jinjiang enterprises. In the past two years, seven wolves have developed rapidly, and need to be further standardized in supply chain management and channel management. Of course, compared with other enterprises, he has the advantage of abundant cash. According to the performance forecast in 2009, if the endogenous growth rate of single store is - 8%, the net profit will still grow by 20%. Happy bird: its industry is the dress industry, which is currently the industry with the highest barriers to entry, which requires a high capital cost. At present, although there are a lot of formal clothes brands, Zhuangji and Fapai are in direct competition with the news bird. For our profit forecast in 2009, if we say that the single store has an endogenous growth of 5%, the net profit in 2009 will increase by 26%. If there is no single store growth, the net profit is 21%. For the whole clothing industry. There are some stocks at the bottom of the textile sector. We also compare the static P / E ratios of several key listed companies in the textile sector with those in the international market. We find that compared with the international market, the current valuation level of Meibang and baoxiniao is not cheap. Further investment in these brands is needed. On the whole, today's stock selection ideas are as follows: 1. Market leader Lutai and Weixing shares 2. Golden red from high-end - 3. Meibang clothing with long-term growth potential recommended varieties: Weixing Co., Ltd., Lutai B cautious recommendation: Lutai a, Meibang and baoxiniao. ? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????&