How To View The Recent Fluctuation Of RMB Exchange Rate

< p > in fact, people only pay attention to the recent depreciation of the bilateral exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, but ignore another indicator, which is more comprehensive to reflect the trend of RMB exchange rate, the trend of effective exchange rate.

According to the bank for International Settlements, the nominal effective exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate of the RMB increased by 0.48% and 1.57% respectively from the beginning of 2 to the end of the month, reflecting the overall appreciation of China's currency for major trading partners.

In this sense, the so-called depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is only an increase in the flexibility of the RMB against the US dollar.

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< p > this round of depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar coincides with the central bank's expansion of the floating rate of the RMB exchange rate, which also leads to the view that the market share of the central bank's argument of devaluation of the renminbi is quite high.

But after China's trade deficit and foreign exchange figures came out in February, we suddenly realized that this round of devaluation has some reasons.

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According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs (P), China's trade deficit reached US $22 billion 980 million in February, compared with a surplus of US $880 million in the same period last year.

In fact, as early as February, the market had split up on the trade data and the RMB to us dollar exchange rate. In the view of some people that China's exports will remain strong in February this year, some participants, according to the seasonality of China's import and export data in recent years, are sensitively aware that the trade surplus in the first quarter is likely to decrease, even in some months, there will be a deficit. The inflow of capital brought by trade will be greatly reduced, thereby reducing the demand for RMB in the foreign exchange market and triggering the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

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< p > on the other hand, looking at the international environment, since January, the currencies of emerging market countries have been relatively volatile, and the currencies of some countries have been at a low level for several years.

The measures to reduce the scale of debt purchases and withdraw from the QE also led to the return of international funds to the US, which further aggravated the pressure of currency devaluation in emerging markets.

A comprehensive analysis of international and domestic factors can clearly show that the decline in the RMB exchange rate is a normal exchange rate fluctuation reflecting market expectations and changes in the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market.

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The data released by the central bank in March 18th (P) showed that in February, foreign exchange accounted for only 128 billion 200 million yuan in financial institutions, which was significantly lower than the 437 billion 400 million yuan in January, and fell to a low level in the past 5 months.

Xie Yaxuan, director of macroeconomic research at China Merchants Securities, believes that if the exchange rate is weak in the middle of February, the central bank intends to lower the value of the central bank. The central bank will need to have large foreign exchange reserves. However, the foreign exchange occupation in February is significantly lower than that in January. It also confirms that the weaker exchange rate since mid February is caused by the demand and supply of the foreign exchange market.

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< p > ten thousand steps should be taken to exclude the international and domestic factors. The two-way fluctuation of exchange rate is also an inevitable rule of the market.

Looking back to 2005, with the outbreak of the international a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp", the outbreak of the financial crisis "/a" and the process of the recovery of various countries, the global economy has several volts, but the RMB has continued to appreciate against the US dollar for 8 years, which is rare in international monetary history.

In its exchange rate report last October, the US Treasury also pointed out that if the inflation rate was taken into account, the effective exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by about 45% since the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005.

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< p > throughout the history of international monetary development, as a country's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> economic marketization" /a "continues to improve and the market mechanism continues to improve, the exchange rate of a country's currency cannot be maintained for a long time, and the establishment of a flexible exchange rate mechanism has become the consensus of all countries.

Under the current environment of domestic and foreign economic development fluctuating, the RMB exchange rate gradually going to the market is bound to fluctuate. It can not be promoted or depreciated for a long time. It is not appropriate to make a judgement of appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the future.

With the expansion of the RMB exchange rate floating range, the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will gradually become the norm in the future.

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< p > as for some American officials' special concerns about the recent depreciation of RMB a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" and the depreciation of /a > /a, there is also a "regular" action every year in the United States, which is issued annually by the United States in April.

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In the past years, the United States has to use this report to make a difference in China's exchange rate policy, accusing China of intervening in the exchange rate market. P

However, as the RMB exchange rate is approaching the equilibrium level and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate further expands, the United States has been embarrassed to directly accuse China of manipulating the exchange rate. It can only create some momentum before the exchange rate report is released, arrange individual officials to jump out and shout, hoping to give some pressure to China and give some impetus to the appreciation of the renminbi.

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"P > http://news.sohu.com/20140417/n398419241.shtml news.sohu.com false people's network http://finance.people.com.cn/n/2014/0417/c1004-24910698.html report 16532 months, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has changed the trend of continuous appreciation in the past, and there has been a wave of depreciation. This unexpected market has really made some arbitrages who believe that the RMB will continue to appreciate.