The Rise Or Fall Of RMB Is Robber Logic.

　　 exchange rate Volatility is a normal phenomenon.

This year, the yuan has depreciated about 3.1% against the US dollar, which has evaporated the increase of 3% last year. Guan Tao, director of the balance of Payments Division of the State Administration of foreign exchange, believes that the RMB exchange rate is a normal phenomenon and has a macro and micro basis.

Statistics show that this round of depreciation is far from a long-term appreciation. From the reform to the end of 2013, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 36%. So far, the RMB exchange rate has been about 1% in the first quarter, both bilateral and multilateral.

at home and abroad Economic development All changes affect the trend of RMB exchange rate. "Since the beginning of this year, domestic economic growth has slowed down steadily, foreign trade and imports and exports have been relatively low, and some credit default incidents have begun to expose. The main external problem is the accelerated withdrawal of the Federal Reserve QE. These are triggering factors for the differentiation of exchange rate expectations and the movement of capital flows. In particular, when the RMB exchange rate fluctuates, the arbitrage transaction on the unilateral upward appreciation of the renminbi will be squeezed out, and the demand for clearing foreign exchange will be released, which in turn will further push forward the fluctuation of the exchange rate and the pressure of capital outflow, so the change can be explained. Guan Tao said.

According to data released by the central bank, new financial institutions in February Foreign exchange occupation Much lower than in January, falling to a low level of nearly 5 months, indicating that the weakening of exchange rate since mid February has much to do with the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market.

　　 Pressure China on its own interests

The yuan has continued to appreciate against the US dollar for many years. Even in 2008, when other countries' currencies depreciated sharply against the US dollar and the US dollar maintained a strong risk of avoiding risks, the yuan continued to appreciate. In the years of unilateral appreciation, China's economy has suffered many losses, including the failure of export competitiveness of foreign trade enterprises, and the influx of hot money from arbitrage. The US has benefited a lot: China's exports to the US have been reduced, the external pressure of American enterprises has been reduced, and China's imports of goods to the US have increased.

Today, although the renminbi has depreciated against the US dollar, it has little fluctuation compared with the main reserve currencies and emerging economies. Even so, the United States is not satisfied.

In April each year, the United States routinely releases semi annual exchange rate reports for major trade partners. This year, the report said that during this period, no major US trading partner, including China, had manipulated its own exchange rate to gain unfair trade advantage, so it was not listed as a "currency manipulator". However, the report pointed out that the appreciation rate of RMB is still not enough, and since February this year, the RMB has fallen by more than 2% against the US dollar. The US Treasury will continue to pay close attention to the trend of the RMB exchange rate and will appeal to the Chinese government for further policy adjustments.

"The simplest truth of the United States is that currency appreciation weakens competitiveness and vice versa. The US dollar has been seeking depreciation, and the US economy is no better, and the US dollar does not appreciate, so the pressure policy of the US is actually for the sake of the economic interests of the United States, and has a greater disadvantage to China's economy. Tan Yaling, Dean of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said.

　　 Two way wave conditions are available.

The United States continues to criticize and continue to accuse the appreciation of RMB, but its "intervention" seems to be increasingly limited. Experts pointed out that the future exchange rate trend will be more determined by the market.

"Instead of looking at short-term fluctuations, we should pay more attention to the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate, which should be combined with the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism". Guan Tao believes that the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has both macro and micro conditions. On the macro level, the RMB exchange rate is moving towards a balanced and reasonable level. On the micro level, while the surplus brought by the real economy activity is decreasing, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales continues to increase, which indicates that the cyclical financial operation of more RMB and short foreign currencies has increased the pressure of arbitrage capital inflow.

Guan Tao pointed out that market supply and demand has become an important factor affecting the trend of the RMB exchange rate, but it is not the only factor. The trend of RMB exchange rate is more and more like asset price changes such as stocks and bonds. The non flow and non transaction factors such as psychological expectation and price revaluation may affect the exchange rate level.

Insiders expect that the RMB exchange rate flexibility will be further enhanced in the future, and two-way volatility will become the norm. In the short term, there will still be room for depreciation of the renminbi, but the overall trend will have an upward trend during the year. The vice president of the Minsheng Securities Research Institute and the chief macroeconomic researcher, Mr Guan Qing you, predicted that the RMB exchange rate would rise slightly in the two-way fluctuation with the recovery of export and surplus in the two quarter.