Yang Shibin Talks About The Trend Of China's Cotton Textile Industry

< p > Assistant to Yang Shibin, President of China Textile Industry Federation: < /p >
< p > respectful to President Lu, respectful president of the conference, distinguished delegates, I am entrusted by the general assembly to report to the general assembly that after several years of implementation of the cotton purchase and storage policy, the changes that China's cotton industry is facing has four changes: < /p >
< p > one is the change of policy, the change of market, the change of enterprise and the change of product. In retrospect, our current cotton purchase and storage policy and the direct Cotton Subsidy trial that will start soon this year will take three years to collect and store. We concluded that we finally had the right to speak in cotton. Many of us thought for many years and then did a lot of things, but it never seems to have attached much importance to China's cotton industry before. The three year policy of collecting and storing makes our cotton industry highly concerned by the world. Any country has to consider China's cotton flower and our stock. The acquisition of the right to speak is very costly. < /p >
In addition, in 2014, we will cancel the purchase and storage of cotton and Xinjiang's pilot Cotton Subsidy. It is estimated that cotton prices will fall, and the difference between us and the international cotton prices will be narrowed. Recently, the price difference has shrunk to the lowest level in history, but the price drop for textile enterprises is. Let's talk about four aspects: the first change in the cotton consumption market. Just from the speeches and speeches made by several speakers in the morning, how much cotton did China use? There are two figures. These two figures are totally different. One is how much cotton the Chinese textile industry has used, and the other is how much cotton the Chinese cotton factory has bought. We have seen that the use of cotton has always been stable in the textile processing industry in China for many years. The amount of cotton has probably been reduced from 10 million tons to 11 million tons. Affected by the policy, the number of cotton enterprises in China's textile enterprises has changed considerably. The output and import of cotton from 2011 to 2013, as well as the output of cotton yarn produced by the Statistics Bureau, as well as the import of cotton yarn. It is worth noting that the import of Chinese cotton yarn has increased by nearly 600 thousand tons per year from the original 900 thousand tons (2011). China has always been the main exporter of cotton yarn. In recent years, we have become an importing country. It should be said that if we import 1 million 100 thousand tons of cotton yarn, it means that 1000 to 12 million of the cotton textile spindles will be eliminated, which is growing rapidly. In the first quarter of this year, we saw that this number is still growing, though the rate has dropped slightly. We judge that the total demand for cotton is the premise and foundation for all our discussions. This is based on the fact that there has been no major change in the amount of cotton fiber used in China's textile industry, but the cotton consumption in our cotton textile industry has been greatly reduced. < /p >
< p > Second, to judge the situation this year. This year's agencies have a prediction in the prediction that the developed economies will see a strong trend in 2014. They will become a new driving force for growth, which gives the projected growth of GDP in the three regions of the United States, Europe and Japan. In this case, we can see that the United States will recover to a 2.8% growth rate, which is relatively high. Japan and the EU are in the range of 1.2% to 1.4%, especially the EU from negative growth to positive, almost 1.2% growth, this is a relatively high speed. In this regard, we see that our country is affected by the relative good external environment. Our current export situation, in which the export scale continues to expand, we are now investigating many enterprises. Although the index of international orders has dropped slightly, there are still nearly 54% of the index level. From the absolute statistics of customs statistics, we have given the statistics from 2000 to 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. From these data, basically speaking, from 2000 to 2013, the average export rate of China's textiles and clothing has reached 43%, which is a very high number. Now, our trade level has accounted for nearly 36% or about 36% of the world's figures. < /p >
When we see the developed economies, we will also see that emerging economies, in 2013, are still talking about the pull of the emerging economies to the whole world economy in 2013. But the gap soon dropped, and our clothing exports increased by only 1.77% over the same period last year, down 26.57 percentage points from last year's (28.34%). At noon, we also received a telephone call saying that we had some factories that invested in Vietnam. They had been hit hard. Their factories had unidentified personnel rushing in to smash their computers and factories, including Japanese enterprises, enterprises in Taiwan and South Korean enterprises. The stability of a country is closely related to its exchange rate stability. In such an environment, their growth will be greatly affected. < /p >
< p > from the domestic demand market, many of us will feel the pressure of domestic sales is huge. The total volume of retail sales of social statistics before was the previous statistical method. In recent years, we feel that we must include the total retail sales of social commodities (the statistics of large shopping malls enterprises) in the domestic sales data, and also add network sales data. We see that the third line is clothing above the quota, which is only 11% of the growth rate, but only 9% in the first quarter of this year. But as you can see, the growth rate of online shopping and Internet clothing is above 40%, and the growth of B2C has reached 72%. The change of new consumption patterns has made great changes in our domestic demand market. This is a very profound change. We need to study these data and think carefully. < /p >
< p > in the fourth changes in the market changes, let's talk about a more critical point. Before we talked about the total amount of cotton and the international market and domestic market, we also need to look at the future market. What will be the future market? That is investment. In the past few years before investing in China, investment in the central and western regions has increased rapidly, attracting more investment than the eastern region, and a large amount. But this year there has been a profound change. Investment in the East is larger than that in the central and western regions. We see that the proportion of investment in the East has changed from 59% to 64%. In the layout of our country, we can see that investment in the West has increased by 9.8%, and the eastern region has 13%. In the eastern part, the enterprises are committed to updating and innovating products. The goal of our investment can not be the growth of numbers, but the improvement of quality and efficiency. < /p >
< p > in third aspects, I would like to report to you about the change of enterprise. As a result of policy changes brought about by enterprises. First, the pace of structural adjustment has accelerated significantly, and our enterprises have seen more obvious polarization. In 2013, the National Bureau of statistics gave an average profit margin of more than 10%, and the main business revenue accounted for 16% of the industry, but the total profit accounted for 43.6% of the whole industry, and this trend has been tracking for many years and is continuing to increase. At the same time, we tracked the losses of deficit companies, which changed, sometimes high and sometimes low, but the obvious polarization intensified. In order to cope with the current difficulties, enterprises are constantly using two markets and two kinds of resources. In learning and using our policies, the pace of enterprises going abroad is accelerating. But in the process of going out, it also encountered problems like ASEAN, and also encountered some problems in Africa. We can see that there is already an enterprise in the cotton spinning industry (Zhejiang Cole) investing in the southern part of the United States. Last month, we also went to South Carolina to have a look. < /p >
< p > Fourth aspects, we talk about the change of products. In the change of products, we can see clearly that the competitiveness of the first technology and equipment is becoming increasingly prominent, and our products are changing to high quality. The customs import situation of our textile machinery was basically before 2012. When we analyzed the data, we accounted for the first import of knitting machinery. Last year, we started knitting machinery station to third, such as loom accounted for 200 million of imports, and their growth rate was two digits. I would like to emphasize that most of these growth is for our current transformation and upgrading, not a growth in quantity, not a mere expansion of production capacity. They have eliminated many old ones, with the aim of making products more competitive and less labour intensive. From this perspective, as long as machines replace workers, the first consideration is substitution instead of cost. Second, the application of alternative materials is more. After 2009, we are constantly replacing. There was an increase in 2009 and 2010, but there will be a stagnation in 2010. Since 2011, there has been another growth. Many enterprises have adopted alternative a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > fiber < /a >, so that their life can be maintained. < /p >
< p > finally, let's talk about what the core changes are. These four changes bring us two core changes. The two core changes are complex and changeable. < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > external environment < /a > makes China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > cotton spinning industry < /a > more powerful. We have a group of enterprises that have fallen down and have not survived. But the companies that we have come to become more competitive, they not only have their own products, but also have a better market, and have a better grasp of policies than before. Second, no matter what you think, no matter how you look at it, they never really care about the industry chain as much as they do now. Before I said that I am a cotton buyer, a cotton buyer and a cotton seller, no one dared to speak simply now. The industrial chain has been closely strengthened in such a policy change. < /p >
< p > finally, we will predict what kind of situation we may face in 2014: I want to say that the three case is very important, the first one is inventory. Our current cotton inventory will test the wisdom of our government. We say there are three difficulties: first, the current cost of cotton inventory is relatively high. We received 19800 yuan and 20400 yuan respectively for a lot of cotton, and the quantity is also large. At the same time, what we feel is even more frightening is quality worry. This quality worry is not a good "excellent", but a worrying thing. Let me give you an example. When we studied cotton reserve work, during the year, local leaders and local enterprises demanded that cotton below grade five not be collected. But we considered that the farmers' brothers were very hard. We introduced policies to collect these cotton. The cotton was expected to have 500 thousand tons to 600 thousand tons at that time. During the course of our treasury collection, we did not receive much of such cotton. Where did this cotton go, I believe everyone here knows it. < /p >
< p > Second, I think the strength of capital will become the biggest advantage of trade, not only trade, but also production enterprises. In recent years, in the circulation of trade, the strength of capital is very important. This is more conducive to large enterprises and powerful enterprises. < /p >
< p > Third, cotton prices will remain at a downward stage for quite a long time. Our cotton enterprises should also take a longer consideration. We also have to undergo long-term or long-term trials. < /p >
< p > the analysis is just to tell you the situation. We sincerely hope that China's cotton industry will have a better tomorrow. < /p >