The Central Bank Will Let Go If The RMB Exchange Rate Is Surging.

The degree of marketization of exchange rate < p > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB > /a > reached a high point after entering May. However, analysts believe that the basic equilibrium of the RMB exchange rate is not stable. After the initial exchange rate fluctuations, enterprises are shocked and the demand for risk avoidance is greatly improved. There are many uncertainties in policy, economy and politics at home and abroad. < /p >
< p > < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > two-way fluctuation > /a > realized, the market spontaneously jumps back and forth. After so many years, it is not easy to intervene at all. "A stock trader commented that the recent direction of foreign exchange market was" very exciting ", but the result was that he often lost money. < /p >
< p > the situation reflected by the comprehensive traders, at present, the risk aversion space of enterprises is soaring. In the past, when the RMB appreciated unilaterally, the commonly used financial operations such as delayed assets purchase and advance settlement, such as "assets in local currency and liabilities in dollarization", were reduced, and the supply and demand tended to be balanced. < /p >
< p > its concrete manifestation is simply that the market is highly cautious and the liquidity at the same price level is worse, which makes the price fluctuation more easy. But at the same time, the exchange of foreign exchange is accelerating. The exchange between passenger and purchase in foreign exchange and settlement is more sensitive, and it is not easy to get out of the unilateral trend. < /p >
< p > "when the price is low, there will be the purchase of foreign exchange. When the price is high, there will be settlement. The customers' response is very sensitive, professional and fast, and the frequency is high." One foreign trader said. < /p >
According to the latest data released by China safe on Tuesday, the surplus of foreign exchange sales was only $7 billion 900 million in April, down more than 80% compared with the previous month, and hit a new low of nine months. In the same period, the long-term net settlement of bank customers was only $1 billion 500 million, reaching a new low of 18 months in P. This also shows the equilibrium of enterprise needs. < /p >
< p > under this market condition, the intermediate price indication with less fluctuation is weaker. According to Reuters estimates, since May, as of the 19 day of the 11 trading days, the reference price of the middle price has risen and depreciated. Only three days of opening and closing prices have been aligned, accounting for 27%, compared with 68% at the end of this year to the end of April. This shows that the market price has not listened to the middle price since May. < /p >
< p > < strong > equilibrium material is difficult to maintain. < /strong > < /p >
< p > perhaps this change is too new and has not been noticed by the US government. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Jaclu pressed China to release control of the RMB a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" and the exchange rate < /a >, but was refuted by Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister of finance of China, who believed that the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate reflected the market demand. < /p >
< p > market participants pointed out that there are many factors influencing the trend of exchange rate in the later period. In the second half of the year, it is a big concept event to recover Appreciation under the favorable balance pattern. However, what setbacks will be experienced is still elusive. < /p >
< p > "equilibrium can not last forever. I believe that after the market breaks through the operating section, the price will quickly pull apart." Another stock line trader said that in the current 6.20-6.28 yuan range, the market supply and demand should remain relatively stable, but the possibility of breakthroughs in two directions can not be ruled out. < /p >
< p > 1, the head of the stock exchange said that such a balance may be sustained in the rest of the month. After entering June, there will be a slight increase in the amount of foreign exchange purchased under capital terms based on historical experience, and the possibility of a moderate devaluation of the RMB will be relatively greater. However, the three quarter will be rebounded by the rebound in foreign trade. < /p >
< p > another foreign trader believes that the important factors affecting the currency market are political factors, including the pressure on the RMB exchange rate in the United States and instability in Ukraine. All of these will cause shocks and fluctuations to the RMB exchange rate. < /p >
< p > < strong > go back to old road or take a new road? < /strong > < /p >
The central bank has made a lot of efforts in differentiating market expectations this year. In the late period, with the reduction of uncertainties, the convergence of differentiation is expected to become the focus of the central bank's reintroduction of intervention tools or the promotion of P reform. < /p >
< p > from a number of policy objectives, the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will remain the most perfect trend in the second half of the year. Continued depreciation will lead to capital flight and a clear rebound, which will allow arbitrage to come back, and the weak oscillation can not only comply with the Chinese government's intention to protect foreign trade, but also consolidate the effectiveness of anti arbitrage. < /p >
From the perspective of "P", intervention seems to have its rationality and needs to be concerned with whether there is any change in the way and frequency. "In extreme cases, intervention should be taken. The central bank merely said that it would withdraw from normal intervention and did not say that it would not interfere completely." Li Liuyang, chief financial market analyst at MITSUBISHI Union Bank of Japan (China), said MITSUBISHI. < /p >
< p > relative to the unpredictable exchange rate trend, analysts are more worried about the decline of RMB exchange rate flexibility. By pushing forward the reform of exchange rate price formation mechanism, increasing the proportion of market supply and demand in the middle price, and further enhancing the elasticity of exchange rate, it can play a 42 role in strengthening the marketization. < /p >
< p > its research shows that from March 17th to April 30th, the average volatility of the "spread" is 0.19%, which is larger than 0.06% in 2013, but not half as high as 0.53% of the average daily fluctuation of the major economies last year. If we want to eliminate the spread trade, it will be enough for the RMB to fluctuate to 0.50% against the US dollar. < /p >
< p > "under the condition that the elasticity of the intermediate price is not enough, the effect of merely expanding the fluctuation of exchange rate is better than nothing. The average daily adjustment of the US dollar to RMB should be expanded about six times from 0.05% today to 0.29%. That is to say, assuming that 6.2 of the US dollar is against the RMB exchange rate, the average daily price should be adjusted by about 180 basis points. Lu commissar suggested. < /p >
< p > the HSBC research report believes that enhancing the two-way exchange rate elasticity under the double balance of payments is not difficult. This requires bold foreign exchange policy reform and further opening up with capital account to enhance exchange rate flexibility and encourage normal capital outflow. Besides, domestic financial market reform should also be promoted to narrow domestic and foreign interest margins. < /p >
< p > < strong > has third roads? < /strong > < /p >
< p > besides the old road and the new road, is there a third way that affects the exchange rate trend? The answer may be the real rise of the market power, and let the market take the lead in itself. This is already showing signs, but it still takes time to test. < /p >
< p > the purchase of foreign exchange (oil pan) from oil importing enterprises has shown a sustained impact in the market since April due to its large volume. But its whereabouts are flicker and its tactics are strange, or let the market tend to attribute it to third forces outside the enterprise and bank. < /p >
< p > traders said that since April, the main intervention of suspected RMB intervention has been gradually reduced and the oil pan replaced. The oil pan has become a key factor in the short term trend of the foreign exchange market when the foreign exchange is generally balanced. Under its promotion, the yuan depreciated to 6.2676 yuan in April from a high point of 6.1860 yuan, with a devaluation of more than 800 basis points. < /p >
< p > "basically every day since April." A foreign bank trader told Reuters at the beginning of this month that this is related to the depreciation of offshore renminbi, and the price of oil companies to purchase foreign exchange in the territory is even better, so the oil pan is in force at this time. < /p >
< p > but the market is doubtful about the role of oil pan in pushing the renminbi down. The above traders said that the more devaluation of the renminbi, the more obvious the oil pan is, which is odd. "If we do not rule out cooperation with the central bank, it will be more subtle to intervene." < /p >