Home >

A Share Market, Professional Shareholders, Full Warehouse 3 Years Deficit 5%

2014/7/9 9:53:00 25

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

A Shares Professional Shareholders Stock Market

> the world's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > clothing < /a > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "http://www.91se91.com/" > shoes "< > hat net" Xiaobian "to introduce the sad and obsession of the value chain of the stock market: professional shareholders full 3 years deficit 5%.

"3 years doubling is a big probability event."

.

3 years ago, professional investors were full of confidence in the Tang Dynasty.

At that time, he had enough family expenses for 3 years, all the other cash was invested in the stock market, and he insisted on the principle of bonus reinvestment.

today, the total value of his account still loses nearly 5%.

In desperation, the Tang Dynasty had to withdraw this year's dividend and subsidize the family.

"Whoever cares about fundamentals will lose at the starting line."

Last year, the A share market was quite popular.

The value investors are losing their attention to the trend investors who talk with the heart of the stage.

Another dismal harvest in the first half of this year allowed them to avoid problems related to their performance.

long bear road. Some of the A value faction camps have been abandoned, some people suspect, but more like the adherence of the Tang Dynasty.

Even if the fact of losing money keeps them physically and mentally tortured or even ashamed to say to the outside world, "they are speculating stocks", they still believe that the value of being wrongly killed will eventually be reassessed by the market.

strong > values can only be done by waiting.

.

"P >" I waited without hope for my Godot. It was a long wait. I waited in the endless night like hell for fear of losing the direction in the night without the stars. It began to wait, and then I found that waiting became a habit...

The lines in waiting for Godot are like telling their voices.

they have been sticking to blue chip stocks for many years in the A share market, claiming to be "value investors". They value Buffett's theory of value investing and are eager to achieve financial freedom through investment. They always think they are in the right direction, but the market always shakes their heads in disdain.

never had a period like this, let them feel frustrated and frustrated.

Some people give up, some suspect, but more are those who stick to it.

Unlike P and Vladimir, the sad and stubborn values believe that their waiting is not in vain.

there is always a day for the tide to recede. They may be waiting for Godot.

value group's "bleak" years /p >

no such period has ever been so frustrating for investors who have always believed in Buffett's value investing philosophy.

If we use "plain" to sum up their achievements in the first half of the year, then they suffered double tortures of body and mind and money in the past few years, and can only be described with "dismal".

"half a year later, many friends are writing investment summaries. Unfortunately, the investment in the first half of the Tang Dynasty is too plain to be written."

One day in early July, Tang Dynasty, a professional investor, shared his half year performance in snowball net. In the first half of the year, he still held several blue chip stocks, such as Moutai and China Merchants Bank, and his market value increased by less than 7% compared with the beginning of the year.

although the half year performance of the Tang Dynasty seems to be unsatisfactory, the fact that he has extended his performance curve and lost nearly 5% of his total value in the past three years still makes him feel lost and confused.

In the spring of 2011, after more than one year in the empty warehouse, the Tang Dynasty once again entered the market near the 2900 point of Shanghai Stock Exchange, and confidently thought that "doubling 3 years is a big probability event".

As a result, he spent 3 years on his family expenses, and all other cash was invested in the stock market, and he insisted on the principle of dividend reinvestment.

3 years have passed, but a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Shanghai composite index < /a > still stays near 2000, but life still needs to continue. Helpless, the Tang Dynasty decided to withdraw this year's dividend and subsidize the family.

Now, for him, shareholding has become a habit and has gradually lost its concern for the "double" problem.

The difference between the P and the first half of the Tang Dynasty is that the "lonely investors" of sina micro-blog, who also believe in the theory of "buy low and sell high" value investment, have had an unforgettable paction mistake in the first half of the year.

in April of this year, as a result of overestimating the rebound space of Moutai in Guizhou, "lonely investors" bought and earned 20% of their own funds in the early stage, and then bought two times of the above 175 yuan financing, and then stopped the financing part from the crash.

This defeat has directly damaged his investment performance in the first half of the year.

On Friday night, when p decided to stop the loss, "lonely investors" admitted to reporters that he had invested in the past few years.

the first barrel of "lonely investor" came from the huge bull market in 2007. In 2005, when the stock market dropped to 2000, he bought three shares such as Sinopec with 500 thousand capital. He kept holding the stock for the next two years, and by May 2007, he had invested 500 thousand to about 2500000.

"the essence of investment is to earn the difference between greed and fear of human nature!" he recalled that in the second half of 2007, he felt that the stock market was so high that he began to cut down the stock in batches and buy shops and real estate in batches.

Since then, housing prices have experienced a surge, but in the past two years, he began to worry about housing prices. In 2010, he sold two apartments in succession, and bought the bank shares in batches.

"P" may be precisely because he is "buying and holding firmly" in the bull market, making him suffer from physical and mental destruction in the bear market, so he is disappointed and stopped in the bull market again and again.

Last September, he financing Pudong Development Bank made up to 600 thousand, but the final stop came out, and the recovery on Moutai is only a repetition of his bear market.

"using leverage is much more horrible than gambling. Trying to buy only one stock at a so-called historical low point is only childish and ridiculous. The huge wealth or huge losses caused by leverage are all unbearable for individuals and families.

"Lonely investors" reconsidered afterwards.

Why do not p go up to a certain level? In the face of doubts from journalists and other investors, he responded in a unified way, "what should we do if the bull market comes?" my answer is "patiently holding the undervalued blue chip stocks".

Why did "China Buffett" fail?

in fact, in the bear market, it is not only the private investors such as Tang Dynasty and lonely investors who lost their value stocks in the bear market, but also the most representative institutional investors of value in China such as Dong Baozhen and Li Chi.

since Dong Baozhen was founded in June 2010, Moutai has been heavily holding Moutai, and even used 1.5 to 1 financing leverage to increase its position.

At the end of 2013, he managed the net value of the no Tai fund only 0.3509 yuan, down 62.26% in one year, and became the most tragic "sunshine private placement" in 2013.

Li Chi, Shenzhen's private sector bigwigs, is known as one of the three most successful investors in China's "replication Buffett".

Good buy fund data show that its creation of the same prestige assets of 6 trust products, 5 loss, the only profit with the Wei 1 phase only 0.11% profit this year, which has been questioned by many investors.

In the face of investor doubt, Dong Baozhen, who has always insisted on Buffett's theory of value investment, insists that "we are right, wrong is the market!" and in fact, a good investor can make money by making mistakes in the market, instead of being upset by the wrong market. P

Why did "P Buffett" fail? "CEO Buffett, Beijing Jinshi Zhiyuan Asset Management Co., Ltd. believes that Buffett's success is not only internal but also closely related to the background of the big bull market in the great economic development of the United States.

It is part of the cause of Buffett's miracle to sail in the doldrums and start out in the dark.

as one of the earliest investors to contact Buffett in China, Yang Tiannan believes that behind the miracle of Buffett is the bull market of the US stock market.

Looking back at A shares, from the 1500 point in 1993 to the current 2050 point, the stock market was overvalued at the beginning. This is also the fundamental reason for the overall loss of Chinese shareholders far greater than the profit.

objective reason is only an excuse, subjective reason is the root of the problem.

A well-known investor, small Simba, believes that many people in China learn from Buffett, but few of them are successful. The reason is that they are learning to run away from Buffett.

"in the highly risky investment world, the rate of return has a natural barrier. The extreme speed is like the curve on the edge of a cliff. After crossing the limit, it is impossible to recover it. It often ends up in a broken body."

Little Simba says.

according to the research, the long-term growth rate of the best companies is about 15%, and in the long run, it is difficult to surpass the real economy too much.

Therefore, even the best people can hardly get the annual compound interest rate over a long period of time, and Buffett's average annual yield of 21% is very close to the limit.

many people are amazed at Buffett's astonishing "compound interest", but few have noticed that although he has experienced many bear markets, he has never had a larger withdrawal rate in the bear market.

In the 44 years of Buffett's investment career, 8 years were small profits or even losses (losses in 2001 were 6.2%, and losses in 2008 were 9.6%), while Buffett had only 6 years' income above 40%, and most of the other 30 years were only slightly ahead of the index.

, we can see that "strict control of losses" has made Buffett a success. The amazing compound interest he created is the best example of his rapid investment wisdom.

On the contrary, many domestic value investors who claim to believe in Buffett are not able to control the withdrawal very well. If the capital is lost, how can they turn the tables even if the market is reversed?

"value investing does not mean buying long term holdings of undervalued stocks, but refers to buying and underestimating high-quality stocks and then holding on to them after losing profits. Loss is never a value investment for their capital, but a fact of loss."

Talking about the misunderstanding of value investment, "lonely investors" is a reflection.

{page_break}

the Chinese style "correction" /p > value system.

although many people still admire Buffett's idea of "buy and hold" value investment, if you want to survive in the A bear market with short bear length, you must make a necessary "amendment" to this idea.

Unlike P, Dong Baozhen and other strong value investors, Cheng Xin is not a "value investor" in strict sense.

The same is that their stock selection is Vanke A, Guizhou Moutai and other value stocks, the most obvious difference is reflected in the way of trading, Cheng Xin uses the band operation method.

Cheng Xin was also a follower of value investing theory at the beginning of the market entry. When the market was in the bull market and the box was shaking, the value stocks held by the market were often profitable. But when the market entered the bear market, the firm holding and not stopping would often suffer great losses. P

After P's determination, Cheng Hsin decided to "modify" his investment system appropriately, that is to say, in the case of constant stock selection, reduce the profit expectation of each operation, for example, the sale from the previous profit to 20% is reduced to 3%-5%, which is in line with the characteristics of bear market's weak rebound.

"P" and in practice, Cheng Hsin will not completely adhere to the established profit control strategy. Even some stocks will make 0.5% of their profits. The premise is to ensure that they do not lose money in the bear market. After two years, he realized the annual 10%-12% yield through this "small walk" paction mode.

of course, Cheng Xin's "small step and fast walk" trading mode is not suitable for the bull market. Once the market has taken the bull, it will be natural for us to "step on the air".

However, this is also a realistic choice for him in the bear market "band operation" strategy. If the market reversal is determined, he will switch to the bull market strategy of "buying and firmly holding".

similarly, after just experiencing a financing and making more Moutai losses, the "lonely investors" are revising their investment system, that is, using a part of the capital stock to underestimate the value of the stocks, holding them firmly to the market madness, selling the remaining part of the funds for band operation, and the use of financing funds must be cautious.

"the greed and fear of human nature is unpredictable, that is, the market is always irrational, even if the high-quality stocks are strictly selected, it is also likely to be punished by the market."

Lonely investors try to overturn their own system. Value investing also requires a stop loss strategy.

before, the investment idea of "lonely investor" can be summed up in 12 words: "asset allocation, low purchase, high selling, patient waiting".

He believes that in the bear market, only by combining the three indexes of "price earnings ratio, market rate and net profit growth rate", we can select several good companies, that is, the so-called "value investment", and firmly believe that "value investing" has no stop loss strategy.

"lonely investors" admitted to reporters that his investment philosophy was effective before 2008, and he really made nearly 10 times profit for him.

However, since the 2008 bear market, the decline and the length of the bear market have not been seen in the past. Although he has strictly followed the principle of asset allocation, it has caused a loss of nearly 500 thousand yuan, which has led him to deeply reflect on the value investment philosophy in the past.

facing many people's question, "if the value investment stops, then what will it do?" he thought it would rather be 20% or even 30%, and put the "retention of capital" in the first place, because if the bull market came, you only need to "patiently hold" for a period of time and earn it back.

waiting for the return of value

in this long bear market, some of the A stock value camp investors have given up, some suspect, but more like the adherence of the Tang Dynasty. Although the fact of losing money has made them physically and mentally tortured or even ashamed to say to the outside world, "they are speculating stocks", they still believe that the value of being wronged will be reassessed.

"P" not long ago, when a reporter arrived at the the Great Wall in Beijing suburb of Ma Yun, he met a large family from Chengde, Hebei.

The investor, who claimed to be the first batch of market participants, has experienced several rounds of bull and bull market experience, though he was left alone with him in the market in the early years, but he still attached himself to this market.

"P", "those who remain in this market are hard core investors. They still have hope for the legendary bull market, but they are also the most miserable and lonely people in this era."

The investor from Chengde said that when the shareholders around him left, they could only warm each other by means of social networking tools such as micro-blog and WeChat.

At the beginning of this year, "lonely investors" set up a WeChat group called "the essence of investment". Most of the investors who were dragged in were professional or quasi professional investors with certain ideas. Although they came from different parts of the country and separated from different industries, they mostly followed the concept of value investing and exchanged their investment experiences and trading systems in the group. P

"although high prices may still be higher, low prices may still be lower. The truth of" buying low and selling high "will be late but never absent. So in the next few years, the continuous sale of property and pfer to the stock market is the main direction and principle of my investment.

A group of friends expounded their investment philosophy.

and in snowball net, "Dong Bo old stock investors" is the representative of successful value investors that many fans pursue.

He set up an experimental account after the Spring Festival in February 1995, initially invested 10 thousand yuan, and the total market capitalization is about 2300000 yuan. In the recent twenty years, the average annual compound income is about 32%, while the Shanghai composite index is only 7.14% in the same period.

it is commendable that "Dong Bo old stock holders" only changed hands 9 times in 20 years. Among them, the longest holding company was Shandong aluminum, holding 5 years and holding the shortest time.

This year, he has no operation. In the future, as long as the fundamentals of bank stocks are in line with expectations, as long as the bank's share price has not risen sharply, he will continue to hold it foolishly and wait for the return of bank shares.

despite the repeated misjudgments and reversals from profit to stop loss, "lonely investors" still insist that a bull market must come in deep bear markets, but faith is not illusion, nor is it the way you think the market should go, because "bears bear cattle" is a common sense of law, and faith originates from the observance of basic common sense.

< < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp > > stock market > /a > group dancing, stock of value is silent lamb, and when the tide falls back, it is time for value investing.

A value investor from Baoji, Shaanxi, often encourages himself. The road of value investing is long. The process is hard and tortuous. Only when we are able to endure loneliness can we finally come to the end.