Analysis Of China's Macroeconomic Recovery Facing Three Major Suspense

< p > the world's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > shoes < < hat net "Xiaobian to introduce the macroeconomic recovery is facing three major suspense. < /p >
< p > < strong > downward pressure next year or greater than /strong > /p >
< p > July macroeconomic data poured cold water on the market expectations established by the economic recovery. Analysts believe that as long as there is a policy to escort the economy, stabilize the economy and achieve annual economic growth targets, there should be no suspense, but there are still three major suspends to usher in the real recovery: when will the real estate downward pressure be bottomed? How long can infrastructure investment hedge? When will the economic recovery momentum start? < /p >
< p > for the future economic trend, analysts believe that from the real estate cycle and the economic cycle, next year's economy or usher in greater downward pressure. < /p >
< p > < strong > economic stability remains to be consolidated < /strong > < /p >
< p > data on investment, consumption and industrial added value in July were not very optimistic. Analysts believe that this is mainly due to the marginal decline in the policy effectiveness of steady growth, and the current economy is highly dependent on policy underpinning. Once the easing strength is weakened, the recovery of the real economy will be a bottleneck. < /p >
< p > 1-7 months, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 259493 yuan, an increase of 17% over the nominal period, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 1-6 months. The three largest investment growth rate has dropped, manufacturing investment growth has dropped 0.2 percentage points to 14.6%; infrastructure investment has increased by 22.61%, basically unchanged from last month; real estate investment continued to decline 0.4 percentage points to 13.7%. < /p >
< p > Zhao Lina, a researcher at Minsheng securities and bonds, said that infrastructure investment, which was used to hedge against the slowdown in real estate investment growth, was slightly weak. This was related to the weakening of fiscal expenditure in July and the decline in revenue from local government land transfer. < /p >
< p > from the statistics released by the Bureau of statistics, the poor funding situation has constrained the steady growth. In 1-7 months, investment in fixed assets amounted to 292734 billion yuan, up 12.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 0.3 percentage points over 1-6 months. Among them, the national budgetary funds grew by 11.2%, the growth rate dropped 4.3 percentage points from 1-6 months, domestic loans increased by 12.7%, the growth rate dropped 0.2 percentage points, the growth rate of self raised funds was 16.6%, the growth rate dropped 0.1 percentage points, the utilization of foreign capital decreased by 9.7%, the rate of decline increased by 1.4 percentage points, and its funds dropped by 2.1%, with a drop of 0.3 percentage points. < /p >
In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in July totaled 20776 billion yuan, up 12.2% from the nominal level, down 0.2 percentage points from last month. Among them, the growth rate of automobile consumption declined significantly, only 8.1% in July and 1-7 in 10.1%. Analysts believe that the overall trend of consumption is generally stable. The slowdown in the growth of automobile consumption may be mainly influenced by the reform of the official vehicle system. But in the long term, the demand for car rental will increase, and the impact on the automobile market should be neutral. < /p >
< p > from the perspective of industrial added value data, aggregate demand is still weak. In July, the added value of above scale industries increased by 9% over the same period, and the annulus ratio increased by 0.68%, down 0.2 and 0.09 percentage points respectively compared with June. This is mainly due to the high base last year, and the slow recovery of the economy and the lack of aggregate demand, and the weakening of the kinetic energy of the industrial economy. < /p >
< p > < strong > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp" > policy < /a > there is still much room for maneuver. < /strong > /p >
< p > analysts believe that from the perspective of financial data, there is no further drain on the currency, and the steady growth in the future can not be expected to be fully relaxed in monetary policy, otherwise the pace of structural adjustment will slow down. In the face of the slowdown in real estate investment growth, there is nothing left to do. There is still room for policy move. Especially, counter cyclical fiscal policy is expected to work in a timely manner. < /p >
< p > for real estate investment growth decline, there is a view that the downlink cyclical property is far from over, the impact on the economy can not be underestimated. CITIC construction investment report shows that the depth of the real estate adjustment will be much greater than that of 2008 and 2011. It is not hard to imagine that GDP growth will fall below the 6.6% lows set in the 1 quarter of 2009, and that the impact of the international financial turmoil on China's exports is not yet obvious. < /p >
< p > analysts believe that the process of urbanization is far from over, and the demand for new houses brought by large numbers of people in cities should not be underestimated. As long as the reform of household registration, land, finance and taxation is progressing smoothly, the huge potential of urbanization will be released. < /p >
< p > Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shen Wan, said that the growth rate of real estate demand in the near future will be reduced to around 3%. The growth center of the new construction area will remain at around 0%, and the investment growth center will drop to about 8%. < /p >
< p > analysts say that although data on investment, consumption and industrial added value have begun to doubt whether the economic trend is stabilizing or not, there is no doubt that there is still room for further policy making for the government's ability to grow steadily. In fact, only real estate investment growth decline, in order to really adjust the structure. < /p >
< p > Liu Xuezhi, a researcher at the Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said that the trend of economic stabilization has not been completely destroyed. From the leading indicators such as PMI, the economic trend is improving, and prices and foreign trade data are also improving. In the future, with the further efforts of the policy, infrastructure investment will effectively hedge the decline of real estate investment growth. In the second half of this year, fiscal policy has greater room for countercyclical efforts, and the 1 trillion and 350 billion fiscal deficit of the government work report has not yet been really used. < /p >
< p > < strong > next year, economy or welcome greater pressure < /strong > /p >
< p > for the future economic trend, analysts believe that the three quarter of the economy still has downward pressure, but it is expected that the policy will remain relaxed and achieve the goal of economic growth throughout the year. This means that the whole year's economy may show a N trend, but the greater pressure is in 2015. < /p >
"P >" CITIC construction investment report "said that China is still the second stock cycle rising period, but is drawing to a close. Since August 2012, China's second < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp" > inventory < /a > cycle has begun to recover. From the fourth quarter of 2014, the risk of downward economic fluctuation is increasing. Next, it is likely to go through the second stock fall period of about 18 months. < /p >
< p > analysts believe that economic growth can not always rely on steady growth. The more frequent the bottom of the policy, the weaker the endogenous driving force for economic growth. With the arrival of the big turning point in the real estate cycle, the growth interval of seven ups and down may be broken. It is estimated that about 33% of fixed assets investment in 2013 is directly and indirectly related to the real estate industry, thereby contributing 16% of GDP. This means that if other factors remain unchanged and real estate investment falls by 10%, the growth rate of fixed asset investment and GDP will decrease by 3.3 and 1.6 percentage points respectively. < /p >