RMB Exchange Rate Short Or Turn To Oscillation Market

Experts said that since the beginning of June, the appreciation stage of the RMB has been relatively large. Further appreciation or strong fundamental data is needed to follow up. However, some recent economic and financial data have been repeated. The market has not yet reached a consensus on the bottom of the economy, and the Fed's interest rate increase is expected to increase.

Recently, the uncertainty of exchange rate market has increased, and the RMB exchange rate has been temporarily or oscillating.

But in general, the RMB exchange rate has tended to be balanced and reasonable.

According to the latest data from China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar in September 1st was 6.1680, down 33 basis points from the previous trading day.

On Friday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1647.

Some market participants say that the recent uncertainty in the exchange rate market has made the RMB exchange rate short term or turning to the oscillation market.

But in general, the RMB exchange rate has now reached a balanced and reasonable level.

Some foreign exchange traders said that since the beginning of June, the appreciation stage of the RMB has been relatively large. Further appreciation or strong fundamental data is needed to follow up. However, some recent economic and financial data have been repeated, and the market has not yet reached a consensus on the bottom of the economy. The Fed's interest rate increase is expected to increase.

In this context, participants became cautious and chose to watch more and less, resulting in narrow fluctuations in the exchange rate and light trading in the market.

In addition, the RMB exchange rate in offshore markets has been lower than on shore prices, and the tendency to continue to see more is not obvious.

On the whole, the RMB exchange rate has changed for some time.

In March this year, the Central Bank of China expanded the scope of RMB trading, allowing the RMB exchange rate to fluctuate by 2% during the day.

This is the third expansion of the floating rate of RMB against the US dollar since the reform of the RMB exchange rate system in July 2005.

Previously, the floating rate of RMB exchange rate expanded from 0.3% to 0.5% in May 21, 2007, and from 0.5% to 1% in April 14, 2012.

As an important factor market, exchange rate is one of the decisive factors for effective allocation of domestic and international resources. Expanding the floating rate of RMB exchange rate is conducive to enhancing the floating elasticity of RMB exchange rate, constantly optimizing the efficiency of capital allocation, further enhancing the decisive role of market allocation of resources, and accelerating the pformation of economic development mode and structural adjustment.

Looking back on this year's foreign exchange trend, the RMB suddenly came out of a wave of depreciation in March. The RMB spot exchange rate fell by 6.27, but again since May, it has returned to the appreciation interval, especially since July, which has often continued to rise for five or six consecutive days and has a strong willingness to appreciate.

As for the rise of the renminbi, most scholars believe that the rally will continue, and that the economic fundamentals are good is one of the reasons for supporting the rise of the RMB exchange rate, but it is not the only reason.

First of all, export data is improving to enhance enterprise confidence.

Following the introduction of the "opinions on supporting steady growth of foreign trade" issued by the general office of the State Council in May, from the central government to the local authorities, the supporting measures have been implemented and the level of trade facilitation has been gradually enhanced, which has stimulated the vitality of the market players, and the policy effect is remarkable.

Among them, the performance of private enterprises was extremely active, and exports increased by 23.6% over the same period last year. It has been the biggest month of growth this year, and directly stimulated the export data in July.

As the steady growth policy of foreign trade continues to appear, it has boosted the export confidence of enterprises.

Export growth rebounded in July, and exports achieved two digit growth in the month, reaching a 14.5% growth rate, supporting the trend of the renminbi.

Secondly, the expansion of floating rate reflects the marketization of foreign exchange reform, indicating that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has taken an important step in the direction of marketization.

According to the data released by the central bank, the balance of foreign exchange held by financial institutions at the end of 7 was 29 trillion and 489 billion 176 million yuan, an increase of 37 billion 835 million yuan compared with the 29 trillion and 451 billion 341 million yuan at the end of 6, ending a continuous negative growth trend.

According to Sheng Songcheng, director of the central bank's investigation and Statistics Division, China's central bank's foreign exchange holdings decreased by two hundred million yuan in July, less than 122 billion 500 million yuan over the past 5 years.

This shows that the contribution of new foreign exchange reserves to the money supply is declining significantly.

"From May to July this year, the new foreign exchange situation is 400 million yuan, -868 billion yuan and -2 billion yuan, of which 6, July foreign exchange funds.

There has been a net decrease. "

Some analysts believe that this shows that the central bank has basically withdrawn from the normal intervention of the foreign exchange market.

In addition, for foreign trade enterprises, there have been several experiences in foreign exchange reform, and there has been a good understanding of hedging in exchange rate fluctuations.

"Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has fluctuated greatly, but we have not been affected too much."

In August 29th, the head of a food import and export company said that the general enterprises would lock in the exchange rate ahead of time to reduce the loss of profits caused by exchange rate fluctuations.

Only in

When the dollar exchange rate fluctuates much larger than in previous years, the order volume will change, but the impact is not big.

However, this kind of

It may also be a temporary phenomenon, and the renminbi is also facing downside risks.

As the Federal Reserve prepares to end quantitative easing later this year, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will be affected.

Market participants said that in the short term, the renminbi may not replicate the previous week's one hundred or two hundred rise.

"As a whole, the settlement of exchange is still too large. The main appreciation pressure comes from the trade surplus, but in the vicinity of 6.14 yuan, the market is hesitant, and the short-term upward trend may slow down."

In this regard, financial expert Zhao Qingming told reporters that from a technical point of view, the market will be cautious in the short term, the future RMB exchange rate fluctuations will be more significant.