China'S A Shares May Be In The Early Stages Of The Bull Market.

As China's stock market has always been "dead long" Guotai Junan said in the latest research report, at present, A may be in the beginning of a round of Daniel market.

Even if domestic economic downside risks intensify in the future, the stock market is also expected to go out of the bull market.

Ren Zeping, chief macroeconomic analyst at the Institute, pointed out that the traditional "cyclical macro" logic is that only when the economy recovers, can the stock market take the bull.

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Deleveraging becomes the theme, and the economy slows down into a big probability event.

However, the excess capacity and the compression of local debt make risk-free interest rates sinking trend and bull market catalyst.

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China pointed out that this year, with the long term adjustment of the real estate market as a symbol, China's economy has entered the second half of the growth shift period, and the market has been clearing up and deleveraging and speeding up reform.

The report said that the recent reforms will speed up the long-term prospects of China's economy and enhance the risk preference of domestic and foreign investors to the A share market.

With the long term adjustment of real estate opened and the risk-free interest rate sinking, the yield of competitive assets such as commercial housing, financial management and trust has declined, and the preferences of residents' asset allocation have begun to tilt toward stocks, which has improved the capital market of the stock market.

The report also shows that from the international experience, there are two possible prospects in the second half of the economic growth shift.

First, the process of deleveraging may trigger a crisis, and the central bank will release large quantities of water and risk free interest rates will fall.

The second is to take the initiative to reform and break the old and establish new ones.