The Price Of Cotton Is Not Clear Yet.

"The policy of the state has fallen to the ground, but the specific price of subsidy is the average price of 9~11 months. The ginning factory has to wait until November to calculate the cost. Now the ginning mills dare not buy the goods, and the cotton factories do not dare to receive cotton from the cotton growers' hands. Many factories are in order to maintain the stability of the workforce."

Sichuan Jintai Textile Group Co., Ltd., general manager of the 27 day to accept the "First Financial Daily" reporter interviewed to see cotton prices "bottom" expressed concern.

According to the cotton textile industry association tracking enterprise data, China's yarn production increased by 0.4% over the same period last month, and the total output of cloth increased by 3.1% over the same period last year. 1~6

1~6 month cotton textile enterprises start is still not optimistic.

Among them, the average operating rate of tracking large enterprises is 90%, the average operating rate of SMEs is 60%~70%, and the average operating rate of small cluster enterprises is only 50%.

For such a situation, Zhang Xianbin, director of commodity division of the State Economic and Trade Commission of the national development and Reform Commission, expressed his understanding of the concerns of the enterprises. He is trying to convey the signal that the enterprises in the cotton industry chain are at ease.

"I hope I can give you confidence and there are many worries at the moment.

The output, reserve stock and import are three aspects of supply, and the latter are controllable.

Everyone has some pessimism now, but there is a certain gap compared with the demand of the year's output.

I feel confident that domestic prices will be relatively stable.

"

In an interview with reporters, he also said that from purchasing and storage policy to direct subsidy policy, the focus of attention has shifted from cotton farmers to enterprises in circulation.

"Prices will be more market-oriented in the future."

He said.

The fluctuation of cotton prices this year will not allow cotton textile enterprises to "catch up".

1~2 cotton market prices basically stable, affected by seasonal factors, textile enterprises orders slowing.

In March, the market rumors that the reserve policy would be adjusted, cotton prices began to loosen, cotton prices rose 3%, domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed, and textile enterprises orders were mainly replenishment.

In April, the price of reserve cotton was reduced to 17250 yuan / ton. During the same period, the state explicitly cancelled the temporary purchase and storage of cotton and implemented the target price subsidy policy.

Cotton fell sharply over the past 4~5 months, falling more than the decline in cotton prices. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed to 3000 yuan / ton.

Textile enterprises raw materials and yarn inventory depreciation, orders growth again slowed down, mainly to digest inventory.

In 6~7 months, the price of cotton gradually dropped to the close of the reserve cotton paction price. The decline slowed down, and the cotton prices still dropped considerably, and the price difference rose to 4000 yuan / ton.

"In the past, there was a general expectation of cotton prices, which has become a direct subsidy policy this year. There is still a period from the new cotton listing. Now cotton prices are still going down and fluctuating.

Buying cotton is self defeating now, "said a cotton textile company who did not want to be named.

In this case, Wang Qingcui, Secretary General of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, revealed that in the 1~8 months of this year, the loss of cotton textile industry in China increased by 29% compared with the same period last year, and the main business income decreased by 1.26%, the total profit decreased by 25.99%, and the total number of employees decreased by 5.6%.

Zhang Xianbin said that although the country has a large inventory, but in order to allow cotton enterprises to buy new cotton processing at a premium, priority is given to the sale of new cotton.

It will not be released until at least March 2015.

And whether new cotton will be sold after March, other indicators are needed as a precondition, such as a shortage of supply in the market, a rise in price and a new sales progress of 70%~80%.

Moreover, the state will arrange well for cotton imports.

In principle, this year, no more import quotas will be added except 894 thousand tons of 1% import quotas for tariffs.

"Will the future policy become a neutral factor, or will it return to the market price?"

Yang Zhijiang, general manager of Shanghai business department, China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd.

In his view, it is clear that the target price subsidy will be the fundamental factor affecting the domestic cotton price in the new year, according to the principle of "price difference". The cotton price will be reduced by the policy influence, and the basic price of the supply and demand will begin to return. The difference between the inside and outside cotton prices will gradually shrink, and the domestic cotton price in the new year will be close to the price of the imported cotton port.