Fourth Quarter Economic Growth Is Expected To Rebound Steadily

GDP is expected to grow by 7.3% in the three quarter, and the fourth quarter is expected to grow steadily. The annual GDP growth rate is expected to be around 7.4%. For the trend of international economic operation, the author expects that the global economic growth will drop slightly, and the global economic growth in 2014 will be 3%.

Benefiting from the obvious growth of business investment, retail sales and foreign trade, the US GDP grew by 4.6% in the second quarter of this year, the biggest increase since the fourth quarter of 2011. The recent fed meeting has said that it will maintain ultra-low interest rates, and will reduce the scale of debt purchases to $15 billion since October. QE is coming to an end. Interest rate hikes still depend on the "forward-looking guidelines", which may be in next spring.

Economic growth in the euro area is on the verge of stagnation. In the two quarter, the overall GDP in the euro zone grew by only 0.1%, almost stagnating. Affected by the expected decline in German economic growth, the euro area ZEW economic index declined for the three consecutive month, indicating that the possibility of economic stagnation or recession in the three quarter has increased. The European Central Bank's first round of long term loan scheme (TLTRO) is smaller than expected, and will expand further in the future.

The two quarter was hit by the huge impact of the excise tax increase, and the Japanese GDP contracted sharply by 7.1%. With the gradual decline of negative effects in the three quarter, the economy is recovering. In September, the manufacturing industry PMI was 51.7, indicating that the manufacturing industry was gradually recovering. In August, the trade deficit narrowed slightly, but the 1.3% negative growth of exports showed that the competitiveness of Japanese enterprises was still sluggish for a long time. Inflation rose 3.3% in August, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points. Economic data are mixed. The policy effect of Andouble's structural reform remains to be seen.

Major emerging economies are in deep stagflation. India's growth rate has dropped, and the economies of Russia, Brazil and South Africa have been bogged down in stagflation. India's GDP growth slowed to 5.9% in the two quarter from 6.1% in the previous quarter. Russia dropped from 0.9% to 0.8%, South Africa dropped from 1.7% to 1%, while Brazil showed a decline of 0.9% over the same period. Meanwhile, the inflation rate of BRICs in China is above 6% in August. In the future, emerging economies will face the risk of capital outflow brought by the withdrawal of us QE while they are facing a slowdown in growth and economic restructuring.

For the domestic economic situation in September, I believe that the growth rate of fixed asset investment will continue to decline. Real estate investment will continue to slump under the pressure of "de Stocking"; manufacturing investment will be dragged down by domestic demand; infrastructure investment growth will be affected by last year's high base; the growth of fixed asset investment in the first three quarters is expected to continue to decline to 16.3%.

The nominal growth rate of social consumption will drop slightly. The growth rate of consumption in real estate related industries will still slow down. The nominal growth rate of social consumption will decline slightly under domestic demand. The nominal growth rate in September will fall to 11.8%.

Import and export growth will pick up slightly. The US economic recovery has strongly promoted external demand, and exports are expected to rise to 9.6% year-on-year in September. Due to strong RMB exchange rate and low international commodity prices, imports in September are expected to narrow to 1.3% year-on-year.

The growth rate of industrial added value will rebound. Last year, the high base effect would be weakened. Meanwhile, the official manufacturing expectations index in August and the HSBC manufacturing PMI initial value rose in September, reflecting the recovery of the real economy. It is estimated that the growth rate of industrial added value will rise to 7.8% in September.

CPI will continue to narrow. The tail effect is gradually weakening, and the peak season for supply of agricultural products is coming. The downward trend of food prices will narrow the CPI growth. It is expected that the growth rate will decline to 1.8% in September.

The supply of money will remain stable and the scale of social financing will remain at a normal level. The financial data in August have basically returned from normal fluctuations in July to normal levels. At the same time, the central bank still insists that the overall supply level of money will not change, but the downward pressure on the economy will increase. The intensity of targeted easing will be strengthened. It is expected that M2 will rise to 13.1% in September and the new RMB loans will rise to 710 billion yuan. Interest rates will remain moderate. The premise that the total amount of money will remain stable will not change. In order to stabilize economic growth and reduce the financing cost of enterprises, interest rates will remain low.

The exchange rate will fall first and then rise. In order to promote exports and suppress the one-way appreciation of the renminbi, the central bank will affect the exchange rate movements through market manipulation. It is expected that the US dollar will decline to a 6.15 high after its exchange rate will reach RMB.

To sum up, the policy target of achieving 7.5% in the three quarter is somewhat difficult. However, the optimization of the economic structure can appropriately increase the tolerance of the slowdown. It is estimated that GDP will increase by 7.3% in the three quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to stabilize and pick up, and the economic growth of the whole year will not deviate from the policy target.

After entering 7 and August, some important economic indicators fluctuated, and the downward pressure on the economy increased. However, the short-term economic fluctuations should not affect the long-term economic reform. At present, we should maintain the power of macroeconomic regulation and control, and continue to stimulate the market's vitality through reform under the "new normal" of the economy.

The "new normal" of China's economy can be interpreted from two aspects: "quantity" and "quality". In terms of quantity, within the scheduled year Employment objective (10 million) basically realized (9 million 700 thousand), while inflation remained at a low level (around 2%), reflecting the benefits of the people's livelihood. target It has been effectively guaranteed. From the "quality" aspect, first of all, the proportion of the third industry is increasing, and the high and new manufacturing industry in the second industry has also maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the economic structure has been continuously optimized. Secondly, the connotation of economic development is more inclusive, and environmental protection indicators instead of the pure GDP dimension.

The author suggests that we should strive to achieve the goal of "steady growth, promoting reform, adjusting the structure and benefiting people". The improvement of "ecology" and "people's livelihood", the improvement of quality of life and the quality of the environment should be taken as the "starting point" and "foothold" of economic development.

Should take reform Invigorate the market. Under the "new normal" of the economy, the reform policy also has more room to play, and the core of the reform is to stimulate the vitality of the market. First, introduce the market mechanism in the past administrative field. For example, we should establish an open market mechanism for issuing local debt. Second, in the past semi market, monopolistic industries and areas to introduce market forces. For example, in the transportation, energy and other state-owned enterprises to carry out mixed ownership reform, to strengthen the market constraints of enterprises. Third, while lighten the burden of the existing market participants, we should actively foster new market players and expand the market capacity as a whole. For example, tax and fee waiver is constantly introduced to simplify the administrative registration and approval process, and guide more people to choose entrepreneurship and stimulate the vitality of small and micro enterprises.

We should open up and expand the market space. "Opening up" is a two-way opening. It is not only to open up the domestic market actively to the public capital and foreign capital, but also to strive to open up the overseas market to the Chinese enterprises market. Only by two-way opening can we expand the market space to the maximum and form a healthy competition.

Innovation driven alternative factors should be driven. From the recent economic data, we can see that the contribution rate of factor driven traditional industries to economic development is declining, driven by innovation driven substitution factors.