Gu Mingde: Shanghai And Hong Kong Is Not A Feast For Big Cap Stocks.

Shanghai and Hong Kong are coming, many investors abandon gem or even the main board market small cap stocks, and buy big blue chips.

Assuming that after the Shanghai and Hong Kong pass, large cap stocks will rise, small cap stocks will be left behind.

In fact, the stock speculation is not so simple. In the first half of the year, the two exchanges announced that when the two places were connected, the Shanghai and Hong Kong AH price share, the blue chip A shares with discount on H-shares, about 40 listed companies, with a discount of about 20%, about 20.

So far, the highest discount Vanke, less than 15%.

The total discount rate is less than 20 listed companies, with a discount rate of only about 10%.

Gross

Especially for small and medium banks, H-shares have a discount on A shares.

The price of the five major commercial banks is basically in line with the current exchange rate between Hong Kong dollar and RMB.

On the contrary, many small cap H-shares are much lower than A shares, with a big discount.

This shows that in the first half of the year when the two exchanges announced that they would interoperate in the second half of the year,

The average price of the blue chips in the exchanges has increased by about 15%, while the prices of Hongkong H-shares are relatively stable.

The stock market blue chips in the two markets are basically disappearing according to the current exchange rate.

For overseas funds, if we need to buy large blue chips, we can buy a lot of shares on the Hongkong stock exchange, but there will be a quantity limit, not unlimited, to the Shanghai Stock Exchange. If the arbitrage space is large, it will certainly swarm into the market.

Today, prices are basically the same, and there is no need to arbitrage for the purpose of entering the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Transposition, if I am an offshore fund, I am going to buy the Shanghai stock exchange through the Hong Kong stock exchange. Is it a large blue chip stock that is specifically bought by banks? The problem is that the same price can be bought in large quantities in the Hongkong stock exchange. Why do we need to go far?

In recent years, the concept of foreign capital in stock selection is very close to domestic capital.

In the stock structure listed on the US stock exchange, the average price earnings ratio of traditional industries, cyclical industries, banks and other financial institutions is relatively low.

High tech, Internet, new energy, new technology and other listed companies have higher or even higher valuations and price earnings ratios.

At present, Alibaba's listing price of US $more than 100 is going to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. What price do you dare to think about?

From this, I infer that after the Shanghai and Hong Kong links,

It is still at a relatively stable stage.

The sharp drop is only a short-term event.

The real benefits are those of high technology, new technology, new energy, software development, robots, Internet and so on.

Once these companies are understood by overseas funds, their valuation will be greatly improved.

In addition, after the Shanghai and Hong Kong links, 80% of domestic investors are individual and retail investors.

Daily volume capital is still mainly domestic investors, while foreign capital accounts for only a small proportion. Although influential, it is absolutely impossible to become the main force of the Shanghai stock exchange volume. It is just like that when QFII funds entered the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, it was thought that it would change the structure of Shanghai and Shenzhen investors and the structure of stock price volatility. Finally, it was found that the proportion of offshore funds was too small to dominate the market.

Similarly, after the Shanghai and Hong Kong pass, the funds that affect the stock price structure must be domestic institutions and individual retail investors.

We must never sell panic stocks in the hands of small cap stocks with prospects for development.