Southern Xinjiang, The Price Of Wild Flowers Will End In The End Of The Month Of The Northern Xinjiang.

In November 19th, the seed cotton continued to be sold in Akesu, Kashi and other regions in southern Xinjiang. At present, the sales volume was about 80%, and the acquisition in Bazhou basically ended. In the middle term, the mainstream price of seed cotton is 6.00-6.20 yuan / kg, and the price of frost is relatively chaotic. Main stream The purchase price is less than 5.80 yuan / kg, while some districts and counties are in the 5.20-5.30 yuan / kg, with the quality of seed cotton decreasing and cotton enterprises stopping increasing. lint Platform quotation basically stable at 14400-14600 yuan / ton, downstream inquiry mining intensity is not good, local cotton enterprises pressure is bigger. Because the cost of lint has been basically determined, some cotton enterprises which do not agree with the price continue to sell.

　　 Northern Xinjiang Hand picked cotton has been basically unlimited, and the proportion of machine picked cotton and tail flowers has increased gradually. The number of cotton stopping enterprises has increased recently. It is expected that the seed cotton will be basically over before the end of the month. At present, a small quantity of hand picked cotton is quoted at 5.80-6.00 yuan / kg, and high quality seed cotton is scarce. The mainstream purchase price of medium term cotton picking is 4.90-5.00 yuan / kg, while the tail flower is generally less than 4.50 yuan / kg. At present, the mainstream pick-up price of the cotton lint platform is around 14400 yuan / ton, and the actual turnover can be negotiated. The mainstream price of machine picked cotton is 13500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of lint is relatively stable. However, the volume of the platform has obviously declined in recent years, and it is hard to support cotton prices in the short term.

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According to the latest statistics of WIND, the added value of textile industry increased by 6.3% over the same period in October, an increase of 1 percentage points from the previous month. However, judging from the trend of the textile industry added value in the past three years, the added value of the textile industry is still low.

In October, China's cotton textile industry purchasing managers index (PMI) was 46%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the previous month. The new order situation of cotton textile enterprises has improved this month, which is also the main reason for the decline of yarn and grey stock in textile enterprises in October. With the passing of the peak season, it is expected that the volume of new orders will be limited. In October, China exported $26 billion 538 million in textile and clothing, a decrease of 7.05% in the annulus, which has been declining for two consecutive months.

At present, consumption is not enough, textile enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. According to the survey data of China cotton information network, as of the end of October, the stock of cotton in the textile enterprises was 482 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 4 thousand and 700 tons from the previous month. Of the surveyed enterprises, 36% reduced cotton inventories and 44% increased cotton inventories. In October, the inventory of cotton industry in textile enterprises increased slightly. On the one hand, before the textile mill experienced a blank period of cotton raw materials, most of the enterprises were short of cotton. When the new flower was listed, the new cotton replenishment stock with better quality was selected. On the other hand, in the early stage of the new flower listing, the textile enterprises went to Xinjiang to purchase high-quality new flowers, so as to prevent the quality of the late listed cotton from falling.

According to the latest forecast data from USDA, cotton supply and demand in China showed a tight balance pattern in 2014/2015, and the surplus of cotton supply was transferred from 2 million 694 thousand tons in 2013/2014 to 109 thousand tons. In terms of end inventory, although 2014/2015 has been reduced by 120 thousand tons over the previous year, it is still a huge volume of 13 million 533 thousand tons, far exceeding cotton consumption in one year. Therefore, high inventory will continue to restrict the uplink of China's cotton price operation.

To sum up, at the end of this year's end of the cotton market in China, and the current textile consumption in the lower reaches is still not improving, it is expected that the cotton price will remain downward. In addition, we are concerned about the purchasing trend of downstream textile enterprises. After all, Zheng cotton price and spot cotton price show a reverse pattern. When Zheng cotton price is obviously lower than spot price, it is still very attractive for textile enterprises.